The Australian election result has come as a shock. With more than three-quarters of the votes counted, prime minister Scott Morrison has secured a majority government and his Liberal-National coalition has taken 76 out of 151 seats in the lower House of Representatives, confounding pollsters, commentators and election-watchers. The centre-left opposition Labor party had led in the polls for three years and was cruising to a supposed victory. But the only poll that matters – the one held on election day – showed they were all wrong, including Newspoll on the eve of the election, which is traditionally accurate in matching the next day’s result. Even the exit poll commissioned for the Nine Network television broadcaster as ballot stations closed was also wrong.
No one has a clear answer for why the polls, always an inexact science, were so out of kilter with community sentiment but there are plenty of theories abounding. Ipsos, Galaxy, Essential and others have pointed out that they were within the 3 per cent margin of error, but that only goes some way to explaining the surprise result. Essential’s executive director Peter Lewis went so far as to say the polls were “an accurate reflection of where the public was at the start of the week and there was a move to the government in the final days of the campaign”. He also pointed to 8 per cent of voters polled being undecided a week before casting their votes.
The Morrison product, combined with his relentless message that the opposition posed an economic risk, worked, especially in Queensland, Australia's most socially conservative state, heavily reliant on coal-mining and industry
Other theories include the notion that Australia is relentlessly over-polled and voters have begun to lie to pollsters to rig the result. Anecdotally, voters stated on radio call-ins and social media that they had deliberately done so. A theory more widely shared is that the death of the landline phone is making it harder for pollsters to reach huge parts of the population. I, for instance, have only ever had a mobile telephone number registered in my name. When I left home in 2001, aged 17, I left behind the idea of having a landline phone. This generational shift to unlisted mobile phone numbers makes it harder for polling companies to obtain a sample that genuinely represents the country, particularly where younger voters are concerned.
But the polling failure is only subsidiary to the opposition’s disastrous blunder in losing what was widely considered to be an “unlosable” election.
It was not just polling predictions that had given the Labor opposition confidence that it would win office. In August last year, when the Liberal party knocked then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull off his pedestal in a divisive coup and replaced him with Mr Morrison, the expectation was that the electorate would repeat history and punish the government for the unseemly chaos, just as it had done in the 2013 election after the Labor party switched prime ministers twice in its six years in office.
Then, the Coalition leader was Tony Abbott, who, although widely viewed as unpopular, managed to deliver a landslide victory. In 2019, history was expected to repeat itself. Instead, voters upended expectations. And, contrary to predictions, the leadership handover from Mr Turnbull to Mr Morrison in August 2018 was the reason.
Mr Turnbull, an independently wealthy businessman who came to politics late in life, found it difficult to connect with an Australian electorate that has historically rewarded leaders with the common touch. Mr Morrison, a footy-loving, plain-speaking, baseball cap-wearing father of two girls, and evangelical Christian from the suburbs of Sydney to boot, ticked the “knockabout bloke” box.
By contrast, Labor’s Bill Shorten, who quit as party leader two days ago after his humiliating defeat, had never inspired voters, despite having six years to improve his image. With poor communication skills and an air of faux sincerity, he remained viable only because he was able to attack Mr Turnbull as rich and therefore out of touch.
So confident was the Labor party when Mr Turnbull was the prime minister that it bravely did what no opposition has done since 1993 – it put forward a bold agenda of tax changes. The polls still showed Labor in the lead, even as Mr Morrison launched an all-out assault on the policies, claiming they would equate to $387 billion in tax increases.
What the polls failed to show was the government’s attack was beginning to work. Labor had bitten off more than it could ably chew in one go, by trying to close tax loopholes for share owners and property investors. Combined with a deeply unpopular leader, whose performance faltered as the campaign progressed, Labor MPs began privately conceding that their leader was holding them back in a country that is obsessed with property prices and the level of interest rates.
Still, no one imagined the Coalition could drag itself back from the utter chaos of less than a year ago. But Mr Morrison proved an adroit campaigner. Borrowing from the school of US President Donald Trump, he donned a baseball cap, ate meat pies and drank beers for the camera, spoke in plain language and cleverly posed as an outsider, quite apart from the “Canberra bubble” he was so fond of lambasting, comprising Australia’s political elite.
He made no secret of his evangelical faith and proudly and prominently wore an Australian flag badge on his lapel. Australia is a proudly secular society and is not prone to constant displays of patriotism but it resonated with those whom Mr Morrison dubbed on election night as the “quiet Australians”, many of whom hail from Australia’s growing migrant population – often religious, aspirational and fierce proponents of family values.
