Over the past seven years, several interventions by outside powers in the Syrian conflict were provoked by militias. The story of each of those interventions demonstrates the folly of making final judgements about the status of the war.
ISIL caused the United States to intervene in 2014, when the militants took over about one third of Iraq and half of Syria. Then came the Russian intervention a year after, caused by the string of surprising gains made by Jaish Al Fatah in northwestern Syria in the early months of 2015. Turkey entered the scene the following year, to halt the expansion of the Kurdish YPG.
These interventions were punctuated by frequent airstrikes by Israel against Shia militia targets near its borders, as it sought to intercept any hostile build-up by Iran and its allied militias there. Iran had inaugurated the foreign interventions when it dispatched “pilgrims”, “technical advisers” and then militias to bolster Bashar Al Assad’s regime since the early months of the violence.
Most of these interventions also defied earlier calculations by those countries involved. The US intervention came despite the former administration's aversion to military involvement in the country. This reluctance about deep involvement continued even after the campaign against ISIL started, as the operation initially had an Iraq-first strategy.
Also, just a year before the US-led intervention, Washington backed off from a decision to conduct punitive strikes against the regime for its use of chemical weapons against civilians. Instead, it reached a deal with Russia to terminate the Syrian chemical weapon arsenal. The deal was touted as a historic accomplishment, relieving the regime of its stockpiles. Washington also worked to convene peace talks in Vienna between the regime and the opposition, and the last weapons were shipped out of Syria for destruction in the same month that ISIL took over Mosul, in June 2014.
Russia had also hoped that division of labour with Iran to support the regime, by shielding it at the Security Council and shoring it internally since 2012, respectively, would suffice. But a militia alliance led by Jabhat Al Nusra and Ahrar Al Sham, and sponsored by Turkey and Qatar, forced Russian hands, when it had to deploy troops inside Syria in September 2015.
It was then Turkey's turn to make a 180-degree shift to its Syria policy a year after. Ankara had previously focused on the toppling of Bashar Al Assad, and privately argued that his removal should take precedent over the defeating of extremists since the latter could be dealt with after that. But it made an about-face in August 2016, when it began Operation Euphrates Shield to create a zone that would preempt the Kurdish expansion and isolate their enclaves in northeast Syria from those in the north west.
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Ironically, Turkish support for Jaish Al Fatah had a key role in bringing Russian troops to Syria, while Russia’s presence later facilitated the Turkish intervention in Jarablous and lately in Afrin. Turkey then turned from the most dedicated sponsor of the rebels to, arguably, the greatest enabler of the Russian strategy, since the duo worked closely, along with Iran, to redraw the political and military map of the country, especially in the north.
Another irony is that the US, once vehemently opposed to involvement in Syria, now occupies one-third of the country. The American presence today is based on valid premises, notably the need to ensure that jihadis are properly defeated and do not return. But its presence comes at the backdrop of two other interventions, by Russia and Turkey, which further complicate the situation for the US.
In other words, Washington’s previous attempts to stay away failed, and the reality of the Syrian conflict forced it to intervene but in a more complicated environment. Instead of saving itself a headache, it paid a double price — an outcome befitting of the Arabic proverb “a stingy person ends up buying his lunch twice”.
Miscalculations and attempts to avoid doing what was necessary raised the costs for all those countries. The conflict can still cause new unforeseen scenarios in spite of recent assessments that the war was winding down and that Russia had finally set the trajectory of the situation in Syria in favour of its ally in Damascus. The Syrian army still suffers from the same problems that Mr Al Assad himself acknowledged about a month before the Russian intervention, when he said the army had a manpower shortage.
The serial quick defeats it suffered in early 2015 reflected brittleness that has only marginally addressed. Shortage in manpower has been compensated for by foreign militias or auxiliary forces directly supervised by Russia and Iran, which have led much of the fighting against its opponents in recent months.
But the increased role of these militias is inviting new conflicts in the country, as demonstrated in recent days. American strikes killed nearly 100 pro-regime forces, including around a dozen Russian mercenaries, after they attempted to attack the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in Deir Ezzor. Two days later, Israel conducted a round of strikes against Iran-linked bases and militias in central and southern Syria.
Rather than settling the situation in favour of Mr Al Assad, Russia and its allies are dancing a delicate dance in the country. Calmed frontlines have enabled the regime to move forces around the country. But no effort could strengthen the Syrian army to conduct large-scale operations that would enable it to take over significant territory in the foreseeable future.
