Webber's only hope: the drive of his life

He has prided himself on surprising people this season, but if he is going to be celebrating being world champion tonight at Yas Marina Circuit then Mark Webber is going to have to save his best upset for last.

The Australian, who was considered an outsider for the title at the start of the year, has left himself with the proverbial mountain to climb in today's Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

A disappointing display in yesterday's evening qualifying session left him fifth on the grid, behind his three championship rivals and Jenson Button, the outgoing world champion.

While Sebastian Vettel, his Red Bull-Renault teammate, scorched to a third pole position in the past four races, Webber floundered, finishing half a second adrift off the pace, and could have set-up a possible role reversal of team priorities in today's race.

Webber is second in the title race, needing to make up eight points on Fernando Alonso, the championship leader, to become the first Australian world champion in 30 years.

But he somehow needs to pass the two McLaren-Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button, who sandwich Alonso's Ferrari, as well as the Spaniard, and then hope for help from Vettel if the situation arises were a win for the German not enough for him to take the world title.

The damage yesterday was done in sector two, which is made up of the two long straights, as he gave up half a second to the McLarens and four tenths to Vettel, time he could not make up in the final sector of the lap.

A bullish Webber refused to give up last night, saying: "I'm not rapped to be fifth on the grid, it's disappointing, but there is still a long way to go tomorrow - the fat lady hasn't sung yet.

"I would like to be further up but I couldn't get the pace ... I didn't seem to have the grip the other guys had and I need to have a look at where I am losing time."

The start will be crucial and Webber needs to make up places as quickly as he can, but that would involve a significant change in form from the 34-year-old with his getaways in recent events.

Since overtaking Vettel at the start of the British Grand Prix in July, it would be fair to describe his starts as tardy at best.

He has lost places on the first lap in five of the last eight races, and has not actually gained any positions since successfully getting alongside Vettel at Silverstone.

Hardly the statistics to build confidence for Webber supporters, but he can be consoled that he is at least on the cleaner side of the grid, and that Alonso, who will be starting directly in front of him, has not exactly being flying off the startline of late either.

The other problem for Webber is the best overtaking opportunities, at Turn 8 and Turn 11, are both at the end of long straights, and the Red Bull's Renault engine does not have the horsepower of either McLaren's Mercedes unit or the Ferrari.

So Webber may have to rely on pit strategy and doing something different. Either pitting early, although that risks being stuck in slower traffic, or trying to pit later than everyone else, although the advantage of fresher rubber for the cars that pit first would negate the gain of being in free air at the front.

Alonso and Ferrari will be watching what Red Bull do like hawks, and will do their best to mirror Webber's strategy as long as it does not risk them falling outside the top four.

Webber is the biggest threat to Alonso's bid for a third world title, but he cannot be too cautious as if he falls behind Button at the start then there is a big danger of allowing Vettel to slip in to take the title.

Vettel and Hamilton have the easiest job in that all they can do is try to win and see what happens behind them.

If Vettel can keep Hamilton behind him on the first lap, which may be difficult because of the McLaren's strong straightline speed, then he should be able to control the race from the front.

For that to be enough for him to take the title he has to hope Alonso is outside the top four, and there could be a scenario where if Button can get past the Spaniard, then Webber is battling with the Ferrari knowing he could help Vettel take the title, which would be a major irony after all the pre-race speculation about the aid being directed in the other direction.

There are other interesting battles further back on the grid, with Rubens Barrichello's Williams-Cosworth looking to battle the Mercedes GP cars of Michael Schumacher and Nico Rosberg for the best of the non-top three teams.

But all attention today, fittingly, will be on the first five cars, as it has been all season.

Races and championships are not decided on a Saturday. Sundays are where things are decided, but Webber's insipid showing means he probably needs to put in the drive of his life today if he is to emerge as a victor.

gcaygill@thenational.ae