President Recep Tayyip Erdogan subtly acknowledged the depth of Turkey’s financial woes in a speech to the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) annual congress last week in the Turkish capital Ankara.
“Now it is time to work harder, produce more, speed up,” he told AKP delegates. “I want my citizens to invest foreign currency and gold kept at home, which is our national wealth, in various financial instruments to benefit our economy.”
This was no idle request. A few days prior, Mr Erdogan had for the third time in 20 months fired his central bank chief. The dismissal of Naci Agbal, who had raised interest rates two days earlier, in an effort to curb persistently high inflation, shocked analysts and investors who had seen his four-month tenure as restoring credibility.
He was replaced by Sahap Kavcioglu, a pro-government columnist and former banker and AKP parliamentarian, who is said to share Mr Erdogan's unorthodox view on inflation and interest rates. When markets opened Monday the Turkish lira quickly lost 15 per cent of its value, falling near record lows against the US dollar before regaining some ground.
Turkey's main stock market erased its gains for the year and recorded its worst two-day stretch since the 2008 financial crisis. The Economist called Mr Agbal's firing a "debacle", while prominent Turkish economist Mustafa Sonmez wondered if Mr Erdogan had committed economic suicide.
Since a mid-2018 currency crisis, the lira has lost nearly half its value against the dollar and Turks have become increasingly reluctant to watch their savings evaporate. The President urged his worried countrymen to invest in Turkish instruments, highlighting the benefits of Islamic ones in particular, but many have other ideas.
Turks' total investment in gold is equal to about 40 per cent of gross domestic product, according to Bloomberg, while dollar- and euro-denominated savings are also sizeable. Recently a fourth alternative has emerged. The cryptocurrency market remains unregulated in Turkey, with no tax laws or licensing requirements for traders.
The suicide of a young Istanbul couple, who left their baby with a neighbour, shows the extent of hardships
This, plus the falling lira and bitcoin’s five-fold leap in value in recent months, has driven sharp Turkish interest. As of early 2021, Turkey’s two main crypto exchanges, Paribu and BtcTurk, averaged more than $1 billion in daily trading.
A February survey by the German consumer research firm Statista ranked Turkey fourth globally in terms of crypto ownership, at 16 per cent of the population. A 30-year-old Turkish crypto investor says the digital currency has come to mean two things to Turkish youth: “future and freedom”.
Mr Agbal’s dismissal sped up this trend. The next day internet searches for “Bitcoin” quadrupled in Turkey, hitting Google’s highest search value. Turkey’s crypto exchanges saw a record $6 billion in trades over a 24-hour period and registrations of Turkish users on British crypto exchange CEX.IO leapt nearly 800 per cent.
Turkey’s central bank is unlikely to start regulating the crypto space anytime soon, as its plate is full trying to calm market jitters. It is too soon to predict the extent to which Turkish interest in crypto currencies might shape markets, but it could be an increasingly appealing alternative if the lira remains weak and economic despair deepens.
Last month, the joint suicide of a young Istanbul couple, who left their one-year-old child with a neighbour, highlighted how more and more Turks facing financial hardship are taking the most drastic steps. Just last week, the Turkish Musicians and Performers Union (Muzik-Sen), announced that more than 100 musicians have committed suicide since the start of the pandemic, most after losing their jobs and receiving inadequate state aid.
Turkey was one of the few countries to avoid economic contraction in 2020, and it is still some way from the desperation of Lebanon, where the economy faces total collapse, as people in Beirut wrestle over basics in grocery stores. But such scenes may be in Turkey's future.
With Covid-19 lockdowns driving more than 1.5 million Turks into poverty, about 20 per cent of the country now lives below the poverty line. Around seven in 10 have significant debt, one in three have difficulty buying food or heating their home, and 40 per cent of people under 30 are unemployed.
Meanwhile, the pandemic's third wave is cresting as new daily cases top 30,000, equalling Turkey's December peak. This is likely to mean more lockdowns, and more income-free weeks for countless people as inflation and lira depreciation bite. Many observers criticised the AKP for inviting hundreds of party members from around the country to gather for days in proximity indoors, with many attendees not wearing masks at last week's congress.
Losing popularity, the AKP has sought to rally its base by highlighting its conservatism and Islamic bona fides. For many, this explains Mr Erdogan's recent decision to pull Turkey out of the world's leading compact for preventing violence against women, the Istanbul Convention, which Islamists saw as challenging their views of the traditional family.
Another way the government has pushed Islam is by employing the significantly expanded Diyanet, or Directorate of Religious Affairs, to promote deprivation and resignation. The Diyanet writes the Friday sermons for Turkey’s 82,000 mosques, and in recent weeks the speeches have repeatedly praised poverty and obedience to authority.
The Diyanet has issued fatwas advising people to cut down on unnecessary purchases and go to farmers' markets in the late afternoon to save money. Another sermon reminded Turks that "poor people are closest to God". Last week, as markets shuddered, the chief imam of Istanbul's iconic Hagia Sophia mosque tweeted: "God will test believers with fear and hunger, with a decline in their lives and belongings, but God will award the patient ones at the end."
But the president is singing a different tune, arguing in his speech that the latest fluctuations do not reflect the economy’s fundamentals, and pointing to the thousands of new businesses and robust infrastructure as reasons the Turkish economy is headed for a new peak.
Towards the end of his speech Mr Erdogan unintentionally underscored his government’s failings: “The pandemic has revealed very clearly that the powerful states are not the ones that have a lot of money,” he said, “but the ones that offer the best service to their citizens in times of need.”