The Morrison product, combined with his relentless message that the opposition posed an economic risk, worked, especially in Queensland, Australia’s most socially conservative state, heavily reliant on coal-mining and industry. There, Labor’s pledge to raise Australia’s carbon reduction targets to 50 per cent was viewed as a threat to local jobs, and one imposed on them by morally superior southerners, no less.
Mr Morrison’s win has destroyed political norms in Australia and will likely end daring tax changes from either side of the political spectrum for decades. It will cause a crisis of confidence in the centre-left about whether the bulk of Australians are as ready to embrace progressiveness and radical economic change as the noisy inhabitants of social media can suggest – wrongly, as it now turns out. It will justify leadership changes, despite the two major parties' attempts to impose strict rules on MPs to stop the revolving door of Australia’s prime ministership, which has made it an international laughing stock. And the failure of the polls, obsessively reported by Australian news outlets, will only further weaken trust in the media at time when journalists worldwide are trying to restore faith in traditional media and defend themselves against charges of fake news.
Latika Bourke is an Australian journalist with the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age newspapers and worked as a Canberra press gallery correspondent covering the Australian parliament for eight years
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
Results
57kg quarter-finals
Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Hamed Al Matari (YEM) by points 3-0.
60kg quarter-finals
Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) beat Hyan Aljmyah (SYR) RSC round 2.
63.5kg quarter-finals
Nouredine Samir (UAE) beat Shamlan A Othman (KUW) by points 3-0.
67kg quarter-finals
Mohammed Mardi (UAE) beat Ahmad Ondash (LBN) by points 2-1.
71kg quarter-finals
Ahmad Bahman (UAE) defeated Lalthasanga Lelhchhun (IND) by points 3-0.
Amine El Moatassime (UAE) beat Seyed Kaveh Safakhaneh (IRI) by points 3-0.
81kg quarter-finals
Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Ahmad Hilal (PLE) by points 3-0
T10 Cricket League
Sharjah Cricket Stadium
December 14- 17
6pm, Opening ceremony, followed by:
Bengal Tigers v Kerala Kings
Maratha Arabians v Pakhtoons
Tickets available online at q-tickets.com/t10
BACK%20TO%20ALEXANDRIA
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The language of diplomacy in 1853
Treaty of Peace in Perpetuity Agreed Upon by the Chiefs of the Arabian Coast on Behalf of Themselves, Their Heirs and Successors Under the Mediation of the Resident of the Persian Gulf, 1853
(This treaty gave the region the name “Trucial States”.)
We, whose seals are hereunto affixed, Sheikh Sultan bin Suggar, Chief of Rassool-Kheimah, Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon, Chief of Aboo Dhebbee, Sheikh Saeed bin Buyte, Chief of Debay, Sheikh Hamid bin Rashed, Chief of Ejman, Sheikh Abdoola bin Rashed, Chief of Umm-ool-Keiweyn, having experienced for a series of years the benefits and advantages resulting from a maritime truce contracted amongst ourselves under the mediation of the Resident in the Persian Gulf and renewed from time to time up to the present period, and being fully impressed, therefore, with a sense of evil consequence formerly arising, from the prosecution of our feuds at sea, whereby our subjects and dependants were prevented from carrying on the pearl fishery in security, and were exposed to interruption and molestation when passing on their lawful occasions, accordingly, we, as aforesaid have determined, for ourselves, our heirs and successors, to conclude together a lasting and inviolable peace from this time forth in perpetuity.
Taken from Britain and Saudi Arabia, 1925-1939: the Imperial Oasis, by Clive Leatherdale
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
23-man shortlist for next six Hall of Fame inductees
Tony Adams, David Beckham, Dennis Bergkamp, Sol Campbell, Eric Cantona, Andrew Cole, Ashley Cole, Didier Drogba, Les Ferdinand, Rio Ferdinand, Robbie Fowler, Steven Gerrard, Roy Keane, Frank Lampard, Matt Le Tissier, Michael Owen, Peter Schmeichel, Paul Scholes, John Terry, Robin van Persie, Nemanja Vidic, Patrick Viera, Ian Wright.
