The UAE can avoid a second wave of the coronavirus if social distancing and measures to control the entry of infectious individuals into the country are maintained, a senior healthcare executive said.
Artificial intelligence modelling highlighted the possibility of a rise in cases over winter, but Dr Gareth Goodier, chief executive of Abu Dhabi Health Services Company (Seha), said this could be averted.
For the past few months, AI-based forecasts about how the pandemic will play out in the Emirates have been provided to Seha, which owns and operates public hospitals in Abu Dhabi, by a UK-based company, Draper & Dash.
"Our numbers are very small at the moment and controllable," Dr Goodier told The National. "The constraints on travel are sensible. Anybody coming back from an overseas trip now is tested and monitored and, if they're not clear, has to go into quarantine.
“If that’s maintained, and that’s in the gift of the government, I don’t think we’ll have much of an upsurge at all.”
[The AI modelling] was pretty spot on in terms of timing and volume, within a few days. It enabled us to plan for all of the resources required
Draper & Dash’s AI-based model combines local data with information on how the pandemic is developing globally. The company has also been producing forecasts for the UK’s National Health Service.
Predicting a second wave was “much more difficult than managing the first phase”, said Dr Goodier, because it was not just a question of the coronavirus in isolation. The effect of influenza season – which peaks in the winter – could be important, too.
Evidence so far from Australia, which is in the middle of its winter, is that social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing and other precautions have meant that there is much less winter flu than normal, which bodes well for the UAE in winter.
Orlando Agrippa, Draper & Dash’s chief executive, said modelling suggested the UK and UAE could see an increase in cases over winter, but not on the scale of the initial upsurge, which peaked in April and May in the Emirates.
“We don’t think the second wave will be as big as the first wave," said Mr Agrippa. He expects "a meaningful rise in cases" but public awareness will go far in stemming the spread.
“When you combine an infection and disease like Covid with seasonal flu, where thousands of people die each year, we believe we’ll have a challenging mix of things to deal with.
“We’re predicting that for both the UK and Abu Dhabi from autumn. We believe Abu Dhabi will be behind the UK," he said.
An advantage that the UAE has compared to some other countries is the relatively modest population size. If control measures have to be introduced, Mr Agrippa said the authorities have “a lot more ability to move the lever” than governments in some other nations.
At present, the UAE has recorded almost 60,000 coronavirus cases and 347 deaths from the pandemic.
Seha’s efforts to deal with the crisis have included building field hospitals in Abu Dhabi, Al Ain and Dubai, plus the running of 12 hospitals in Abu Dhabi, dozens of outpatient clinics and a number of drive-through testing centres across the nation.
To produce the forecasts, information from other nations of particular relevance to the UAE were used.
For example, analysing how the pandemic has played out among Singapore’s migrant workers has offered clues as to how it will develop in the UAE.
Seha has also received forecasts from the Department of Health Abu Dhabi but Dr Goodier said the Draper & Dash model had proved the most accurate.
“It was pretty spot on in terms of timing and volume, within a few days,” he said. “It enabled us to plan for all of the resources required. Seha has played a big role and we took on something like 48 extra facilities.”
Forecasts have been especially useful in planning the number of acute beds that may be needed. Should there be a second wave, Dr Goodier said Seha could provide up to 1,000 critical care beds, compared to about 600 in the first wave of the pandemic.
SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
MATCH INFO
Fixture: Thailand v UAE, Tuesday, 4pm (UAE)
TV: Abu Dhabi Sports
The years Ramadan fell in May
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Results
ATP Dubai Championships on Monday (x indicates seed):
First round
Roger Federer (SUI x2) bt Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) 6-4, 3-6, 6-1
Fernando Verdasco (ESP) bt Thomas Fabbiano (ITA) 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Marton Fucsovics (HUN) bt Damir Dzumhur (BIH) 6-1, 7-6 (7/5)
Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO) bt Karen Khachanov (RUS x4) 6-4, 6-1
Jan-Lennard Struff (GER) bt Milos Raonic (CAN x7) 6-4, 5-7, 6-4
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Profile Box
Company/date started: 2015
Founder/CEO: Mohammed Toraif
Based: Manama, Bahrain
Sector: Sales, Technology, Conservation
Size: (employees/revenue) 4/ 5,000 downloads
Stage: 1 ($100,000)
Investors: Two first-round investors including, 500 Startups, Fawaz Al Gosaibi Holding (Saudi Arabia)
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The design
The protective shell is covered in solar panels to make use of light and produce energy. This will drastically reduce energy loss.
More than 80 per cent of the energy consumed by the French pavilion will be produced by the sun.
