Things change - and things stay very much the same. That just about sums up the current constitutional building process in Egypt. And things that do not change are often rather bad.
Egypt is no exception and the price that Egyptians will pay due to this constitutional process will go on for years. One would have thought that the Muslim Brotherhood's botched attempt last year might have instilled more lessons in this regard. One would have thought that the lessons of those days, where many were killed and tortured in front of the presidential palace would have been learnt. One would have thought that after the abysmally low turn out last time owing to that flawed, abysmal, revisionist and bloody constitutional work, the Egyptian authorities would have thought many times over before initiating a constitutional process. Instead, it seems that the cycle of polarisation continues and deepens.
This is the third constitutional assembly in two years to attempt to draw up a post-Mubarak constitution - and all of them have suffered from the inability to be representative of a national consensus. The first one was dismissed in April 2012, after the supreme administrative court pointed out that members of parliament could not elect themselves onto the assembly and that the assembly involved too few women, young people and representatives of minority groups. The second assembly was more representative but was overwhelmingly Islamist and still included members of parliament. Later on, it became even more Islamist as non-Islamist members resigned in protest against the way in which the assembly was ignoring any consensus-building measures.
Egypt's authorities had the chance to do what many had hoped the former president, Mohammed Morsi, would do: establish a new assembly that would be based on representing the overwhelming majority of Egypt's different political and social trends and those who represented the January 25 revolution above and beyond any political party. Mr Morsi, of course, rejected that measure - such was the style of majoritarianism that he and the Muslim Brotherhood preferred.
Yet the interim Egyptian authorities could have avoided the same mistakes. There should have been room for civil rights figures who have been deeply critical of human rights abuses under all regimes of the last three years, such as Heba Morayef or Hossam Bahgat, two famous civil rights defenders in Egypt who seem to receive more praise for their work outside Egypt than inside. Egypt boasts some of the most accomplished women in the Arab world, yet their numbers on this committee are woefully disproportionate.
The Muslim Brotherhood boycotted any engagement with this process as that would legitimise the military takeover, in their view. That is why there are so few Islamists on the committee.
The non-Brotherhood, post-Islamist "Strong Egypt" party was also unwilling to be part of the process, due to its assessment that it is not the time to engage in building a constitution when the country is so polarised.
Before a final draft has been finalised, questions must be raised about the process. The constitutional draft must be completed in the next 60 days - 60 days to write a constitution that will then become the bedrock of Egyptian political life.
In the midst of the incredibly polarised political environment, would it not make more sense to take a deep breath and wait? Could there not be an interim basic principles document, with a constitution to come later? Has Egypt not learnt that a bad constitutional process, let alone a bad constitution, has serious ramifications and deep consequences?
The previous constitution was not particularly horrendous. This one is not likely to be either. But the people of Egypt did not engage in a popular revolution during the 18 days of the January 25 uprising for a constitution that is just not that bad. That revolution may not even be mentioned in the document. The June 30 uprising is all that matters, though none of what happened in the past three years could have been possible without those 18 days in Tahrir Square.
Just like last year, the referendum on this constitution will not be on its articles or be treated as such in the aftermath; it will be on the road map established by the interim government. If it passes, it will be described as a reconfirmation and complete validation of the road map. If it does not - which is highly unlikely - the pro-Morsi camp will insist it is a clear rejection of the military takeover of July 3. None of this is what Egyptians should be focusing on in building a constitution for all Egyptians.
Just like last year, one ponders on the need for Egyptians to design a constitution worthy of themselves, their country, and the revolution that opened up the space to have these discussions. Just like last year, one ponders on the need for them to develop and follow a consensus-based process that will be to not only their benefit but to the benefit of their children and grandchildren. One hopes that the committee realises the weight of the duty on their shoulders and is careful to draw up a document that will bring Egyptians together, instead of driving them further apart.
In December 2012, I wrote: "Egypt can avoid having a constitution that plunges Egypt exponentially deeper into rifts and polarisation, causing Egyptians to retreat into their respective silos. But for that to happen, this constitutional process has to stop. Now." If things get much worse, those words may be appropriate to write again in 60 days time.
Dr H.A. Hellyer is associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, and the Brookings Institution in Washington DC
On Twitter: @hahellyer
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Have you been targeted?
Tuan Phan of SimplyFI.org lists five signs you have been mis-sold to:
1. Your pension fund has been placed inside an offshore insurance wrapper with a hefty upfront commission.
2. The money has been transferred into a structured note. These products have high upfront, recurring commission and should never be in a pension account.
3. You have also been sold investment funds with an upfront initial charge of around 5 per cent. ETFs, for example, have no upfront charges.
4. The adviser charges a 1 per cent charge for managing your assets. They are being paid for doing nothing. They have already claimed massive amounts in hidden upfront commission.
5. Total annual management cost for your pension account is 2 per cent or more, including platform, underlying fund and advice charges.
Types of bank fraud
1) Phishing
Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
2) Smishing
The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
3) Vishing
The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
4) SIM swap
Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
5) Identity theft
Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
6) Prize scams
Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Usain Bolt's time for the 100m at major championships
2008 Beijing Olympics 9.69 seconds
2009 Berlin World Championships 9.58
2011 Daegu World Championships Disqualified
2012 London Olympics 9.63
2013 Moscow World Championships 9.77
2015 Beijing World Championships 9.79
2016 Rio Olympics 9.81
2017 London World Championships 9.95
Results
Ashraf Ghani 50.64 per cent
Abdullah Abdullah 39.52 per cent
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar 3.85 per cent
Rahmatullah Nabil 1.8 per cent
Lexus LX700h specs
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