The 12 Syrian entities delisted by UK
Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Defence
General Intelligence Directorate
Air Force Intelligence Agency
Political Security Directorate
Syrian National Security Bureau
Military Intelligence Directorate
Army Supply Bureau
General Organisation of Radio and TV
Al Watan newspaper
Cham Press TV
Sama TV
Terminator: Dark Fate
Director: Tim Miller
Starring: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Linda Hamilton, Mackenzie Davis
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
Results
6.30pm Madjani Stakes Rated Conditions (PA) I Dh160,000 I 1,900m I Winner: Mawahib, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
7.05pm Maiden Dh150,000 I 1,400m I Winner One Season, Antonio Fresu, Satish Seemar
7.40pm: Maiden Dh150,000 I 2,000m I Winner Street Of Dreams, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
8.15pm Dubai Creek Listed I Dh250,000 I 1,600m I Winner Heavy Metal, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
8.50pm The Entisar Listed I Dh250,000 I 2,000m I Winner Etijaah, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson
9.25pm The Garhoud Listed I Dh250,000 I 1,200m I Winner Muarrab, Dane O’Neill, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
10pm Handicap I Dh160,000 I 1,600m I Winner Sea Skimmer, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
Emirates Cricket Board Women’s T10
ECB Hawks v ECB Falcons
Monday, April 6, 7.30pm, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
The match will be broadcast live on the My Sports Eye Facebook page
Hawks
Coach: Chaitrali Kalgutkar
Squad: Chaya Mughal (captain), Archara Supriya, Chamani Senevirathne, Chathurika Anand, Geethika Jyothis, Indhuja Nandakumar, Kashish Loungani, Khushi Sharma, Khushi Tanwar, Rinitha Rajith, Siddhi Pagarani, Siya Gokhale, Subha Srinivasan, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish
Falcons
Coach: Najeeb Amar
Squad: Kavisha Kumari (captain), Almaseera Jahangir, Annika Shivpuri, Archisha Mukherjee, Judit Cleetus, Ishani Senavirathne, Lavanya Keny, Mahika Gaur, Malavika Unnithan, Rishitha Rajith, Rithika Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Shashini Kaluarachchi, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Vaishnave Mahesh
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE Falcons
Carly Lewis (captain), Emily Fensome, Kelly Loy, Isabel Affley, Jessica Cronin, Jemma Eley, Jenna Guy, Kate Lewis, Megan Polley, Charlie Preston, Becki Quigley and Sophie Siffre. Deb Jones and Lucia Sdao – coach and assistant coach.
GROUPS AND FIXTURES
Group A
UAE, Italy, Japan, Spain
Group B
Egypt, Iran, Mexico, Russia
Tuesday
4.15pm: Italy v Japan
5.30pm: Spain v UAE
6.45pm: Egypt v Russia
8pm: Iran v Mexico
Fight Night
FIGHT NIGHT
Four title fights:
Amir Khan v Billy Dib - WBC International title
Hughie Fury v Samuel Peter - Heavyweight co-main event
Dave Penalosa v Lerato Dlamini - WBC Silver title
Prince Patel v Michell Banquiz - IBO World title
Six undercard bouts:
Michael Hennessy Jr v Abdul Julaidan Fatah
Amandeep Singh v Shakhobidin Zoirov
Zuhayr Al Qahtani v Farhad Hazratzada
Lolito Sonsona v Isack Junior
Rodrigo Caraballo v Sajid Abid
Ali Kiydin v Hemi Ahio
MATCH INFO
Rajasthan Royals 158-8 (20 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab 143/7 (20 ovs)
Rajasthan Royals won by 15 runs
More coverage from the Future Forum
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
What is hepatitis?
Hepatitis is an inflammation of the liver, which can lead to fibrosis (scarring), cirrhosis or liver cancer.
There are 5 main hepatitis viruses, referred to as types A, B, C, D and E.
Hepatitis C is mostly transmitted through exposure to infective blood. This can occur through blood transfusions, contaminated injections during medical procedures, and through injecting drugs. Sexual transmission is also possible, but is much less common.
People infected with hepatitis C experience few or no symptoms, meaning they can live with the virus for years without being diagnosed. This delay in treatment can increase the risk of significant liver damage.
There are an estimated 170 million carriers of Hepatitis C around the world.
The virus causes approximately 399,000 fatalities each year worldwide, according to WHO.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The%20specs
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SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%20Supercharged%203.5-litre%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20400hp%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20430Nm%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh450%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Honeymoonish
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Elie%20El%20Samaan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENour%20Al%20Ghandour%2C%20Mahmoud%20Boushahri%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh135,000
Engine 1.6L turbo
Gearbox Six speed automatic with manual and sports mode
Power 165hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 240Nm @ 1,400rpm 0-100kph: 9.2 seconds
Top speed 420 kph (governed)
Fuel economy, combined 35.2L / 100km (est)
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