The architecture will control light sources to provide a highly insulated and airtight building.
The forecourt is protected from the sun and the plants will refresh the inner spaces.
A micro water treatment plant will recycle used water to supply the irrigation for the plants and to flush the toilets. This will reduce the pavilion’s need for fresh water by 30 per cent.
Energy-saving equipment will be used for all lighting and projections.
Beyond its use for the expo, the pavilion will be easy to dismantle and reuse the material.
Some elements of the metal frame can be prefabricated in a factory.
From architects to sound technicians and construction companies, a group of experts from 10 companies have created the pavilion.
Work will begin in May; the first stone will be laid in Dubai in the second quarter of 2019.
Construction of the pavilion will take 17 months from May 2019 to September 2020.
Veil (Object Lessons)
Rafia Zakaria
Bloomsbury Academic
UAE%20Warriors%2033%20Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFeatherweight%20title%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAli%20Al%20Qaisi%20by%20Jesse%20Arnett%20by%20submission%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%20title%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EJosh%20Togo%20bt%20Tahir%20Abdullaev%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFlyweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EIago%20Ribeiro%20bt%20Juan%20Puerta%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMiddleweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EYerkin%20Darmen%20bt%20Tyler%20Ray%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAbdulla%20Al%20Bousheiri%20bt%20John%20Adajar%20by%20submission%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20232lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAsylzhan%20Bakhytzhanuly%20bt%20Hasan%20Yousefi%20by%20submission%2C%20round%202%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAlin%20Chirila%20bt%20Silas%20Robson%20by%20KO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EArvin%20Chan%20bt%20Abdi%20Farah%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELightweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EOle-Jorgen%20Johnsen%20bt%20Nart%20Abida%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EOtar%20Tanzilov%20bt%20Eduardo%20Dinis%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStrawweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EColine%20Biron%20bt%20Aysun%20Erge%20via%20submission%2C%20round%202%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESoslan%20Margiev%20bt%20Mathieu%20Rakotondrazanany%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EBakhromjon%20Ruziev%20bt%20Younes%20Chemali%20by%20majority%20decision%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Race card
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) US$100,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Meydan Classic Listed (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,600m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,600m
8.50pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 2 (TB) $300,000 (T) 2,810m
9.25pm: Curlin Stakes Listed (TB) $175,000 (D) 2,000m
10pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m
10.35pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
The National selections
6.30pm: Shahm, 7.05pm: Well Of Wisdom, 7.40pm: Lucius Tiberius, 8.15pm: Captain Von Trapp, 8.50pm: Secret Advisor, 9.25pm: George Villiers, 10pm: American Graffiti, 10.35pm: On The Warpath
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
NEW%20PRICING%20SCHEME%20FOR%20APPLE%20MUSIC%2C%20TV%2B%20AND%20ONE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EApple%20Music%3Cbr%3EMonthly%20individual%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2410.99%20(from%20%249.99)%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMonthly%20family%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2416.99%20(from%20%2414.99)%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EIndividual%20annual%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24109%20(from%20%2499)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EApple%20TV%2B%3Cbr%3EMonthly%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%246.99%20(from%20%244.99)%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAnnual%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2469%20(from%20%2449.99)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EApple%20One%3Cbr%3EMonthly%20individual%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2416.95%20(from%20%2414.95)%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMonthly%20family%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2422.95%20(from%20%2419.95)%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMonthly%20premier%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2432.95%20(from%20%2429.95)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Palestine and Israel - live updates
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Saturday (All UAE kick-off times)
Valencia v Atletico Madrid (midnight)
Mallorca v Alaves (4pm)
Barcelona v Getafe (7pm)
Villarreal v Levante (9.30pm)
Sunday
Granada v Real Volladolid (midnight)
Sevilla v Espanyol (3pm)
Leganes v Real Betis (5pm)
Eibar v Real Sociedad (7pm)
Athletic Bilbao v Osasuna (9.30pm)
Monday
Real Madrid v Celta Vigo (midnight)
Five healthy carbs and how to eat them
Brown rice: consume an amount that fits in the palm of your hand
Non-starchy vegetables, such as broccoli: consume raw or at low temperatures, and don’t reheat
Oatmeal: look out for pure whole oat grains or kernels, which are locally grown and packaged; avoid those that have travelled from afar
Fruit: a medium bowl a day and no more, and never fruit juices
Lentils and lentil pasta: soak these well and cook them at a low temperature; refrain from eating highly processed pasta variants
Courtesy Roma Megchiani, functional nutritionist at Dubai’s 77 Veggie Boutique
Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
