An analysis on where Hamilton can overtake pole-sitter Rosberg, Vettel’s tyre tactics to fight up the grid and the all-Finnish battle to the finish.
The tactics of the Mercedes
Fear not, Lewis Hamilton fans, all is not lost.
Both of his previous Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix victories came from starting second on the grid and he will still have high hopes of making it three today.
He was outpaced by teammate Nico Rosberg in qualifying, but Hamilton's best chance of triumphing today is by doing what he did 12 months ago: beating him into the first corner.
They are well-matched for speed, but Hamilton often has had the edge on race pace on Sunday afternoons in 2015.
Despite that, Hamilton has been powerless to prevent Rosberg winning the past two races, in Mexico and Brazil, largely because the German got track position at the start and was able to control the race from there.
If Hamilton does not get the job done at Turn 1 he is going to have to overtake Rosberg to get his 44th career win because he will be expected to mirror Rosberg’s pit strategy, which is likely to be a two-stop one.
Whoever leads out of the two German cars gets the first call to pit when the tyres begin to wear, and that allows him to go quicker on their first lap on fresher rubber while their rival has to run at least one more lap on the older tyre.
Overtaking is possible here, especially at Turn 11, at the end of the second Drag Reduction System (DRS) area, but given how well-matched the Mercedes machines are, it will be difficult for Hamilton to gain the position without a mistake from his rival prompting it.
The championship may already be Hamilton’s but both men will badly want to win this race to end the season in style, so expect another tense duel between the pair.
Vettel’s charge up the field
The opening laps of the race today should be a lot of fun as four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel looks to recover as quickly as possible from starting 16th on the grid.
The Ferrari is the second-fastest car on the track so he should not lack in speed in the endeavour of trying to get up to third which, unless the Mercedes cars hit problems, is about as good as it is going to get.
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He will be able to overtake some rivals at the start, and the Ferrari’s strong engine should allow him to quickly navigate his way into the top 10.
But overtaking those with Mercedes engines powering them could be a tougher prospect, so some flexibility on strategy will be needed. Expect to see Vettel start on the harder Pirelli tyre compound in a bid to run a long first stint in the race.
That could help him gain some free air and allow him to exploit the speed of his car. A podium finish will be tough, but a top-five result is achievable.
If the man, who has won three times in Abu Dhabi in the past, needs any further inspiration he can look back to 2012, when he came through from starting from pit lane to finish third – after he had been disqualified from qualifying when his Red Bull Racing car ran out of fuel.
Advantage Raikkonen in race for fourth
It is not the drivers’ championship at stake, but the all-Finnish fight for fourth place in the drivers’ standings, between Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Raikkonen, still has some intrigue. The pair have collided twice in recent races, in Russia and Mexico, to add some spice to their rivalry.
Bottas holds an one-point lead over Raikkonen, but it looks as if it will be a tall order for him to keep that advantage today.
Williams have struggled in practice and Bottas’s pre-weekend fears that the slow-speed corners in the final sector at Yas Marina Circuit could hurt them certainly appear to have become a reality.
They were more than a second off the pace in practice, and he qualified sixth
Raikkonen and Ferrari looked more assured on track, with third place the starting position as a result and, barring technical problems, it should be the 2007 world champion who has the last laugh on his compatriot today.
gcaygill@thenational.ae
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