These have been pretty trying days for some of the smartest people on the planet. Each morning, their hearts have been skipping a beat when the phone rings.
Every time they will have wondered if the caller has a Scandinavian accent and news that they’ve won the ultimate accolade in academia, the Nobel Prize.
For some, the waiting will have be especially difficult, as they’d already been singled out as likely winners by a company that claims to be able to track academic brilliance by computer analysis.
Since 2002, Thomson Reuters has been building up a list – perhaps that should be The List – of top brains with the best chances of winning the Nobel Prize.
And it’s had startling success. Up until last week it had correctly predicted the names of 27 Nobellists winning the prizes in physics, chemistry, medicine/physiology and economics.
Given that literally hundreds of academics have been contenders over this time, that’s a pretty impressive strike rate.
As of last week, it had become even more impressive, correctly predicting five more Nobellists, with the economics prize to be announced tomorrow [[Mon 14 Oct]].
Admittedly, two of the five – theoretical physicists Peter Higgs and François Englert, who independently predicted the eponymous particle discovered by the Large Hadron Collider last year – were shoo-ins. But the others would have had most science commentators reaching for Wikipedia in the hope of finding out something, anything about them.
So how do Thomson Reuters do it? Their success lies in analysis of that most precious of academic commodities, research citations.
Having one’s research papers cited by others has long been deemed a key metric of importance and influence in academia. And as a rule of thumb, the more influential one is – at least, in the fields of physics, chemistry, medicine and economics - the higher the chances of bagging a Nobel.
The list consists of so-called Citation Laureates – researchers who have written a substantial number of highly-cited papers over many years – which helps rule out the one-trick ponies and flashes-in-the-pan.
It’s an effective set of criteria: anyone appearing on the Thomson Reuters annual list has a roughly one in four chance of being among the winners of a Nobel.
But while vast numbers of citations and a Nobel Prize are generally reliable markers of great research, the reverse is far from true. Many academics have come to loathe the focus on citations, especially by university administrators, who increasingly use them to decide who gets hired and fired.
Academics see citations as a crude way of keeping score, and one that often says more about what issues are currently in vogue than in what is actually important.
This in turn can distort the research agenda, persuading young academics to chase topics currently in favour with journals rather than follow their instincts.
A classic example dates back to the era when Professors Englert and Higgs were working in particle physics, more than 50 years ago.
They were among the relatively small group of theorists trying to succeed where Einstein failed, and find a unified theory for the forces of nature.
This was widely regarded as hopeless, pretty much guaranteeing those who worked on it minimal citations.
Back then, it didn’t matter so much, and many of those involved in this “hopeless” quest were still active in 1971, when a huge theoretical breakthrough suddenly made the quest credible.
Within a few years, those once poorly-cited theorists were winning Nobel Prizes – and, as last week showed, they still are.
But there was a downside to these triumphs. They have led to the quest to succeed where Einstein failed dominating theoretical physics – and with it, the league tables of citations.
Yet many theorists now suspect the quest is an intellectual bandwagon that’s going round in circles.
Still, academics can hardly be blamed for being eager to jump aboard. After all, the depressing truth is that around 90 per cent of research papers are never cited at all. There is safety – and continued employment and funding – in bandwagons.
This, in turn, makes the focus on getting cited a potential threat to the march of science.
Nor is this a mere theoretical possibility. Take the case of the Swiss theorist Ernst Stueckelberg, the most brilliant scientist you have never heard of.
Born into a minor Swiss aristocratic family in 1905, Baron Ernst Carl Gerlach Stueckelberg studied physics in Basel and Munich before embarking on what should have been a standard academic career at various Swiss universities.
But from his late 20s, Stueckelberg began making a series of extraordinary advances in the field of sub-atomic particle physics.
The first centred on the nature of the so-called strong nuclear force, which binds together atomic nuclei.
Stueckelberg showed that the force could be explained in terms of a “carrier particle” which transmitted forces from place to place.
