There is a sudden air of inevitability about European politics and leadership. Not coincidentally, Angela Merkel, the long-serving German chancellor, is at the fore.
There are seven weeks until Mrs Merkel faces a general election and the rituals of her reign are being meticulously observed. Late last month, dressed in imperious silk-satin, she attended the south-west Bayreuth music festival. It is a homage to the composer Wagner and the summer playground of the centre-right establishment.
Soon after, Mrs Merkel went walking in the Italian Alps where, unkind newspapers noted that she has worn the same red plaid shirt for the last seven years.
What is so remarkable about the unremarkable? It is that Mrs Merkel is set to stroll back into office without breaking her stride. It would take a miracle to unseat the woman who has led Germany since 2005. In fact, if current polls hold true, it is likely she will be able to abandon the grand coalition with the left and govern in a more cohesive liberal-conservative alliance.
The election of Emmanuel Macron as French president undoubtedly helped restore confidence by slaying the spectre of a far-right leader in Paris.
Another boon is the rise from the political deathbed of the liberal Free Democratic Party. It crashed out of the Bundestag at the last election, but is on course to come back as Mrs Merkel’s coalition partner.
Under a new leader, the socially liberal, fiscally hawkish faction has found its voice. In his thirties and a serial entrepreneur, Christian Lindner would be Mrs Merkel’s foreign minister.
A government between the two would mark a return to orthodoxy but with fresh energy. By inclination, Mr Lindner is a risk taker and the likelihood is a fourth Merkel government would be bolder both within Europe and on the global stage.
It is unwise to be too complacent in these troubled times. Since the 2013 election, Germany has absorbed more than 1 million new residents. The door may have shut on the Willkommen policy, but the historic events of 2015, with its influx of Syrians and Iraqis, cannot be a footnote in this election.
The far-right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) soared to 15 per cent in the polls at the apex of the open door policy.
________________________
Read more
How London is deserting the Conservative party
France has seen 271 jihadi militants return, minister says
Britain willing to accept a £36bn Brexit divorce bill
________________________
When the borders were reinforced, it slumped again. Having chosen anti-immigrant fear-mongering as its political platform, it is trapped. It cannot, it seems, go back to its previous agitation against the Euro. As Marine Le Pen found in France, people might not like the common currency, but they fear the harm quitting could inflict.
Provocation from within and outside the migrant population is a danger factor that could yet shoehorn the AfD into the German national parliament. A succession of stabbing incidents in second-tier German cities this summer demonstrates that the kindling is there should an incendiary moment arrive.
Assumptions could also be upended by broader social angst. The British election demonstrated that voter discontent with the structure of Western societies remains potent.
Prosperous and export-driven Germany should, in theory, be immune from the vapours that have convulsed the United States and Britain. After all, German is the home of an extraordinary pact between workers and corporations that has, for decades, caused employee wage restraint to anchor industrial competitiveness.
Yet there is a feeling that there is a canker at the root of the German economy. Most obviously, this is manifest in the car industry. Critics say this massive cartel has the country’s politicians in its pockets and has skewed the economy in its favour to the detriment of the population.
A summit of the car makers and officials in Berlin last week was the focus of a backlash. Diesel, the fuel of choice for German engines, has become the “killer on city streets”.
In this unfolding scandal, there is an opportunity for an alternative alliance to emerge as a genuine challenge to Mrs Merkel.
The junior coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, does not see itself as a supplicant, but as a rival for power. The Greens and the far-left see the car industry as the bulwark of an economic system they wish to overthrow. United by a cause, their supporters could rally behind Martin Schulz, the jackanape resembling the SPD leader.
He only recently returned to German politics after spending most of his career in the European parliament. Mr Schulz hopes to provide an upstart challenge of the type Jeremy Corbyn, the outsider leading Labour in Britain, used to jolt politics away from its predictable track.
After a blip higher in the polls, Mr Schulz has fallen back. But the election contest is not yet out of the starting blocks. The outcome of the clashes on the campaign trail cannot be easily written off in advance.
Mrs Merkel may be about to discover what is well-known to dramatists. The fourth act is often the trickiest to set up.
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%202-litre%20direct%20injection%20turbo%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%207-speed%20automatic%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20261hp%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20400Nm%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20From%20Dh134%2C999%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Formula%204%20Italian%20Championship%202023%20calendar
%3Cp%3EApril%2021-23%3A%20Imola%3Cbr%3EMay%205-7%3A%20Misano%3Cbr%3EMay%2026-28%3A%20SPA-Francorchamps%3Cbr%3EJune%2023-25%3A%20Monza%3Cbr%3EJuly%2021-23%3A%20Paul%20Ricard%3Cbr%3ESept%2029-Oct%201%3A%20Mugello%3Cbr%3EOct%2013-15%3A%20Vallelunga%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre, six-cylinder
Transmission: six-speed manual
Power: 395bhp
Torque: 420Nm
Price: from Dh321,200
On sale: now
What is Genes in Space?
Genes in Space is an annual competition first launched by the UAE Space Agency, The National and Boeing in 2015.
It challenges school pupils to design experiments to be conducted in space and it aims to encourage future talent for the UAE’s fledgling space industry. It is the first of its kind in the UAE and, as well as encouraging talent, it also aims to raise interest and awareness among the general population about space exploration.
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
