Imagine this. You see a photograph of a horse. A snapshot. This horse looks like it’s suspended in the air, hooves not touching the ground in mid-stride. Pure levitation.
This is one frame of the animal running at full speed. But with the understanding of movement removed, we only see and appreciate that particular moment.
That frame is what change often looks like.
We think of change as an end state that is different to the original state. For example, the horse reaching a finish line versus the start of the race. The transition to an end state is made up of an infinite number of micro-changes, so small that they are not noticeable. The horse in that photo in mid-air is a step, a change in position, towards the end state of crossing the finish line.
Were it not for our knowledge of what the end state looks like – in this case, crossing the finish line – we would find it hard to understand that change is afoot. But it’s precisely because we know what the end state is, that we are excited about the change in a race.
A carnival float displays figures depicting the climate change in Duesseldorf, Germany. Reuters
Let’s think of the opposite situation, when we don’t know what the end state is going to be and we risk not grasping that change is happening. Have we ever been in such a situation? Or, have we ever not been?
In life and in politics there are often moments when we may be unsure about the future, and at the same time not realise that things are in flux.
I’m thinking of consequential episodes in history, such as those that caused conflict or initiated powerful social movements. Closer to us as individuals, a birth, the news of illness or the knowledge of unexpected opportunities will set our lives on new paths.
Sudden changes require us to rethink the fundamentals that we held to be true. They challenge our assumptions.
Alas, often there is an asymmetry of information: a social activist imagines one kind of future. A terrorist aims for another. A doctor informing someone about an illness has a course of treatment in mind and information about the life that might ensue. Even as a child is born, we have a social and cultural image of what life as a family would or should look like.
Here is the crux of this piece.
What if we know that change is happening, but nobody knows what the future will hold and how we will change? I would argue that we are in the middle of such a situation right now.
And although our collective horse-like levitation has lasted for well over a year, we are none the wiser. Don’t misunderstand. Businesses have digitised, schools moved online, support schemes started and so much more. We have thought, spoken and written about the new normal.
And yet, on a very practical level, we have all settled into habits that the situation seems to demand, without really, or sufficiently, examining and challenging whether this is what we want. Without critically exploring what future will follow.
At the best of times the future is uncertain. Saying that now, amid the Covid-19 pandemic, is a platitude. Reuters
We hope that the horse is not in the middle of a jump off a cliff
As countries have more or less shut down again, are we actually clear about the way we will emerge as a society from this lockdown and globally shared experience? Have you sat down with your family, friends or colleagues to ask how you see the future 10 or 20 years from now? What will the new normal look and feel like? What will it sound and smell like? How will our children interact as adults with other adults? What will be lost and gained? It is hard to understate the significance of this moment and its implication for the future.
At the best of times the future is uncertain. Saying that now is a platitude.
So, this is a call to action. An expression for the need to take stock and acknowledge that life is changing – that we are changing and that there is urgent need to collectively design what we and our world will change into.
This is not a fork in the road, no switch to be flicked: Covid-19 is with us for the long haul, perhaps for the majority of this decade.
So what could 2030 look like?
This is different to asking what you want the world to look like in 2030. But, if you have a compelling answer to both, we stand a better chance to come out of this with our collective sanity intact. It will also ensure that the suspended horse lands on solid ground, ready to take the next step. Unless we think about it, we will never know where this change is leading and can only hope that the horse is not in the middle of a jump off a cliff. And you know how I feel about hope as a strategy for the future.
Dr Patrick Noack is the executive director of future, foresight and imagination at the Dubai Future Foundation
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Girls full-contact rugby may be in its infancy in the Middle East, but there are already a number of role models for players to look up to.
Sophie Shams (Dubai Exiles mini, England sevens international)
An Emirati student who is blazing a trail in rugby. She first learnt the game at Dubai Exiles and captained her JESS Primary school team. After going to study geophysics at university in the UK, she scored a sensational try in a cup final at Twickenham. She has played for England sevens, and is now contracted to top Premiership club Saracens.
----
Seren Gough-Walters (Sharjah Wanderers mini, Wales rugby league international)
Few players anywhere will have taken a more circuitous route to playing rugby on Sky Sports. Gough-Walters was born in Al Wasl Hospital in Dubai, raised in Sharjah, did not take up rugby seriously till she was 15, has a master’s in global governance and ethics, and once worked as an immigration officer at the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi. In the summer of 2021 she played for Wales against England in rugby league, in a match that was broadcast live on TV.
----
Erin King (Dubai Hurricanes mini, Ireland sevens international)
Aged five, Australia-born King went to Dubai Hurricanes training at The Sevens with her brothers. She immediately struck up a deep affection for rugby. She returned to the city at the end of last year to play at the Dubai Rugby Sevens in the colours of Ireland in the Women’s World Series tournament on Pitch 1.
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
Day 3, Dubai Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Lahiru Gamage, the Sri Lanka pace bowler, has had to play a lot of cricket to earn a shot at the top level. The 29-year-old debutant first played a first-class game 11 years ago. His first Test wicket was one to savour, bowling Pakistan opener Shan Masood through the gate. It set the rot in motion for Pakistan’s batting.
Stat of the day – 73 Haris Sohail took 73 balls to hit a boundary. Which is a peculiar quirk, given the aggressive intent he showed from the off. Pakistan’s batsmen were implored to attack Rangana Herath after their implosion against his left-arm spin in Abu Dhabi. Haris did his best to oblige, smacking the second ball he faced for a huge straight six.
The verdict One year ago, when Pakistan played their first day-night Test at this ground, they held a 222-run lead over West Indies on first innings. The away side still pushed their hosts relatively close on the final night. With the opposite almost exactly the case this time around, Pakistan still have to hope they can salvage a win from somewhere.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
