Many hundreds of lives could be saved in the Gulf region if more people start wearing masks to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, a regional health conference has heard.
Although the Riyadh Digital Global Health Summit was told that mask wearing in the region is already high by global standards, modelling suggests as many as 1,000 extra deaths could be saved in Saudi Arabia alone this year.
It comes as epidemiologists, grappling with multiple unknowns such as whether a vaccine will be approved or people’s behaviour will change, struggle to forecast how the pandemic will develop.
Addressing the conference remotely, Prof Ali Mokdad, a health metrics specialist at the University of Washington who focuses on the Middle East, said his forecasts suggested Saudi Arabia’s coronavirus death toll would reach about 5,800 by the beginning of December. Until now the Kingdom has registered around 3,200 deaths.
Right now mask-wearing is around 75 per cent [in Saudi Arabia], but 1,000 less deaths could be achieved if 95 per cent of people in Saudi Arabia wore masks
He highlighted the UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia as countries where much of the population already wears masks, but said many lives could be saved if more people used face coverings.
“Right now mask-wearing is around 75 per cent [in Saudi Arabia], but 1,000 less deaths could be achieved if 95 per cent of people in Saudi Arabia wore masks,” he said.
“For Saudi Arabia, we’re showing how many beds they need. Saudi Arabia will not have a shortage of beds, will not have a shortage of ICUs [intensive care unit beds] or ventilators, because they have a strong medical system.”
Because infection rates in the country are forecast to remain relatively under control, a lockdown is unlikely to become necessary.
However, the conference heard the picture varied significantly across the Middle East, with the situation in Iran forecast to deteriorate dramatically as infection rates increase.
By the beginning of December, the number of deaths in the country is could exceed 71,000, almost four times the current total of just over 18,000.
“We expect it will go into a lockdown some time in October. In Iran we expect that there will be a shortage of beds some time in November in the peak of the second wave,” said Prof Mokdad.
“This wave is staying with us in a roller coaster. They will not have enough beds, they will not have enough ICUs compared to what we’re showing in Saudi Arabia.”
In the United States, where there is resistance among some to wearing masks, the death toll is forecast by Prof Mokdad to grow to about 295,000 by the beginning of December, almost twice what it is now – about 163,000.
However, if 95 per cent of people wore masks outside the home, 66,000 of the additional deaths could be avoided. This represents “a huge difference”, Prof Mokdad said.
Experts acknowledged that projections for death and infection rates are more difficult to make now than at the pandemic’s start, when the initial wave of cases was relatively easy to understand.
“The pandemic is much more unpredictable now,” said Dr Erik Volz, of the School of Public Health at Imperial College London.
“It depends on evolution [of the virus], political considerations, behavioural fatigue and a vaccine.
“We don’t know if we’ll have an effective vaccine and how quickly production can be ramped up. These are giant unknowns and we won’t have greater clarity until later this year.”
One positive he highlighted was that the quality of care for patients with Covid-19 has “improved dramatically” in recent months, especially in developed countries. Drugs such as the antiviral medicine remdesivir are a key reason for higher survival rates.
However, the new coronavirus is likely never to be eliminated, Dr Volz said, even though there is not continued animal-to-human transmission, as is the case with, for example, the coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, for which camels act as a “reservoir” and transmit the virus to people.
“We’re probably not going to be able to eradicate this even if we have an effective vaccine. This is of the same order of difficulty as seasonal influenza,” said Dr Volz.
The health summit has brought together health and digital-technology specialists from across the globe, with most participants taking part remotely.
The coronavirus's emergence is the first pandemic of the digital age, and has sparked innovation, such as in contract tracing and symptom checking technology. However, the conference was told there was much room for improvement.
“We have a long journey to ensure the digital transformation of the healthcare sector is accelerated, so as we get through this first pandemic of the digital era, we … take advantage of the digital technologies,” said Bernardo Mariano, the World Health Organisation’s chief information officer.
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Graphene is extracted from graphite and is made up of pure carbon.
It is 200 times more resistant than steel and five times lighter than aluminum.
It conducts electricity better than any other material at room temperature.
It is thought that graphene could boost the useful life of batteries by 10 per cent.
Graphene can also detect cancer cells in the early stages of the disease.
The material was first discovered when Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov were 'playing' with graphite at the University of Manchester in 2004.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The advice provided in our columns does not constitute legal advice and is provided for information only. Readers are encouraged to seek independent legal advice.
5 of the most-popular Airbnb locations in Dubai
Bobby Grudziecki, chief operating officer of Frank Porter, identifies the five most popular areas in Dubai for those looking to make the most out of their properties and the rates owners can secure:
• Dubai Marina
The Marina and Jumeirah Beach Residence are popular locations, says Mr Grudziecki, due to their closeness to the beach, restaurants and hotels.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh482 to Dh739
Two bedroom: Dh627 to Dh960
Three bedroom: Dh721 to Dh1,104
• Downtown
Within walking distance of the Dubai Mall, Burj Khalifa and the famous fountains, this location combines business and leisure. “Sure it’s for tourists,” says Mr Grudziecki. “Though Downtown [still caters to business people] because it’s close to Dubai International Financial Centre."
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh497 to Dh772
Two bedroom: Dh646 to Dh1,003
Three bedroom: Dh743 to Dh1,154
• City Walk
The rising star of the Dubai property market, this area is lined with pristine sidewalks, boutiques and cafes and close to the new entertainment venue Coca Cola Arena. “Downtown and Marina are pretty much the same prices,” Mr Grudziecki says, “but City Walk is higher.”
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh524 to Dh809
Two bedroom: Dh682 to Dh1,052
Three bedroom: Dh784 to Dh1,210
• Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Marina’s little brother JLT resides on the other side of Sheikh Zayed road but is still close enough to beachside outlets and attractions. The big selling point for Airbnb renters, however, is that “it’s cheaper than Dubai Marina”, Mr Grudziecki says.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh422 to Dh629
Two bedroom: Dh549 to Dh818
Three bedroom: Dh631 to Dh941
• Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah's proximity to luxury resorts is attractive, especially for big families, says Mr Grudziecki, as Airbnb renters can secure competitive rates on one of the world’s most famous tourist destinations.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh503 to Dh770
Two bedroom: Dh654 to Dh1,002
Three bedroom: Dh752 to Dh1,152
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- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
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- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
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