The largest study into the movement of Keralites to the Middle East for jobs has begun following a decline in migration numbers.
Normally, the study is conducted every four to five years but a similar exercise was undertaken in 2016 following reports of a decline in migration to the Middle East.
The survey two years ago was the first to record a drop in Keralite migrants – from 2.4 million in 2014, to 2.24m in 2016.
Nicknamed ‘Gulfies’, people from the south Indian state of Kerala have shared a rich history with the UAE with migration beginning even before the discovery of oil.
Since then, many have improved the lives of their families back home with money earned in the Middle East pumped into bigger houses and better education for children.
As many as 25,000 households will be surveyed for the Kerala Migration Study that will include an eight-page questionnaire on subjects ranging from education, health and home finances.
Field work began last week and runs until March. Preliminary findings expected by the end of April aim to explain migration patterns to the Gulf states, said S Irudaya Rajan, professor at the Centre for Development Studies in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala’s capital city.
The centre has been conducting this study for 20 years. The eighth cycle will also address the experiences of female migrants, women whose husbands have worked overseas for more than 20 years and the problems fresh job-seekers face.
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“On average one out of five households in Kerala are migrants. We want to know if there are new households where this is picking up or if it is the same families from the same areas going out,” Mr Rajan said.
The findings are expected to show if the slump in oil prices and introduction of VAT in parts of the GCC has had an impact on migration.
For UAE resident Farhan Ahmad, moving to the Gulf is still a better option.
“My son wants to be a doctor. I could not have dreamt of this without working here for 30 years,” said Mr Ahmad, a taxi driver. His brother and two cousins from Kerala also work in the UAE.
“It will take time to see if people save less because of VAT and if that makes fewer people come here. There are taxes at home but living costs are cheaper.”
Previous surveys such as the one in 2008 reflected the impact of the global financial crisis which left workers unpaid when construction companies closed down in Saudi Arabia. In most cases Indian government officials worked with authorities to resolve the cases and repatriate workers.
Despite this, the number of Keralites moving to the UAE in 2016 rose compared with other countries moving up to 41.5 per cent from 38.7 per cent in 2011.
“We want to map trends to see if there is a further decline or it has picked up. Some people believe 2016 was a short-term trend that will correct itself. The is another dimension for the Gulf because of low oil prices, the crisis over Qatar and new taxes,” Mr Rajan said.
Experts pinned the 2016 decline on educated migrants considering other countries instead.
“In Kerala, an aging population, higher level of development, higher wages, and an increase in education levels have all contributed the decline. These changes have also contributed to a shift in unskilled to skilled migration, particularly among highly educated women, as well as the opportunity for some to use the Gulf as a launchpad for onward migration in USA, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand,” said Cedwyn Fernandes, director of Middlesex University Dubai.
Most of the money earned by Keralites in the UAE is sent home. Previous studies have revealed that remittances were equal to one third of the state’s income.
While living standards have improved, the survey will also throw up cases of loans taken by workers, families deep in debt and the social consequences of families living apart.
Previous surveys estimate that one million women in Kerala live without their husbands, two million children are brought up without one or both parents and four million elderly live alone.
“We cannot shy away from how important migration is to the Kerala economy. It has changed the landscape both economically and socially because it has created wealth and a new type of people whose children can study in better schools and colleges,” Mr Rajan said.
“But we should talk about the negative because although money is important, it is not everything. Some have been cheated through migration, some have died.
Separation plays a big part in their lives. When people who leave their wife and children are not paid salaries, imagine the psychological problems they suffer. This is not just for migrants from Kerala. This story can be replayed for migrants from Bangladesh, Nepal and Philippines. People say remittances bring down poverty, but we should also look beyond the numbers at the hearts and minds of the migrants.”
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Expert input
If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?
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“If I had all the money, I would approach Nike and ask them to do my own Air Force 1, that’s one of my dreams.” Yaseen Benchouche
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Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
Federer's 19 grand slam titles
Australian Open (5 titles) - 2004 bt Marat Safin; 2006 bt Marcos Baghdatis; 2007 bt Fernando Gonzalez; 2010 bt Andy Murray; 2017 bt Rafael Nadal
French Open (1 title) - 2009 bt Robin Soderling
Wimbledon (8 titles) - 2003 bt Mark Philippoussis; 2004 bt Andy Roddick; 2005 bt Andy Roddick; 2006 bt Rafael Nadal; 2007 bt Rafael Nadal; 2009 bt Andy Roddick; 2012 bt Andy Murray; 2017 bt Marin Cilic
US Open (5 titles) - 2004 bt Lleyton Hewitt; 2005 bt Andre Agassi; 2006 bt Andy Roddick; 2007 bt Novak Djokovic; 2008 bt Andy Murray
Juliot Vinolia’s checklist for adopting alternate-day fasting
- Don’t do it more than once in three days
- Don’t go under 700 calories on fasting days
- Ensure there is sufficient water intake, as the body can go in dehydration mode
- Ensure there is enough roughage (fibre) in the food on fasting days as well
- Do not binge on processed or fatty foods on non-fasting days
- Complement fasting with plant-based foods, fruits, vegetables, seafood. Cut out processed meats and processed carbohydrates
- Manage your sleep
- People with existing gastric or mental health issues should avoid fasting
- Do not fast for prolonged periods without supervision by a qualified expert
