The Middle East is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions when it comes to ecological threats over the next 30 years, according to a global report.
The first Ecological Threat Register, produced by Australia-based Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP), also warned of the mass displacement of 1.2 billion people across the world by 2050.
The Middle East was named alongside Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and North Africa as the regions facing the largest number of ecological risks.
The report stated more than one billion people are living in countries which were unlikely to adapt to new challenges over the next 30 years.
“There are a number of countries in the Middle East that are going to be vulnerable to severe water shortages in the future,” said Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of the IEP.
Countries like Iraq, Syria and Yemen will have low resilience to ecological stresses
“Countries like Iraq, Syria and Yemen will have low resilience to ecological stresses.
“We saw the impact wars had in those countries in terms of the numbers who were forced to migrate. Now they are also going to be facing increased stress on their water and food supplies.”
The Ecological Threat Register measures the risk to countries arising from population growth, water stress, food insecurity, droughts, floods, cyclones, rising temperatures and sea levels.
The report found that 141 countries were likely to be exposed to at least one ecological threat by 2050.
The 19 countries with the highest number of threats have a combined population of 2.1 billion people, representing close to 25 per cent of people in the world.
Water stress represents the most significant concern to life in the Middle East over the coming decades, according to Mr Killelea.
The number of recorded water-related conflict and violent incidents increased by 270 per cent globally in the past decade.
Since 2000, most of those incidents took place in Yemen and Iraq, according to the report.
The report states there are 2.6 billion people in the world who are experiencing water stress today, a figure which is predicted to grow to 5.4 billion people by 2040.
The worst affected countries are predicted to be Lebanon, Singapore, Israel and Iraq.
“Ecological threats and climate change pose serious challenges to global peacefulness,” said Mr Killelea.
Over the next 30 years, lack of access to food and water will only increase without urgent global cooperation, he warned.
“In the absence of action civil unrest, riots and conflict will most likely increase. Covid-19 is already exposing gaps in the global food chain.”
Palestine was also named in the new report as being among the countries where water scarcity represented the biggest ecological threat over the next 30 years.
The report also stated the global demand for food is expected to increase by 50 per cent, meaning that many more people will be at risk of hunger unless there is a significant increase in supply.
More than two billion people across the world already face uncertain access to food, that figure is predicted to increase to 3.5 billion by 2050.
With the world’s population expected to rise to 10 billion over the next three decades, the IEP predicts access to food is going to be a major issue for large sectors of the global population.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, said last month that bolstering food and water security was a top priority for the UAE.
He stressed that the Covid-19 outbreak had only served to highlight the need to be self-sufficient.
A global report, published by the Water Resources Institute (WRI) in August, 2019, ranked the country 10th out of 164 in a global league table of nations where water supplies are most stretched.
The UAE was among 17 countries facing “extremely high water stress”, researchers said, meaning 80 per cent of available surface and groundwater in an average year is being consumed.
Mariam Al Mheiri, Minister of State for Food Security, called for water resources to be managed more effectively through the use of advanced recycling technologies during a meeting with Sheikh Mohammed.
“The food and water security file shows an urgent need for sustainable development and enhancing the work of the management of resources to provide water and food for future generations," she said.
Mr Killelea added that the growing economy in China will also put extreme pressure on global food demand.
“The rising incomes in north Asia, particularly in China, will mean more people will move into the middle class, a demographic that traditionally consumes more food,” he said.
“That puts additional stresses on what food is out there which is likely to increase the cost as well.”
The countries predicted to struggle the most with food supply issues are Sierra Leone, Liberia, Niger, Malawi and Lesotho, where more than half of the population already experience uncertainty with access to sufficient food to be healthy.
It is not just countries in the developing world that are at risk from ecological threats over the coming decades.
Mr Killelea said regions such as Europe and North America will be impacted by the number of refugees created by ecological crises.
“We saw how the refugee crisis of 2015 and 2016, which saw two million people flee to Europe, created political turbulence and social unrest,” he said.
“Mass displacement will lead to larger refugee flows to the most developed countries.
“Ecological change is the next big global threat to our planet and people’s lives, and we must unlock the power of business and government action to build resilience for the places most at risk.”
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
Sam Smith
Where: du Arena, Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday November 24
Rating: 4/5
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: BorrowMe (BorrowMe.com)
Date started: August 2021
Founder: Nour Sabri
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce / Marketplace
Size: Two employees
Funding stage: Seed investment
Initial investment: $200,000
Investors: Amr Manaa (director, PwC Middle East)
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Ammar 808:
Maghreb United
Sofyann Ben Youssef
Glitterbeat
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
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Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
What is tokenisation?
Tokenisation refers to the issuance of a blockchain token, which represents a virtually tradable real, tangible asset. A tokenised asset is easily transferable, offers good liquidity, returns and is easily traded on the secondary markets.
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Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Adele: The Stories Behind The Songs
Caroline Sullivan
Carlton Books
Dubai World Cup Carnival Card:
6.30pm: Handicap US$135,000 (Turf) 1,200m
7.05pm: Handicap $135,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
7.40pm: Zabeel Turf Listed $175,000 (T) 2,000m
8.15pm: Cape Verdi Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,600m
8.50pm: Handicap $135,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,600m
THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
Match info
Liverpool 4
Salah (19'), Mane (45 2', 53'), Sturridge (87')
West Ham United 0
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Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
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Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Emergency phone numbers in the UAE
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
