The heavily mutated Omicron variant has sparked concerns that it may evade the protection of vaccines – but there have also been suggestions the new version of the coronavirus may be less virulent.
Scientists currently have little data to go on, so hopes the new variant is not as likely to cause serious illness rests largely on reports from doctors in South Africa who treated early Omicron cases.
It will probably be weeks before researchers fully understand Omicron’s pathogenicity, transmissibility and ability to cause illness, even in vaccinated people.
But if it does represent a more mild form of the coronavirus, it could mean that the pandemic follows a pattern seen elsewhere, in which infections become endemic but less severe over time.
“If you think about the extremes, a virus that kills 90 percent of the people it infected would very quickly run out of people. It won’t have anywhere to go,” said Prof Ian Jones, a virologist at the University of Reading in the UK.
“On the other hand, a virus that you hardly notice you have, but was transmitted easily, would be transmitted over time. The tendency is for viruses to lose virulence and cause less severe disease. They become endemic.”
The idea that pathogens tend to become milder as time goes on, sometimes called the law of declining virulence, is often attributed to Theobald Smith, a celebrated American research scientist of the 19th and 20th centuries.
According to the theory, viruses spread more effectively if they replicate quickly but do not cause severe disease, at least in the early stages of infection. This is because if the hosts remain well, they can mix with others and spread the pathogen.
Several disease outbreaks appear to tie in with Mr Smith’s theory.
Among those often quoted are the “Spanish flu” pandemic of 1918, which is thought to have killed tens of millions of people around the globe. Some have suggested the virus gradually became less dangerous as the pandemic continued into 1920, when it ended.
Another example concerns a coronavirus that infects people, OC43. This may have caused the “Russian flu” pandemic of the late 19th century, which is blamed for at least one million deaths. Today, OC43 is much less deadly, as it is one of several viruses that causes the common cold.
While Mr Smith’s idea gained wide acceptance, in recent decades researchers have put forward other models that suggest a more varied range of scenarios, in which evolution towards reduced pathogenicity is not inevitable.
Among the ideas is that if pathogens are durable outside their host, they may be successful when they are both highly transmissible and virulent. Durability allows them to survive outside of their host for extended periods before finding a new host.
The myxoma virus, the cause of myxomatosis in rabbits, while often cited as a case where virulence has declined over time, may actually represent a more mixed picture.
Introduced to Australia, France and the UK in the 1950s, it initially caused devastation among rabbit populations, although as time continued, more rabbits survived infection.
This has been put down to both reduced virulence from the virus and increased resistance in the rabbit populations.
Researchers at the University of Oxford who published a study in 2019 tracing the evolution of rabbits in relation to myxomatosis noted, however, that more virulent strains of the virus have emerged in recent times. There is, they said, an ongoing “arms race” between the virus and the rabbit population.
Evidence so far with the coronavirus has suggested to some scientists that it is not becoming less harmful.
For example, as well as being highly transmissible, the Delta variant has been associated with a higher rate of hospital admissions (and transmissibility) than the Alpha variant, which emerged earlier.
Because the coronavirus spreads most readily in the early stages of disease, before severe symptoms develop, there may be little evolutionary pressure for it to become less virulent. Even if people subsequently fall severely ill and even die, the hypothesis suggests, the virus will already have spread.
According to Dr Andrew Freedman, an infectious diseases specialist at Cardiff University, in terms of evolution “it’s not inevitable” that the coronavirus will cause milder infections as time goes on.
“Mutations can make it more transmissible and virulent in the worst-case scenario,” he said.
If the coronavirus becomes endemic and milder over time, vaccination and natural infection (which confers immunity) are, he said, likely to be the key factors.
Prof Jones also emphasised the importance of widespread immunity in ending the pandemic.
“What will happen over time, the edge of the disease will fade further, as long as immunity is maintained,” he said.
In any case, Prof Jones said that, for the moment, it was unclear whether the Omicron variant causes less severe infection.
While doctors in South Africa have highlighted that cases have been mild, “exact data” has yet to be collected.
“Until we see a huge number of infections, I don’t see it’s a realistic assessment, especially in South Africa, where quite a lot of cases are not reported accurately,” he said.
WISH
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The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Sweet%20Tooth
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JAPAN SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Masaaki Higashiguchi, Shuichi Gonda, Daniel Schmidt
Defenders: Yuto Nagatomo, Tomoaki Makino, Maya Yoshida, Sho Sasaki, Hiroki Sakai, Sei Muroya, Genta Miura, Takehiro Tomiyasu
Midfielders: Toshihiro Aoyama, Genki Haraguchi, Gaku Shibasaki, Wataru Endo, Junya Ito, Shoya Nakajima, Takumi Minamino, Hidemasa Morita, Ritsu Doan
Forwards: Yuya Osako, Takuma Asano, Koya Kitagawa
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Afro%20salons
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Men from Barca's class of 99
Crystal Palace - Frank de Boer
Everton - Ronald Koeman
Manchester City - Pep Guardiola
Manchester United - Jose Mourinho
Southampton - Mauricio Pellegrino
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Young women have more “financial grit”, but fall behind on investing
In an October survey of young adults aged 16 to 25, Charles Schwab found young women are more driven to reach financial independence than young men (67 per cent versus. 58 per cent). They are more likely to take on extra work to make ends meet and see more value than men in creating a plan to achieve their financial goals. Yet, despite all these good ‘first’ measures, they are investing and saving less than young men – falling early into the financial gender gap.
While the women surveyed report spending 36 per cent less than men, they have far less savings than men ($1,267 versus $2,000) – a nearly 60 per cent difference.
In addition, twice as many young men as women say they would invest spare cash, and almost twice as many young men as women report having investment accounts (though most young adults do not invest at all).
“Despite their good intentions, young women start to fall behind their male counterparts in savings and investing early on in life,” said Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz, senior vice president, Charles Schwab. “They start off showing a strong financial planning mindset, but there is still room for further education when it comes to managing their day-to-day finances.”
Ms Schwab-Pomerantz says parents should be conveying the same messages to boys and girls about money, but should tailor those conversations based on the individual and gender.
"Our study shows that while boys are spending more than girls, they also are saving more. Have open and honest conversations with your daughters about the wage and savings gap," she said. "Teach kids about the importance of investing – especially girls, who as we see in this study, aren’t investing as much. Part of being financially prepared is learning to make the most of your money, and that means investing early and consistently."
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Third Test
Result: India won by 203 runs
Series: England lead five-match series 2-1
Gulf Men's League final
Dubai Hurricanes 24-12 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
