WARNING: Potential spoilers
It is humanity’s worst nightmare: a comet five kilometres wide will collide with Earth and wipe out almost everything that lives and breathes – including us.
This is the scenario in Netflix’s film Don’t Look Up, where a PhD student played by Jennifer Lawrence and a professor in the form of Leonardo DiCaprio crunch the numbers on a whiteboard and realise we are doomed.
While the Hollywood treatment may make the scenario seem fanciful, a devastating impact that destroys most life on Earth has already happened.
About 65 million years ago an asteroid 10-15km wide crashed into Earth at Chicxulub in Mexico, sending vast amounts of material into the atmosphere and sparking a global winter.
When you fragment the object [with nuclear weapons], you don’t move the shower away from the Earth. You just create a cloud
Prof Massimiliano Vasile,
University of Strathclyde
Most life, including the dinosaurs, was destroyed, ushering the era of mammals, which until that time had typically been smaller than rabbits. Another legacy was a crater 100km wide and 30km deep.
Smaller asteroids also pose dangers. For example, hundreds of square miles of forest were destroyed when one about 60 metres wide exploded over Siberia in 1908.
Here we look at the dangers and consider the accuracy of Don’t Look Up.
Would we see it coming six months in advance, as in the film?
In Don’t Look Up, the comet heading for Earth (comets are mostly gas, ice and dust, while asteroids are largely made of rock) was identified six months before it was due to hit.
The comet was modelled on Neowise, which was discovered in late March 2020, just a few months before it made its closest approach to the Sun (and the Earth), which suggests that Don’t Look Up’s timescale was realistic.
While saying that Neowise shows that advance warning of a major comet of just six months is possible, Massimiliano Vasile, a professor of space systems engineering at the University of Strathclyde in Scotland, said such objects would more likely be identified years ahead.
Don’t Look Up’s comet came from the Oort Cloud, the spherical layer of objects surrounding the Sun, and Prof Vasile said two major real-life comets from there (C/2017 K2 and C/2017 T2) were identified five years and two-and-half years respectively before their closest approach to Earth.
“It is unlikely that the size of the comet would be known with such precision as in the movie after the first observation,” said Prof Vasile, who is scientific adviser to the UK delegation of the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, part of the UN’s Office for Outer Space Affairs.
“The first observation would be followed by many repeated observations from multiple telescopes and involving the whole community.”
Is the threat of a comet or asteroid hitting Earth real?
Monitoring has advanced greatly, said Prof Brad Gibson, director of the E A Milne Centre for Astrophysics at the University of Hull in the UK.
“Two decades ago, only a handful of the potential species-ending kilometre-sized asteroids had been catalogued and their orbits through the solar system carefully measured,” he said.
“As of today, essentially 100 per cent of these extreme asteroids (roughly 1,000 of them) are now covered, and we are in no danger from any of these, at least for several centuries.”
With objects between about 150 metres and a kilometre in size, about half have been catalogued, leaving, Prof Gibson said, “thousands out there that we have yet to discover”.
Typically the undiscovered objects are best observed from the southern hemisphere, where there are fewer monitoring telescopes in operation.
“There are too many blind spots. We need dedicated space-based observatories which can provide us with a 360-degree view of objects potentially targeting the earth,” said Dr Dimitra Atri, a research scientist at the NYU Abu Dhabi Centre for Space Science.
Prof Gibson said over the coming years, as multiple resources come online, 100 per cent monitoring of large (150+ metres) objects will be achieved, and the census of smaller ones – currently “wildly incomplete” – will improve.
Would just a few scientists know?
Don’t Look Up depicts Lawrence and DiCaprio as lone experts who identify the large comet.
Initially, they are told by a sceptical White House not to tell anyone what they know. They eventually go on national television to tell viewers - with mixed results.
In reality, multiple groups identify potential threats and information is shared through established networks, including SMPAG and the International Asteroid Warning Network. Scientific agencies are informed first, then the public.