It was a radical idea, far removed from the vague force-field ideas that had been circulating for years.
Unfortunately, Stueckelberg was talked out of publishing by a colleague – only to see it discovered independently shortly afterwards by another theorist, Hideki Yukawa in Japan – who duly won the 1949 Nobel Prize for physics.
Stueckelberg was no one-trick pony, however. Around the same time, he set about tackling fearsome problems that plagued the theory of how electrons interact with light.
He succeeded in solving the problems, only to make a catastrophic professional blunder: he wrote up his work using a strange notation, and published in French in an obscure Swiss journal.
Once again, his work was ignored, and he had to endure seeing others solve the same problem and win another clutch of Nobel Prizes.
Undaunted, Stueckelberg made yet another seminal advance in the 1950s by discovering the so-called renormalisation group, a set of mathematical tricks that has since proved useful throughout theoretical physics.
But once again, he refused to play the academic game, published in an obscure journal – and again watched others pick up Nobel Prizes for the same idea.
Stueckelberg himself seemed quite unconcerned by all this. Just before his death in 1984, he told two science historians that he knew he was his own worst enemy when playing the game of science.
Today, winning that game is in danger of becoming more important to some scientists than science itself.
O Robert Matthews is visiting reader in science at Aston University, Birmingham, England
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
MATCH INFO
Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)
Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm
The Old Slave and the Mastiff
Patrick Chamoiseau
Translated from the French and Creole by Linda Coverdale
Slow loris biog
From: Lonely Loris is a Sunda slow loris, one of nine species of the animal native to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore
Status: Critically endangered, and listed as vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature red list due to growing demand in the global exotic pet trade. It is one of the most popular primate species found at Indonesian pet markets
Likes: Sleeping, which they do for up to 18 hours a day. When they are awake, they like to eat fruit, insects, small birds and reptiles and some types of vegetation
Dislikes: Sunlight. Being a nocturnal animal, the slow loris wakes around sunset and is active throughout the night
Superpowers: His dangerous elbows. The slow loris’s doe eyes may make it look cute, but it is also deadly. The only known venomous primate, it hisses and clasps its paws and can produce a venom from its elbow that can cause anaphylactic shock and even death in humans
BIG SPENDERS
Premier League clubs spent £230 million (Dh1.15 billion) on January transfers, the second-highest total for the mid-season window, the Sports Business Group at Deloitte said in a report.
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Transmission: six-speed manual
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 3.9 seconds
Price: Dh230,000
On sale: now
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Teachers' pay - what you need to know
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Know your camel milk:
Flavour: Similar to goat’s milk, although less pungent. Vaguely sweet with a subtle, salty aftertaste.
Texture: Smooth and creamy, with a slightly thinner consistency than cow’s milk.
Use it: In your morning coffee, to add flavour to homemade ice cream and milk-heavy desserts, smoothies, spiced camel-milk hot chocolate.
Goes well with: chocolate and caramel, saffron, cardamom and cloves. Also works well with honey and dates.
More Iraq election coverage:
THE LOWDOWN
Romeo Akbar Walter
Rating: 2/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Robby Grewal
Cast: John Abraham, Mouni Roy, Jackie Shroff and Sikandar Kher
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Museum of the Future in numbers
- 78 metres is the height of the museum
- 30,000 square metres is its total area
- 17,000 square metres is the length of the stainless steel facade
- 14 kilometres is the length of LED lights used on the facade
- 1,024 individual pieces make up the exterior
- 7 floors in all, with one for administrative offices
- 2,400 diagonally intersecting steel members frame the torus shape
- 100 species of trees and plants dot the gardens
- Dh145 is the price of a ticket
Match info
Uefa Nations League Group B:
England v Spain, Saturday, 11.45pm (UAE)
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
WORLD CUP SEMI-FINALS
England v New Zealand
(Saturday, 12pm UAE)
Wales v South Africa
(Sunday, 12pm, UAE)
