Temperatures in the Middle East are set to rise by almost half a degree Celsius per decade, a study has forecast, with extreme weather events — including droughts and torrential rain — becoming more common.
While half a degree might not sound like a major shift, given that temperatures in the region can fluctuate by 10°C to 15°C per day, an IMF report in March said with 1.1°C of warming, half the global population faces water insecurity for at least one month per year.
Researchers in the latest study said the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East have in recent decades warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions.
They also highlighted how greenhouse gas emissions in the region were “growing rapidly” and as a result were making a significant contribution to climate change.
What we are experiencing now is the price of what was emitted decades ago and that all efforts we do now will pay off decades later
Dr Diana Francis,
Khalifa University
However, scientists said if major action was taken globally to reduce carbon emissions and combat other contributors to climate change, the rate at which temperatures continued to increase could be slowed.
“People's day-to-day life will be affected mostly by extreme heat and extreme rain. Both of them are expected to have an increased frequency and intensity,” said Dr Diana Francis of Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, one of the authors of the study.
“It is time to act at all levels to mitigate and adapt to the changes happening to our climate and weather.”
Written by 21 scientists in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and European countries, the paper reviews a host of previous studies to determine the overall situation regarding climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME).
It said the increase in temperatures in the region up to now, of about 0.45 °C per decade, was projected to continue.
The EMME “is warming almost two times faster than the global average”, according to the paper, published in Reviews of Geophysics.
“For the remainder of the century, climate projections indicate an overall warming of up to 5°C and more being strongest in the summer”, the authors wrote.
There will be probably be, the researchers said, a “strongly increasing severity and duration” of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts and dust storms. More torrential rain events able to cause flash floods are also predicted.
The paper said that “a strong increase in the intensity and duration of heatwaves” in the region was a “robust outcome” of all climate models and scenarios, with heat extremes having “the potential to become societally disruptive”.
Another of the study’s authors, Prof Jos Lelieveld of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz and The Cyprus Institute in Nicosia, indicated that there was little room for temperatures in the Middle East to increase further and for lives not to be affected.
“These temperatures are already at the verge of what’s acceptable or bearable for some people. It’s already life-threatening in some cases,” he said.
Reduce carbon emissions
While painting a potentially alarming picture, the paper also said if action was taken, the overall warming and the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events could be limited.
According to Prof Lelieveld, the Middle East should “take very much more seriously” the need to reduce carbon emissions by, for example, deploying more solar power, a sector the UAE has invested in more heavily than some of its neighbours.
As well as deploying renewables and nuclear power, Dr Francis, who heads Khalifa University’s environmental and geophysical sciences lab, said it was important to capture CO2 by planting trees and other greenery or by using carbon capture and storage technology.
“Developing public transportation via trains across the Middle East should be a high priority as well, as this will help to limit emissions from both the air and road traffic sectors,” Dr Francis said.
In addition to CO2, emissions of other greenhouse gases, especially methane, must be reduced, according to Dr Francis.
Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, part of the London School of Economics, which was not connected to the new study, said preventing deforestation should be an additional priority globally.
“Trees and forests soak up CO2 and help us deal with the CO2 we’re pumping into the atmosphere,” he said.
"When we chop down forests we’re making that more difficult. We must stop and replant with trees."
Limiting climate change
While mitigation — efforts to limit climate change — are regarded by scientists as a priority, Prof Lelieveld said there was also a need for the region to adapt to the coming changes.
“They should get ready for life-threatening or societal impact weather extremes, they should adapt the cities,” he said.
“Simple measures will be possible. For example, making the buildings more resilient to heat extremes and making them more reflective.”
While emphasising the importance of action to combat climate change, Dr Francis indicated there were no quick fixes.
“It should be clear to everyone that what we are experiencing now is the price of what was emitted decades ago and that all efforts we do now will pay off decades later,” she said.
An International Monetary Fund report in March said the Middle East and Central Asia face dire economic and financial consequences if nothing is done to address the worsening climate crisis.
According to the Feeling the Heat: Adapting to Climate Change in the Middle East and Central Asia report, climate disasters in the Middle East and Central Asia this century have so far injured and displaced 7 million people, caused more than 2,600 deaths and resulted in $2 billion in damage in an average year.
To address the problem, the world needs to cut global emissions by one half by 2030, the IMF said.
"The UAE has led regional efforts with its pledge to invest more than $160 billion in renewables to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050,” said IMF’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva.
The Details
Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5
THE%20HOLDOVERS
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Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ovasave%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20November%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Majd%20Abu%20Zant%20and%20Torkia%20Mahloul%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Healthtech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Three%20employees%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24400%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
More from our neighbourhood series:
Abu Dhabi GP schedule
Friday: First practice - 1pm; Second practice - 5pm
Saturday: Final practice - 2pm; Qualifying - 5pm
Sunday: Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps) - 5.10pm
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%202-litre%20direct%20injection%20turbo%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%207-speed%20automatic%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20261hp%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20400Nm%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20From%20Dh134%2C999%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Hales' batting career
Tests 11; Runs 573; 100s 0; 50s 5; Avg 27.38; Best 94
ODIs 58; Runs 1,957; 100s 5; 50s 11; Avg 36.24; Best 171
T20s 52; Runs 1,456; 100s 1; 50s 7; Avg 31.65; Best 116 not out
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
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Voices: How A Great Singer Can Change Your Life
Nick Coleman
Jonathan Cape
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 611bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Price: upon application
On sale: now
RESULTS
2.15pm Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
Winner Shawall, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi (jockey), Majed Al Jahouri (trainer)
2.45pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Anna Bella Aa, Fabrice Veron, Abdelkhir Adam
3.15pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner AF Thayer, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
3.45pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner Taajer, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
4.15pm The Ruler of Sharjah Cup – Prestige (PA) Dh250,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner Jawaal, Jim Crowley, Majed Al Jahouri
4.45pm Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner Maqaadeer, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Another way to earn air miles
In addition to the Emirates and Etihad programmes, there is the Air Miles Middle East card, which offers members the ability to choose any airline, has no black-out dates and no restrictions on seat availability. Air Miles is linked up to HSBC credit cards and can also be earned through retail partners such as Spinneys, Sharaf DG and The Toy Store.
An Emirates Dubai-London round-trip ticket costs 180,000 miles on the Air Miles website. But customers earn these ‘miles’ at a much faster rate than airline miles. Adidas offers two air miles per Dh1 spent. Air Miles has partnerships with websites as well, so booking.com and agoda.com offer three miles per Dh1 spent.
“If you use your HSBC credit card when shopping at our partners, you are able to earn Air Miles twice which will mean you can get that flight reward faster and for less spend,” says Paul Lacey, the managing director for Europe, Middle East and India for Aimia, which owns and operates Air Miles Middle East.
LIVING IN...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