“It is unlikely that a single person on a white board would calculate the orbit and decide that there is for sure [going to be] an impact,” said Prof Vasile.
Normally, the orbit is initially calculated with a lot of uncertainty and this uncertainty reduces after further observations.
“A decision will be very difficult after the initial observation,” he said. “For the same reason the public will not be informed until there is a much higher degree of certainty … How to communicate this to the public is a very delicate point.”
Could we fire weapons to destroy an asteroid or comet?
There is much interest in deflecting a potentially dangerous asteroid or comet, and an experiment to test out this method began in November when Nasa’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (Dart) spacecraft was launched on a rocket.
In about nine months’ time Dart’s spacecraft is set to smash into a 170-metre asteroid, Dimorphos, at 15,000mph and scientists will see if the object, which is seven million miles away, has been deflected. Dimorphos is not heading for Earth, so the exercise is about testing the technology.
Scientists have modelled blowing up asteroids using nuclear bombs. Recent findings indicated that with a 100-metre asteroid, a nuclear explosion two months before a projected impact would prevent nearly all fragments from hitting Earth.
However, Prof Vasile said fragmentation carried the threat of creating smaller asteroids that would hit Earth.
“When you fragment the object, you don’t move the shower away from the Earth. You just create a cloud,” he said.
In one million years, Prof Gibson said, a second Sun will pass through our solar system and about 10 million “planet-killing comets will come raining down into the inner solar system”. With current technology, humankind would be powerless to do anything about this.
“If anything is going to wipe us out in an astrophysical sense, that’s the one to watch for,” he said.
Would the public believe the threat?
In an era of fake news, conspiracy theories and widespread anti-vaccine sentiment, it's likely some would simply refuse to believe the reports if there was a threat posed by an object in outer space.
The film's main thrust centres on the battle scientists face to convince decision-makers - including a Donald Trump-style president played by Meryl Streep - of the threats posed by the comet.
Later, our protagonists are horrified as a technology tycoon decides rare minerals on the comet are too valuable to shoot down and that it should be mined even as it hurtles towards Earth.
An entertaining but unsubtle allegory of looming climate change and big business' interests, the film sheds light on what scientist Peter Kalmus, a data scientist at Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, has said "captures the madness I see every day".
Zakat definitions
Zakat: an Arabic word meaning ‘to cleanse’ or ‘purification’.
Nisab: the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to pay zakat. Traditionally, the nisab threshold was 87.48 grams of gold, or 612.36 grams of silver. The monetary value of the nisab therefore varies by current prices and currencies.
Zakat Al Mal: the ‘cleansing’ of wealth, as one of the five pillars of Islam; a spiritual duty for all Muslims meeting the ‘nisab’ wealth criteria in a lunar year, to pay 2.5 per cent of their wealth in alms to the deserving and needy.
Zakat Al Fitr: a donation to charity given during Ramadan, before Eid Al Fitr, in the form of food. Every adult Muslim who possesses food in excess of the needs of themselves and their family must pay two qadahs (an old measure just over 2 kilograms) of flour, wheat, barley or rice from each person in a household, as a minimum.
