Iran’s diplomats are scrambling to mobilise European, Chinese and Russian support to pressure the Biden administration into rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) without pre-conditions. They are also seeking international support for US-led sanctions to be lifted, including those on oil exports and arms imports.
These diplomatic efforts, led by Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, should not be construed as separate from Iran’s core foreign policy priorities being shaped by its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) militia. Rather, Tehran as a collective is pursuing a dual track of blackmail and provocation.
It is betting on what it perceives to be US President Joe Biden’s attempt to revoke his predecessor Donald Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear deal in his bid to stop Iran’s resumption of uranium enrichment and rapid development of nuclear weapons. Since Mr Trump abandoned the deal, Iran has been building up its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, refining uranium to a higher level of purity and using advanced centrifuges for enrichment.
Mr Biden has said that if Tehran resumes strict compliance with the 2015 agreement, Washington would rejoin it.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launch a missile during a drill in an unspecified location. AP Photo
The European Union is keen to revive the JCPOA. It is seen to be backtracking from previous statements calling for the deal to cover Iran’s regional behaviour and ballistic missiles programme, and is instead working on mending its ties to Tehran. Russia, meanwhile, has been cautious as it keeps in mind the two powers’ coinciding interests in Syria, where Moscow and Tehran both support the Assad regime. During Mr Zarif’s recent visit to Moscow, he sought to win support from Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov not just on the nuclear issue but also on Iran’s role in the region.
As I have written in these pages, Russia is keen to bring long-term stability to Syria by getting Iran and Israel to the table. But it remains to be seen whether Moscow can convince Israel to cease targeting Iranian assets in Syria if Tehran reduces its military footprint there and keeps its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah at bay. Right now, the focus is on trying to revive the JCPOA.
That Tehran is raising the stakes is evident from recent remarks made by its diplomats. Mr Zarif has warned that if no progress is made by mid-February, his government could step up its uranium enrichment activities. Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, also said that the US must act quickly or risk missing a chance to return to the JCPOA. It is worth noting that Iran’s hardline-dominated parliament has set February 21 as the deadline for Washington to lift sanctions against Tehran.
The regime appears confident of extracting concessions from the Biden administration, as it is convinced that the revival of the nuclear deal has become Washington’s problem. It also believes that it can escalate tensions when required – something the Biden team will not want right now.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, left, with Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on Tuesday. AP Photo
Amid Tehran's lobbying efforts, the US is figuring out the best way forward. Some members of the Biden team, notably National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, have sought to return to the deal as quickly as possible – a goal he has described as a "critical early priority" for the administration. But others, such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have expressed reservations about doing so. He has repeated Mr Biden's line of Tehran needing to resume compliance. Mr Blinken has also said that these conditions are not being satisfied at the moment.
On Friday, Tehran received what conservative critics in the US would characterise as good news upon hearing that Mr Biden had appointed Robert Malley, the Obama administration's lead negotiator in the nuclear deal, as his special envoy for Iran. It is, indeed, a move that could portend a reversal of former Mr Trump's maximum pressure campaign.
Mr Malley's appointment could be controversial even within the Biden team, on account of his interest in reviving the nuclear deal and lifting sanctions against Tehran. Those opposed to him in Washington may fear that his entry will embolden the IRGC to further its regional agenda, which includes supporting armed proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. Mr Malley’s critics might also blame him to some extent for the Obama administration’s allegedly calculated decision to overlook the atrocities being committed by the Tehran-backed Syrian regime, in order to persuade the Iranians to sign the JCPOA.
That was, of course, more than five years ago. This time, however, Mr Blinken – himself an Obama administration official – is said to be in no hurry to commit anything to anybody. This approach benefits the US negotiating position as well as American interests, because giving in to Iranian pressure will only expose Washington to what is essentially blackmail.
It would not be a mistake for Mr Blinken and Mr Sullivan to agree to preliminary, backchannel talks with Tehran – provided that they manage Iranian expectations and present a clear roadmap to them.
There is an opportunity if the Biden administration decides to not fear Iranian retribution and learn lessons from past mistakes. The administration will also do well to recall that it has real and effective leverage over Tehran. Whether it accepts it or not, that leverage is available to them due in large part to the Trump administration’s tough tactics against the regime. The Biden administration must now use it achieve what is in its best interests, as well as those of its allies in the region.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
Zakat definitions
Zakat: an Arabic word meaning ‘to cleanse’ or ‘purification’.
Nisab: the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to pay zakat. Traditionally, the nisab threshold was 87.48 grams of gold, or 612.36 grams of silver. The monetary value of the nisab therefore varies by current prices and currencies.
Zakat Al Mal: the ‘cleansing’ of wealth, as one of the five pillars of Islam; a spiritual duty for all Muslims meeting the ‘nisab’ wealth criteria in a lunar year, to pay 2.5 per cent of their wealth in alms to the deserving and needy.
Zakat Al Fitr: a donation to charity given during Ramadan, before Eid Al Fitr, in the form of food. Every adult Muslim who possesses food in excess of the needs of themselves and their family must pay two qadahs (an old measure just over 2 kilograms) of flour, wheat, barley or rice from each person in a household, as a minimum.
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
2018: Formal work begins
November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Know before you go
Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
