Supporters of Brazilian former President Jair Bolsonaro invade the presidential palace while clashing with security forces in Brasilia on January 8, 2023. AFP
Supporters of Brazilian former President Jair Bolsonaro invade the presidential palace while clashing with security forces in Brasilia on January 8, 2023. AFP
Supporters of Brazilian former President Jair Bolsonaro invade the presidential palace while clashing with security forces in Brasilia on January 8, 2023. AFP
Insight and opinion from The National’s editorial leadership
January 10, 2023
Two years ago, as thousands of rioters staged a violent takeover of the US Capitol in a bid to overturn Donald Trump’s presidential election defeat, Hope Hicks, a White House aide, pleaded with the outgoing president to condemn their actions. His unwillingness to do so was “damaging his legacy”, she suggested.
“Nobody will care about my legacy if I lose…the only thing that matters is winning,” he allegedly responded. Paradoxically, Mr Trump’s determination to be guided by the oft-repeated cliche that “history is written by the winners” seems to have confirmed the very opposite. January 6, 2021 is sure to earn a place in American history books – its consequences, which continue to help paralyse American politics today, shaped almost entirely by Mr Trump’s behaviour as after losing the election.
This week, another capital in the Americas saw its own history re-written by apoplectic losers, in near-identical fashion. On Sunday, thousands of supporters of Jair Bolsonaro, who recently lost the Brazilian presidency to Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva, stormed official buildings in the capital, Brasilia, overwhelming police. Much like the US insurrectionists in 2021, the rioters forced their way into the country’s legislative building, smashing windows and taking selfies as they scampered contemptuously through the corridors of power. Mr Bolsonaro, who is believed to be in the US state of Florida, waited several hours before issuing a half-hearted condemnation via Twitter.
Another capital in the Americas saw its own history re-written by apoplectic losers
Many critics of both Mr Trump and Mr Bolsonaro attribute their respective refusals to cede victory to their own political aspirations. But the motivation driving their supporters is more abstract. The common factor, it seems, is a deep-rooted and ever-growing distrust in their countries’ governing institutions. American insurrectionists were not simply angry to see Mr Trump go; for weeks in the run-up to the election, a great number of them were convinced there was a concerted effort by shadowy powers-that-be to rig the vote against him. In Brasilia this week, many “Bolsonaristas” were less concerned with seeing the former president remain in office than they were with preventing Mr da Silva, who was previously imprisoned on corruption charges, from taking power. Graffiti left behind by some of the rioters in Brasilia calls for a military coup, supposedly in order to stop the new left-wing president from bringing about communism.
A deep and often-conspiratorial distrust of institutions is not a phenomenon isolated to the Americas. In countries where corrupt institutions have often earned such contempt, it has come to define politics. The Middle East has a number of such examples.And the results – the emergence of a culture that promotes partisan violence over good-faith institution-building – provide a cautionary tale for not only would-be rioters elsewhere, but also the governments they so despise. This summer, Iraqi protesters supporting the Shiite cleric Muqtada Al Sadr, who was cut out of a power-sharing deal by a real-life conspiracy, twice stormed the parliament in Baghdad. The protests and counter-protests brought Iraq to the brink of civil unrest – an outcome averted by Mr Al Sadr bowing out of politics.
In countries that hold elections, the peaceful transfer of power is a vital pillar.It is not easy to earn the trust of millions of people. Governing institutions as old as those of Washington and Brasilia have managed to do so over centuries of constant – albeit imperfect – service to the public. In most cases, and certainly in countries as successful as the US and Brazil, seeking to destroy them is rarely the cure to their ills. Improving them, peacefully and over time, usually is. Those who win control of these institutions have a great deal of responsibility to ensure that this can be done. But an even greater onus lies with the losers.
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Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now
There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:
1. Rising US interest rates
The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.
Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”
At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.
2. Stronger dollar
High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.”
3. Global trade war
Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”
4. Eurozone uncertainty
Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”
The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