In a time of grave need, Mr Erdogan’s government is removing safeguards – a steady hand at the central bank, Covid-19 restrictions, the Istanbul Convention – while telling its increasingly desperate citizenry to have faith and obediently accept their fate. Apparently Turkey is not yet as powerful as its leader seems to think.
David Lepeska is a Turkish and Eastern Mediterranean affairs columnist for The National
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Opening weekend Premier League fixtures
Weekend of August 10-13
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Bournemouth v Cardiff City
Fulham v Crystal Palace
Huddersfield Town v Chelsea
Liverpool v West Ham United
Manchester United v Leicester City
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Our legal columnist
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Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
RESULTS
West Asia Premiership
Thursday
Jebel Ali Dragons 13-34 Dubai Exiles
Friday
Dubai Knights Eagles 16-27 Dubai Tigers
The specs
Engine: 8.0-litre, quad-turbo 16-cylinder
Transmission: 7-speed auto
0-100kmh 2.3 seconds
0-200kmh 5.5 seconds
0-300kmh 11.6 seconds
Power: 1500hp
Torque: 1600Nm
Price: Dh13,400,000
On sale: now
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHakbah%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENaif%20AbuSaida%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESaudi%20Arabia%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E22%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24200%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Epre-Series%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGlobal%20Ventures%20and%20Aditum%20Investment%20Management%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Squad for first two ODIs
Kohli (c), Rohit, Dhawan, Rayudu, Pandey, Dhoni (wk), Pant, Jadeja, Chahal, Kuldeep, Khaleel, Shami, Thakur, Rahul.
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
MEYDAN CARD
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group One (PA) US$65,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,200m
7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) $100,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm Singspiel Stakes Group Two (TB) $250,000 (T) 1,800m
8.50pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
9.25pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group Two (TB) $350,000 (D) 1,600m
10pm Dubai Trophy Conditions (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,200m
10.35pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
The National selections:
6.30pm AF Alwajel
7.05pm Ekhtiyaar
7.40pm First View
8.15pm Benbatl
8.50pm Zakouski
9.25pm: Kimbear
10pm: Chasing Dreams
10.35pm: Good Fortune
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Blah
Started: 2018
Founder: Aliyah Al Abbar and Hend Al Marri
Based: Dubai
Industry: Technology and talent management
Initial investment: Dh20,000
Investors: Self-funded
Total customers: 40
The past winners
2009 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2010 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2011 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
2012 - Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)
2013 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2014 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2015 - Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
2016 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2017 - Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
UAE SQUAD
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 0
Liverpool 2 (Mane 50', 54')
Red card: Andreas Christensen (Chelsea)
Man of the match: Sadio Mane (Liverpool)
The%20specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%204cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E261hp%20at%205%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E400Nm%20at%201%2C750-4%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10.5L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C999%20(VX%20Luxury)%3B%20from%20Dh149%2C999%20(VX%20Black%20Gold)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Result
Arsenal 4
Monreal (51'), Ramsey (82'), Lacazette 85', 89')
West Ham United 1
Arnautovic (64')
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20flat%206-cylinder%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20PDK%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E500hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E450Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDh530%2C300%20as%20tested%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
In%20the%20Land%20of%20Saints%20and%20Sinners
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERobert%20Lorenz%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Liam%20Neeson%2C%20Kerry%20Condon%2C%20Jack%20Gleeson%2C%20Ciaran%20Hinds%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Company%20profile%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYodawy%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Egypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKarim%20Khashaba%2C%20Sherief%20El-Feky%20and%20Yasser%20AbdelGawad%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHealthTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2424.5%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlgebra%20Ventures%2C%20Global%20Ventures%2C%20MEVP%20and%20Delivery%20Hero%20Ventures%2C%20among%20others%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20500%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Small%20Things%20Like%20These
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The biog
Age: 46
Number of Children: Four
Hobby: Reading history books
Loves: Sports
Gully Boy
Director: Zoya Akhtar
Producer: Excel Entertainment & Tiger Baby
Cast: Ranveer Singh, Alia Bhatt, Kalki Koechlin, Siddhant Chaturvedi
Rating: 4/5 stars
BLACK%20ADAM
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jaume%20Collet-Serra%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dwayne%20Johnson%2C%20Sarah%20Shahi%2C%20Viola%20Davis%2C%20Pierce%20Brosnan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Directed by: Shaka King
Starring: Daniel Kaluuya, Lakeith Stanfield, Jesse Plemons
Four stars
World Cup final
Who: France v Croatia
When: Sunday, July 15, 7pm (UAE)
TV: Game will be shown live on BeIN Sports for viewers in the Mena region
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
The 12 breakaway clubs
England
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur
Italy
AC Milan, Inter Milan, Juventus
Spain
Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20ASI%20(formerly%20DigestAI)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Quddus%20Pativada%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Artificial%20intelligence%2C%20education%20technology%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%243%20million-plus%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GSV%20Ventures%2C%20Character%2C%20Mark%20Cuban%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
Brief scores:
Huesca 0
Real Madrid 1
Bale 8'
If you go...
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
THE%20FLASH
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RACE CARD
6.30pm: Handicap (Turf) US$175,000 1,000m
7.05pm: Al Bastakiya Trial Conditions (Dirt) $100,000 1,900m
7.40pm: Al Rashidiya Group 2 (T) $250,000 1,800m
8.15pm: Handicap (D) $135,000 2,000m
8.50pm: Al Fahidi Fort Group 2 (T) $250,000 1,400m
9.25pm: Handicap (T) $135,000 2,410m.
