The Middle East has been a region in search of a map from the beginning of time. With vast swaths of the landscape divided along tribal lines or those of principalities for much of history and other divisions ebbing and flowing with the ambitions or whims of empires, the only thing that has been certain about Middle Eastern borders is that they would drift like sand dunes.
What seemed stable amid the shifts were the importance of the three enduring civilisations that have withstood the twists offered up the centuries: those represented today by Egypt, Turkey and Iran. Over time, whether they were rising or falling, they were constants and in their way, stabilising or at least factors that could be counted on.
But today’s Middle East has a new look about it. And it is not a comforting one.
During the past century, the map has been effectively redrawn by the “spheres of influence” of Sykes-Picot, two wars, the fall of colonialism, the realities of the Cold War and a steady stream of local conflicts. But throughout, despite all the upheavals, there were also substantial stabilising factors. For example, during the Cold War, conflicts involving Israel and the Arab world were constrained by the threat of escalation that would draw in the Cold War powers more directly. At other times, regional balance, such as that between Iraq and Iran, was used to contain the ambitions of each.
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But we are in very different circumstances today. As far as the great regional civilisations go, Egypt has become, by necessity, inward-looking. Turkey has profoundly alienated its Nato allies and is riven by internal political tensions. Only Iran, among these is strengthening.
Iraq, the one-time counterbalance to Iran, has been shattered and today, Baghdad is closer to Tehran than at any time in recent memory. Indeed, the reality is that thanks to America’s ill-considered war in Iraq and the subsequent rise of ISIL as well as the war in Syria, Iran is now in a highly influential position across the entire northern tier of the Middle East. From Lebanon to western Afghanistan, Iran has grown to be the dominant regional force.
They have done so with the assistance of Russia, a state committed to active involvement in Syria for a long time to come and one supplying Iran with vital arms. And who is there to counterbalance them?
With Egypt sidelined, a new coalition led by Saudi Arabia must play that role. But the kingdom is both going through a leadership transition and is unaccustomed to playing such a leading role. The coalition behind it consists of some rich states but also states that are small. While it is possible that these states may form the moderate Arab coalition the region has long needed to counterbalance Iran and keep the peace from within, today that coalition is nascent and all the actors are learning their parts.
What is more, the greatest supporter of that coalition, the United States has through two presidents now reduced its role and signalled a lesser commitment to be involved. Further, a key element of the Saudi ability to counteract Iran is an unspoken partnership with Israel - a fragile proposition at best given history and politics in both countries.
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In essence, the region has become bipolar, orbiting primarily around Saudi Arabia and Iran, two countries divided by 1,000 years of history. Both sides have shown they are in a combative mood, willing to engage each other in proxy contests and to talk more openly of something larger and more devastating. The outside actors are involved enough to stoke the confidence of the two sides but not engaged enough diplomatically to be effective stabilisers.
In other words, at a time of high tensions, there is a new geopolitical calculus in the region, some of the key leaders are either inexperienced or leading countries inexperienced in active regional foreign policy, potentially stabilising forces outside the region are not playing a constructive role, and the open wounds of recent conflicts are certain to fester because none will step up with political, humanitarian and economic initiatives required to bring about healing and stabilisation.
Compound all this with the fact that some leaders, like Donald Trump in the US, might soon actually feel that they would benefit from the distractions further regional conflict might bring and it is hard not to draw ominous conclusions. At least it is, if the moderate Arab coalition does not soon come to recognise that beyond demonstrating their toughness and their strength they also being to show that they can be peacemakers, stabilisers, healers and regimes inexperienced in such high stakes security issues quickly master their briefs.
That is not impossible. However, finding a winner will be, if this new bipolar reality produces the kind of region-wide conflict that is all too imaginable. In other words, it will take the triumph of considerable wisdom over experience to ensure that the next map of the Middle East is not written in blood. And for the first time in memory, the responsibility for ensuring such an outcome lies largely with the Sunni Arabs of the Gulf.
David Rothkopf is CEO of The Rothkopf Group, senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and most recently author of The Great Questions of Tomorrow
Sheer grandeur
The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.
A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
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PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
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House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
What is blockchain?