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
The specs: 2019 Infiniti QX50
Price, base: Dh138,000 (estimate)
Engine: 2.0L, turbocharged, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 268hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 380Nm @ 4,400rpm
Fuel economy: 6.7L / 100km (estimate)
UAE finals day
Friday, April 13
Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
3pm, UAE Conference: Dubai Tigers v Sharjah Wanderers
6.30pm, UAE Premiership: Dubai Exiles v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
MATCH INFO
League Cup, last 16
Manchester City v Southampton, Tuesday, 11.45pm (UAE)
England v West Indies
England squad for the first Test Cook, Stoneman, Westley, Root (captain), Malan, Stokes, Bairstow, Moeen, Roland-Jones, Broad, Anderson, Woakes, Crane
Fixtures
1st Test Aug 17-21, Edgbaston
2nd Test Aug 25-29, Headingley
3rd Test Sep 7-11, Lord's
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
'Spies in Disguise'
Director: Nick Bruno and Troy Quane
Stars: Will Smith, Tom Holland, Karen Gillan and Roshida Jones
Rating: 4 out of 5 stars
Rankings
ATP: 1. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 10,955 pts; 2. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 8,320; 3. Alexander Zverev (GER) 6,475 ( 1); 5. Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) 5,060 ( 1); 6. Kevin Anderson (RSA) 4,845 ( 1); 6. Roger Federer (SUI) 4,600 (-3); 7. Kei Nishikori (JPN) 4,110 ( 2); 8. Dominic Thiem (AUT) 3,960; 9. John Isner (USA) 3,155 ( 1); 10. Marin Cilic (CRO) 3,140 (-3)
WTA: 1. Naomi Osaka (JPN) 7,030 pts ( 3); 2. Petra Kvitova (CZE) 6,290 ( 4); 3. Simona Halep (ROM) 5,582 (-2); 4. Sloane Stephens (USA) 5,307 ( 1); 5. Karolina Pliskova (CZE) 5,100 ( 3); 6. Angelique Kerber (GER) 4,965 (-4); 7. Elina Svitolina (UKR) 4,940; 8. Kiki Bertens (NED) 4,430 ( 1); 9. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) 3,566 (-6); 10. Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) 3,485 ( 1)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
If you go
Flight connections to Ulaanbaatar are available through a variety of hubs, including Seoul and Beijing, with airlines including Mongolian Airlines and Korean Air. While some nationalities, such as Americans, don’t need a tourist visa for Mongolia, others, including UAE citizens, can obtain a visa on arrival, while others including UK citizens, need to obtain a visa in advance. Contact the Mongolian Embassy in the UAE for more information.
Nomadic Road offers expedition-style trips to Mongolia in January and August, and other destinations during most other months. Its nine-day August 2020 Mongolia trip will cost from $5,250 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, two nights’ hotel accommodation in Ulaanbaatar, vehicle rental, fuel, third party vehicle liability insurance, the services of a guide and support team, accommodation, food and entrance fees; nomadicroad.com
A fully guided three-day, two-night itinerary at Three Camel Lodge costs from $2,420 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, accommodation, meals and excursions including the Yol Valley and Flaming Cliffs. A return internal flight from Ulaanbaatar to Dalanzadgad costs $300 per person and the flight takes 90 minutes each way; threecamellodge.com
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
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if you go
The flights
The closest international airport to the TMB trail is Geneva (just over an hour’s drive from the French ski town of Chamonix where most people start and end the walk). Direct flights from the UAE to Geneva are available with Etihad and Emirates from about Dh2,790 including taxes.
The trek
The Tour du Mont Blanc takes about 10 to 14 days to complete if walked in its entirety, but by using the services of a tour operator such as Raw Travel, a shorter “highlights” version allows you to complete the best of the route in a week, from Dh6,750 per person. The trails are blocked by snow from about late October to early May. Most people walk in July and August, but be warned that trails are often uncomfortably busy at this time and it can be very hot. The prime months are June and September.
Brief scoreline:
Liverpool 2
Keita 5', Firmino 26'
Porto 0
25%20Days%20to%20Aden
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The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
Asia Cup Qualifier
Final
UAE v Hong Kong
Live on OSN Cricket HD. Coverage starts at 5.30am
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies direct from Dubai to Rio de Janeiro from Dh7,000 return including taxes. Avianca fliles from Rio to Cusco via Lima from $399 (Dhxx) return including taxes.
The trip
From US$1,830 per deluxe cabin, twin share, for the one-night Spirit of the Water itinerary and US$4,630 per deluxe cabin for the Peruvian Highlands itinerary, inclusive of meals, and beverages. Surcharges apply for some excursions.
Naga
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