The result seems to be a continuing status quo at least superficially. Beneath the surface, though, lies endless possibilities of miscalculation and future vulnerabilities, including to those opposed to the regime, as we have seen repeatedly over the past seven years.
2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Regional Qualifier
Saturday results
Qatar beat Kuwait by 26 runs
Bahrain beat Maldives by six wickets
UAE beat Saudi Arabia by seven wickets
Monday fixtures
Maldives v Qatar
Saudi Arabia v Kuwait
Bahrain v UAE
* The top three teams progress to the Asia Qualifier
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
THE SPECS
Engine: 4.4-litre V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 523hp
Torque: 750Nm
Price: Dh469,000
ENGLAND TEAM
Alastair Cook, Mark Stoneman, James Vince, Joe Root (captain), Dawid Malan, Jonny Bairstow, Moeen Ali, Chris Woakes, Craig Overton, Stuart Broad, James Anderson
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Company profile
Company name: Dharma
Date started: 2018
Founders: Charaf El Mansouri, Nisma Benani, Leah Howe
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: TravelTech
Funding stage: Pre-series A
Investors: Convivialite Ventures, BY Partners, Shorooq Partners, L& Ventures, Flat6Labs
UAE squad v Australia
Rohan Mustafa (C), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Fahad Nawaz, Amjed Gul, Shaiman Anwar, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Muhammad Naveed, Amir Hayat, Ghulam Shabir (WK), Qadeer Ahmed, Tahir Latif, Zahoor Khan
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
Expo details
Expo 2020 Dubai will be the first World Expo to be held in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia
The world fair will run for six months from October 20, 2020 to April 10, 2021.
It is expected to attract 25 million visits
Some 70 per cent visitors are projected to come from outside the UAE, the largest proportion of international visitors in the 167-year history of World Expos.
More than 30,000 volunteers are required for Expo 2020
The site covers a total of 4.38 sqkm, including a 2 sqkm gated area
It is located adjacent to Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai South
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
MATCH INFO
What: Brazil v South Korea
When: Tonight, 5.30pm
Where: Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae
Company profile
Date started: Founded in May 2017 and operational since April 2018
Founders: co-founder and chief executive, Doaa Aref; Dr Rasha Rady, co-founder and chief operating officer.
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: Health-tech
Size: 22 employees
Funding: Seed funding
Investors: Flat6labs, 500 Falcons, three angel investors
SCHEDULE
Saturday, April 20: 11am to 7pm - Abu Dhabi World Jiu-Jitsu Festival and Para jiu-jitsu.
Sunday, April 21: 11am to 6pm - Abu Dhabi World Youth (female) Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Monday, April 22: 11am to 6pm - Abu Dhabi World Youth (male) Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Tuesday, April 23: 11am-6pm Abu Dhabi World Masters Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Wednesday, April 24: 11am-6pm Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Thursday, April 25: 11am-5pm Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Friday, April 26: 3pm to 6pm Finals of the Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Saturday, April 27: 4pm and 8pm awards ceremony.
MATCH INFO
Wales 1 (Bale 45 3')
Croatia 1 (Vlasic 09')
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Second Test
In Dubai
Pakistan 418-5 (declared)
New Zealand 90 and 131-2 (follow on)
Day 3: New Zealand trail by 197 runs with 8 wickets remaining
MORE ON CORONAVIRUS & THE ECONOMY
Race card for Super Saturday
4pm: Al Bastakiya Listed US$250,000 (Dh918,125) (Dirt) 1,900m.
4.35pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,200m.
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Conditions $200,000 (Turf) 1,200m.
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,600m.
6.20pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 $300,000 (T) 1,800m.
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 Group 1 $400,000 (D) 2,000m.
7.30pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 $250,000 (T) 2,410m.
