“We have reached a dead end.” So said a shell-shocked Saad Hariri, standing in front of a portrait of his late father Rafic, as he announced the resignation of the entire Lebanese government.
As crowds cheered in the street and waved flags, the sombre prime minister admitted: “No one is bigger than this country.”
The announcement follows an extraordinary fortnight in Lebanon. For 13 days, more than one million Lebanese people have taken to the streets, demanding the fall of the government and rising up against sectarian-based politics, widespread corruption, unemployment and poor access to basic services. That they have achieved their aim in such a short time might give them cause for celebration tonight but tomorrow, the sobering thought of what might replace the outgoing government will undoubtedly strike home. It is critical that those elements who already seek to sow divides among the Lebanese, such as Hezbollah, are not able to exploit this power vacuum. This is a precarious moment and it is vital whoever is responsible for taking the country forward seeks to establish stability and security quickly.
In truth, Mr Hariri was stuck between a rock and a hard place. Blamed for many of Lebanon’s failures, the clock was ticking on his time in power - but the fall of the government with him was an unexpected consequence of a great swelling of discontent over years of incompetence and inefficiency. Mr Hariri tried to quell public disquiet by announcing a host of sweeping government reforms eight days ago – but it was too little too late. A proposed cabinet shuffle also failed to stay the tide of resentment. The powerful Hezbollah and its Free Patriotic Movement ally refused to accept a change of leadership that might have de-escalated the situation. As a result, more than a million people took to the streets at the height of the demonstrations. Given these circumstances, Mr Hariri had little choice but to resign.
Now that he has quit, Lebanon is running out of time to find a consensus that will end the current crisis. If parliament cannot agree on a new prime minister, Mr Hariri might need to remain in power as head of a caretaker government. This could be a lengthy process taking years. For instance, before president Michel Aoun took up his role, the country was left without a head of state for two years. But even if parliament agrees on another prime minister, there is no guarantee that protesters will be satisfied with the new nominee.
It is critical that those elements who already seek to sow divides among the Lebanese, such as Hezbollah, are not able to exploit this power vacuum
Nor does the government's resignation resolve the country’s woes. People on the streets are not rising up against one man, they are demanding the fall of an entire system based on corrupt sectarian politics. Mr Hariri was simply the face of this system, and he was not even one of its worst offenders. He is, in fact, one of the rare political leaders in the country without blood on his hands. Many of Lebanon’s top officials today are warlords turned politicians, including Mr Aoun and parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri.
However, Mr Hariri’s rise to power is indicative of many of the flaws of Lebanon’s political system. He was a businessman for most of his life and only became a political figure in 2005 when he took on the leadership of the Future Movement after the assassination of his father, who was prime minister at the time. He has since been Lebanon’s prime minister twice, leading two unity governments. This tradition of political dynasties is one of the causes of opprobrium from protesters but Mr Hariri’s case is in no way unique. Mr Aoun’s son-in-law Gebran Bassil, who is also foreign minister and leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, has been vying for the presidency for years. Meanwhile, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt announced two years ago that his son Taymour will be his political successor.
Lebanese anti-government protesters celebrate the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri in Beirut on October 29, 2019 on the 13th day of anti-government protests. AFP
His son’s legacy will be one of a plethora of political impasses that propelled him into the position of mediator. Lebanon does not have a two-party system. It is instead governed by a number of parties, none of which have a majority in parliament on their own. The country’s political system relies instead on coalitions between these factions and sectarian-based groups to be able to function. Despite these difficulties, Mr Hariri often managed to find compromises to get political leaders to resolve their differences. One of his biggest challenges was Hezbollah’s rising influence in the country, which his party has been unable to counter. Backed into a corner, he has led a unity government since 2016 in which the terrorist group wielded far too much power and left little room for sensible voices to be heard. With him gone, there is a chance that Hezbollah will take advantage and attempt to find a pro-Iranian replacement for Mr Hariri.
This prospect is likely to anger protesters even more but the terror group has not shied away from using violence to intimidate those who oppose it and has already started targeting protesters. A government in which Hezbollah plays an even more powerful role must be avoided at all costs. Mr Hariri’s resignation might be a victory for the protest movement but for now, it is a cosmetic change only. A great mountain of tasks lies ahead of Lebanon’s future leader to put an end to the country’s problems.
Key facilities
Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
Premier League-standard football pitch
400m Olympic running track
NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
600-seat auditorium
Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
Specialist robotics and science laboratories
AR and VR-enabled learning centres
Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
1 The kind of water athletes drink is important. Gwilym Hooson, a 28-year-old British performer who is currently recovering from knee surgery, found that out when the company was still in Studio City, training for 12 hours a day. “The physio team was like: ‘Why is everyone getting cramps?’ And then they realised we had to add salt and sugar to the water,” he says.
2 A little chocolate is a good thing. “It’s emergency energy,” says Craig Paul Smith, La Perle’s head coach and former Cirque du Soleil performer, gesturing to an almost-empty open box of mini chocolate bars on his desk backstage.
3 Take chances, says Young, who has worked all over the world, including most recently at Dragone’s show in China. “Every time we go out of our comfort zone, we learn a lot about ourselves,” she says.
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
The studios taking part (so far)
Punch
Vogue Fitness
Sweat
Bodytree Studio
The Hot House
The Room
Inspire Sports (Ladies Only)
Cryo
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
