For many leading football nations, qualifying for the World Cup finals has become a box-ticking exercise – and even more so as the format has been expanded.
From 1934 to 1978, 16 teams played in the finals, then 24 in 1982 and 32 in 1998. For the finals next year it will increase to 48. The best national teams are qualifying too easily. England have only been world champions once, but their national team have lost only four qualifying games in 30 years.
They’ve won all seven qualifiers so far with their place in North America secured last month with games to spare. Top of the European groups are the Netherlands, France, Spain, England, Belgium, Croatia, Denmark and Switzerland without a single defeat among them.
It’s a procession and Portugal and Austria top their groups having lost only once – in the latest games after they’d all but qualified.
The lack of jeopardy, one of the key drivers of sport and not only football, is staggering and that is reflected in a diminishing interest from broadcasters and fans.
Ten of the teams who foot the 11 Uefa groups have not won a single game. England’s Football Association, having seen lower interest, if not attendances - over 70,000 watch games at Wembley regardless of the opponents - support plans to redevelop the European qualifying process amid fears it has become stale.
One solution could be the Swiss-style system successfully adopted by the Uefa Champions League in recent seasons.
There are still occasional surprises, even in Europe. Norway, who have only qualified for one World Cup finals in their entire history and that was in 1998, have won all their seven group games and on Sunday will qualify, ahead of Italy, if they avoid a nine-goal deficit to them at San Siro.
Stale Solbakken’s team, including Erling Haaland, Alexander Sorloth, Sander Berge, Patrick Berg, Oscar Bobb and Antonio Nusa, have scored 33 and conceded only four. And they’re doing this without injured captain Martin Odegaard, who should be back to play in the finals.
The jeopardy comes lower down and more in the chase for second spot and a place in the play-offs. Had Slovakia not got a 91st minute winner against Northern Ireland, they’d have nine points to Northern Ireland’s seven, with the latter yet to play Luxembourg in the final game. But they did. The Republic of Ireland’s surprise 2-0 win over Portugal on Thursday saw Cristiano Ronaldo sent off and Ireland have the chance to finish second if they beat Hungary on Sunday.
And away from the top-ranked European teams, the 10-team South American group is highly competitive. The second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth-place teams are all on 28 or 29 points after 18 games, though the finalists were decided three games before the end of the groups – from which seven of 10 can qualify for the finals.
More games in the finals means more money and more global interest. It allows for tiny countries like Cape Verde to qualify for the first time, but qualifying is bloated and there are even suggestions that the World Cup finals could be expanded yet again for 2030.
In Africa, five of the nine group leaders didn’t lose a match, while eight of the nine countries who finished bottom of their groups didn’t win any of their eight or 10 games. This isn’t competition, it’s procession.
It was similar in the Asian groups, where seven of the nine group winners didn’t lose a game. Japan, Iraq and Australia won all six games of the initial groups, where Japan scored 24 goals without conceding one.
All had to go through further qualifying rounds, with UAE or Iraq potentially playing more games – an astonishing 22 – than any other country to reach the finals in North America. UAE travel to Basra on Tuesday after Thursday’s 1-1 draw in Abu Dhabi, the winners then going into an Intercontinental Playoff in Mexico. Reaching the finals would be significant for both.
But first tonight’s games, where the biggest achievement should be Norway reaching the finals, which in the absence of tight, drama-led groups, will have to suffice.
