Insight and opinion from The National’s editorial leadership
May 06, 2024
At a particularly heated session of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee on December 11, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lectured his fellow MPs: “Some of you don’t understand what it is to win a war. A war is won with arms and international credit.”
In the same meeting, he spoke of his plan to use the war to gain Israeli control over the so-called “Philadelphi Corridor”, the 14km strip of land in the Gazan city of Rafah that constitutes Palestine’s international border with Egypt. Naturally, such a plan would be unachievable without an invasion of Rafah, which has in recent months become the main sanctuary – if a city on the brink of famine could be called that – for more than a million displaced Palestinians.
On Monday morning, Mr Netanyahu’s long-telegraphed battle for Rafah seemed to have begun, with the Israeli military warning 100,000 Palestinians there to leave as it was preparing to act “with extreme force”. They were asked to make their way to Al Mawasi, a makeshift camp that charities have warned is woefully inadequate to accommodate such an influx.
Israel has more than enough arms to make good on its invasion threats, even if its international credit runs dry. The unanimity with which the international community has condemned Mr Netanyahu’s designs on Rafah is remarkable. The US, the UK and the EU have all agreed the devastation would be intolerable, particularly in the absence of a credible humanitarian plan to protect the huge number of civilians trapped there.
In February, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron implored Israel to think carefully about potential violations of international law: “It is impossible to see how you can fight a war among these people [in Rafah]. There’s nowhere for them to go.”
On March 9, US President Joe Biden told the American broadcaster MSNBC in a televised interview that an invasion of Rafah “is a red line”.
And yet, Mr Netanyahu’s constant inching in that direction has been tolerated. Three days after Mr Biden’s comment, the US National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, flatly denied it was ever made.
These mixed messages have let down Gaza’s civilians, undermined both Israeli and Palestinian long-term security and emboldened Mr Netanyahu’s worst impulses.
Those impulses include the pursuit of a “total victory”, in the Prime Minister’s words, in Rafah where there is none. Threatening the city may have made sense in earlier weeks of the conflict, as a negotiating tactic to pressure Hamas into concessions. Thus far, however, none have come – and in any case, Mr Netanyahu said last week his assault on Rafah would take place "with or without a deal".
Mixed messages have let down Gaza’s civilians and emboldened Netanyahu’s worst impulses
Meanwhile, the military aims – destroying Hamas and realising Israeli ambitions for the Philadelphi Corridor – are not compelling. Even if Hamas’s command structure were crippled or destroyed, the scale of inevitable casualties will only strengthen the argument for militancy in the minds of young Palestinians. Hamas, or other groups like it, will resurge – if not now, then later.
And if Mr Netanyahu is made to feel he has unlimited credit in Washington and London, he should be under no such illusion in Cairo. Egyptian officials have already warned the displacement of large numbers of Palestinians into the Sinai and Israeli military occupation of the border could undermine the Egyptian-Israeli peace that has held for nearly half a century. Whatever Israel’s short-term gains in Gaza, the collapse of the Camp David Accords would present a loss that outweighs them all.
In the immediate term, the well-being of Gaza’s civilians must be the highest priority. The US and UK said they expected Israel to present a credible plan for these civilians before any invasion. The fact the invasion appears to have begun should render this demand more – not less – relevant. They should use their permanent seats in the UN Security Council to demand an immediate halt to the invasion at least until such a plan is presented and independently vetted.
The international community must also back calls for Israeli officials to be prosecuted for any war crimes that may arise from proceeding in the absence of such a plan.
Finally, Palestinian civilians must not become a bargaining chip. Ever since the start of the war, Egyptian officials have been rightly vexed by the idea that any displacement of Palestinians into the Sinai could become permanent – adding yet another long-term Palestinian refugee community to the region. The Israeli right wing often speaks as though it would like nothing more. But that idea cannot and should not be even contemplated. Palestinians must remain in their homeland.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
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