Blockchain is a form of distributed ledger technology, a digital system in which data is recorded across multiple places at the same time. Unlike traditional databases, DLTs have no central administrator or centralised data storage. They are transparent because the data is visible and, because they are automatically replicated and impossible to be tampered with, they are secure.
The main difference between blockchain and other forms of DLT is the way data is stored as ‘blocks’ – new transactions are added to the existing ‘chain’ of past transactions, hence the name ‘blockchain’. It is impossible to delete or modify information on the chain due to the replication of blocks across various locations.
Blockchain is mostly associated with cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Due to the inability to tamper with transactions, advocates say this makes the currency more secure and safer than traditional systems. It is maintained by a network of people referred to as ‘miners’, who receive rewards for solving complex mathematical equations that enable transactions to go through.
However, one of the major problems that has come to light has been the presence of illicit material buried in the Bitcoin blockchain, linking it to the dark web.
Other blockchain platforms can offer things like smart contracts, which are automatically implemented when specific conditions from all interested parties are reached, cutting the time involved and the risk of mistakes. Another use could be storing medical records, as patients can be confident their information cannot be changed. The technology can also be used in supply chains, voting and has the potential to used for storing property records.
England squad
Moeen Ali, James Anderson, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Dominic Bess, James Bracey, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Zak Crawley, Sam Curran, Joe Denly, Ben Foakes, Lewis Gregory, Keaton Jennings, Dan Lawrence, Jack Leach, Saqib Mahmood, Craig Overton, Jamie Overton, Matthew Parkinson, Ollie Pope, Ollie Robinson, Joe Root, Dom Sibley, Ben Stokes, Olly Stone, Amar Virdi, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
MATCH INFO
Europa League final
Who: Marseille v Atletico Madrid
Where: Parc OL, Lyon, France
When: Wednesday, 10.45pm kick off (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
MATCH INFO
Arsenal 1 (Aubameyang 12’) Liverpool 1 (Minamino 73’)
Arsenal win 5-4 on penalties
Man of the Match: Ainsley Maitland-Niles (Arsenal)
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Ajax v Juventus, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match on BeIN Sports
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 4 (Gundogan 8' (P), Bernardo Silva 19', Jesus 72', 75')
Fulham 0
Red cards: Tim Ream (Fulham)
Man of the Match: Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)
The five pillars of Islam
RESULTS
6.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (Dirt) 1.600m
Winner: Miller’s House, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Kanood, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
7.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Gervais, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: The Garhoud Sprint Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Important Mission, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.50pm: The Entisar Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Firnas, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
9.25pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 120,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Zhou Storm, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
The specs: McLaren 600LT
Price, base: Dh914,000
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 600hp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 620Nm @ 5,500rpm
Fuel economy 12.2.L / 100km
The permutations for UAE going to the 2018 World Cup finals
To qualify automatically
UAE must beat Iraq.
Australia must lose in Japan and at home to Thailand, with their losing margins and the UAE's winning margin over Iraq being enough to overturn a goal difference gap of eight.
Saudi Arabia must lose to Japan, with their losing margin and the UAE's winning margin over Iraq being enough to overturn a goal difference gap of eight.
To finish third and go into a play-off with the other third-placed AFC side for a chance to reach the inter-confederation play-off match
UAE must beat Iraq.
Saudi Arabia must lose to Japan, with their losing margin and the UAE's winning margin over Iraq being enough to overturn a goal difference gap of eight.
AndhaDhun
Director: Sriram Raghavan
Producer: Matchbox Pictures, Viacom18
Cast: Ayushmann Khurrana, Tabu, Radhika Apte, Anil Dhawan
Rating: 3.5/5
Qosty Byogaani
Starring: Hani Razmzi, Maya Nasir and Hassan Hosny
Four stars
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
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PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Saturday
West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur (3.30pm)
Burnley v Huddersfield Town (7pm)
Everton v Bournemouth (7pm)
Manchester City v Crystal Palace (7pm)
Southampton v Manchester United (7pm)
Stoke City v Chelsea (7pm)
Swansea City v Watford (7pm)
Leicester City v Liverpool (8.30pm)
Sunday
Brighton and Hove Albion v Newcastle United (7pm)
Monday
Arsenal v West Bromwich Albion (11pm)
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
