Middle East hosts 19.5m refugees, an all time high


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DUBAI // Forced displacement across the world has risen dramatically during the past few years, reaching an unprecedented peak last year, according to a senior United Nations official.

Amin Awad, the regional refugee coordinator at the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, said more than 51 million people were displaced by the end of last year – 40 per cent of whom originated in the Middle East.

He told the Dubai International Humanitarian and Aid Development Conference on Wednesday that people were “forcefully displaced because of conflict in their countries internally, or they crossed international borders and became refugees”.

“This number marks a new record [as] the largest number of displaced people since the Second World War, and when we look around us in the Middle East and North Africa, we see it has become an even more prominent characteristic of the region, which hosts two of the world’s largest refugee populations.”

There are more than five million Palestinian refugees and four million Syrians who have been displaced outside their country. Another 7.5 million are displaced internally. An additional three million displaced in Iraq brings the total to 19.5 million.

“That’s a big number for a small region like the Middle East,” Mr Awad said. “Our key message on causes and consequences of forced displacement is [it is] largely caused by armed conflict.

“The impact on the protection of civilians has been well documented by international humanitarian law advocates and organisations, and there is clearly a need to strengthen accountability and address impunity when it comes to human rights violations.”

He also said conflicts had increasingly become interconnected. “Today, the conflict in Syria and Iraq generated the most horrific spillover into neighbouring countries in recent history.

“We have seen a phenomena of armed groups that have the ability to be mobile and move [to other countries] and have subsidiaries. That is the spillover and a threat to international security.”

Last year, 205,000 people crossed the Mediterranean into Europe from North Africa. “The numbers are horrific,” he said. “Most are considered to be economic migrants coming from central and western Africa due to lack of development, opportunities, lack of future, conflicts and utter poverty.

“We also have a number of refugee populations – over 60,000 Syrians who crossed the Mediterranean last year, with them a few thousand from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Afghanistan and over 5,000 Palestinians from Syria. Of those 205,000, 3,600 perished trying to cross,” Mr Awad said.

The first two months of this year registered a higher number of refugees trying to cross than in the same period last year. “So I am sure when the year closes, we will have a bigger number.”

Pierre Kraehenbuhl, the commissioner general at the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, called for determined political action.

“The reality is the instability currently sweeping through the region is going to end up reversing the development achievements of countries themselves, and those we were able to achieve for Palestinian refugees, unless something is undertaken at the political level,” Mr Kraehenbuhl said. “Emerging in this region is a landscape of intensified conflict, repression and a wave of extremism. The [Gulf] is home to 2.5 million Palestinian refugees, out of five million in the region. Today, out of 560,000 Palestinian refugees originally in Syria, 460,000 remain and they are almost all dependent on our assistance, which is a signal of disposition and loss of another generation of Palestinians.”

Christos Stylianides, European commissioner for humanitarian aid and crisis management, said:“We need to find new resources together by joining forces, so that we ensure an effective and coordinated humanitarian response to these needs.”

cmalek@thenational.ae

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

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