Profile of RentSher
Started: October 2015 in India, November 2016 in UAE
Founders: Harsh Dhand; Vaibhav and Purvashi Doshi
Based: Bangalore, India and Dubai, UAE
Sector: Online rental marketplace
Size: 40 employees
Investment: $2 million
Fixtures
Tuesday - 5.15pm: Team Lebanon v Alger Corsaires; 8.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Pharaohs
Wednesday - 5.15pm: Pharaohs v Carthage Eagles; 8.30pm: Alger Corsaires v Abu Dhabi Storms
Thursday - 4.30pm: Team Lebanon v Pharaohs; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Carthage Eagles
Friday - 4.30pm: Pharaohs v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Team Lebanon
Saturday - 4.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Team Lebanon
Scoreline
Ireland 16 (Tries: Stockdale Cons: Sexton Pens: Sexton 3)
New Zealand 9 (Pens: Barrett 2 Drop Goal: Barrett)
BACK%20TO%20ALEXANDRIA
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETamer%20Ruggli%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadine%20Labaki%2C%20Fanny%20Ardant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
Wenger's Arsenal reign in numbers
1,228 - games at the helm, ahead of Sunday's Premier League fixture against West Ham United.
704 - wins to date as Arsenal manager.
3 - Premier League title wins, the last during an unbeaten Invincibles campaign of 2003/04.
1,549 - goals scored in Premier League matches by Wenger's teams.
10 - major trophies won.
473 - Premier League victories.
7 - FA Cup triumphs, with three of those having come the last four seasons.
151 - Premier League losses.
21 - full seasons in charge.
49 - games unbeaten in the Premier League from May 2003 to October 2004.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Day 1 results:
Open Men (bonus points in brackets)
New Zealand 125 (1) beat UAE 111 (3)
India 111 (4) beat Singapore 75 (0)
South Africa 66 (2) beat Sri Lanka 57 (2)
Australia 126 (4) beat Malaysia -16 (0)
Open Women
New Zealand 64 (2) beat South Africa 57 (2)
England 69 (3) beat UAE 63 (1)
Australia 124 (4) beat UAE 23 (0)
New Zealand 74 (2) beat England 55 (2)
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Apple product price list
iPad Pro
11" - $799 (64GB)
12.9" - $999 (64GB)
MacBook Air
$1,199
Mac Mini
$799
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma
When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
MATCH INFO
Bangla Tigers 108-5 (10 ovs)
Ingram 37, Rossouw 26, Pretorius 2-10
Deccan Gladiators 109-4 (9.5 ovs)
Watson 41, Devcich 27, Wiese 2-15
Gladiators win by six wickets
Euro 2020
Group A: Italy, Switzerland, Wales, Turkey
Group B: Belgium, Russia, Denmark, Finland
Group C: Netherlands, Ukraine, Austria,
Georgia/Kosovo/Belarus/North Macedonia
Group D: England, Croatia, Czech Republic,
Scotland/Israel/Norway/Serbia
Group E: Spain, Poland, Sweden,
N.Ireland/Bosnia/Slovakia/Ireland
Group F: Germany, France, Portugal,
Iceland/Romania/Bulgaria/Hungary
Abu Dhabi racecard
5pm: Maiden (Purebred Arabians); Dh80,000; 1,400m.
5.30pm: Maiden (PA); Dh80,00; 1,400m.
6pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (PA); Group 3; Dh500,000; 1,600m.
6.30pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (Thoroughbred); Listed; Dh380,000; 1,600m
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup for Private Owners Handicap (PA); Dh70,000; 1,400m.
7.30pm: Handicap (PA); Dh80,000; 1,600m
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
MATCH DETAILS
Liverpool 2
Wijnaldum (14), Oxlade-Chamberlain (52)
Genk 1
Samatta (40)
RACE CARD
6.30pm: Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm: Meydan Sprint – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (Turf) 1,000m
7.40pm: Curlin Stakes – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (D) 2,200m
8.15pm: UAE Oaks – Group 3 (TB) $125,000 (D) 1,900m
8.50pm: Zabeel Mile – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,600m
9.25pm: Balanchine – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,800m
10pm: Al Shindagha Sprint – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (D) 1,200m
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,200m
Winner: Ferdous, Szczepan Mazur (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer)
5.30pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-3 Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 2,400m
Winner: Basmah, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6pm: UAE Arabian Derby Prestige (PA) Dh150,000 2,200m
Winner: Ihtesham, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6.30pm: Emirates Championship Group 1 (PA) Dh1,000,000 2,200m
Winner: Somoud, Patrick Cosgrave, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
7pm: Abu Dhabi Championship Group 3 (TB) Dh380,000 2,200m
Winner: GM Hopkins, Patrick Cosgrave, Jaber Ramadhan
7.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Conditions (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: AF Al Bairaq, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
