Existential crises, not curiosity, will force humans to become a multi-planetary species one day, experts told the two-day Dubai Future Forum.
A panel at the Museum of the Future addressed the way ahead for the space industry.
Billionaire Elon Musk has plans to colonise Mars and hopes to send a million people there by 2050.
Space agencies such as Nasa have plans to send astronauts to Mars, while the UAE set a goal of building a settlement there by 2117.
But a panellist at the event predicted that the kind of investment that is needed to colonise Mars would only come when humans on Earth face an existential crisis.
It will be war, disease, climate or famine. These existential threats are what I think would accelerate us to look to live on another planet
Mark Beer of Asgardia
Mark Beer, of Asgardia, an international project that is trying to set up a space nation, said environmental and health crises could drive that transition.
“Elon Musk thinks it's going to be a billion people living on Mars by the end of the century but what will be the accelerator? What will drive this transition to be living on Mars?” he said.
“Unfortunately, I predict it to be an existential event. It will not happen organically.
“It will be war, disease, climate or famine. These existential threats are what I think would force us to look at living on another planet.”
Astrophysicists have often criticised Mr Musk’s plans for Mars, saying that the planet has a hostile environment.
Terraforming — a process that changes a planet's conditions so it becomes habitable — has been suggested as a solution to making the Red Planet suitable for humans, but that could take millions of years.
There have also been calls for billionaires to invest in healing Earth from climate change instead of spending billions on trying to colonise other planets.
“What we're hearing is the challenge of cost — the cost of moving organic matter into another planet or transporting the infrastructure that we can build on another planet,” Mr Beer said.
“If we look back in history, at the point of which the maximum investment has been made financially in changing the world, it tends to come out of existential threats.
“The Second World War gave us the first electric computer … it gave us a 125,000-person nuclear programme to create an atom bomb,” he said.
“And that's why I think for space, it will not come out of that organic discussion, but the need.”
However, there are still many challenges that need to be addressed before humans can colonise Mars, including deadly radiation, cold and an unbreathable atmosphere.
Diego Urbina, team lead of future projects and exploration at a company called Space Application Services, said “we’re on the right track” for achieving those goals.
“I believe we’re taking the right steps — we’re lowering the cost of access to space with reusable rockets, which is quite important,” he said.
“And we're also creating this space economy that will make it more feasible to have these future space settlements. So I think we're on the right track, but it’ll take few decades to be able to get there.”
He said a lot more investment is needed to further accelerate the process.
The Dubai Future Forum concludes on Wednesday.
Dubai Future Forum 2022 - in pictures
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
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Company Profile
Name: JustClean
Based: Kuwait with offices in other GCC countries
Launch year: 2016
Number of employees: 130
Sector: online laundry service
Funding: $12.9m from Kuwait-based Faith Capital Holding
The five pillars of Islam
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The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
The biog
Job: Fitness entrepreneur, body-builder and trainer
Favourite superhero: Batman
Favourite quote: We must become the change we want to see, by Mahatma Gandhi.
Favourite car: Lamborghini
The Beach Bum
Director: Harmony Korine
Stars: Matthew McConaughey, Isla Fisher, Snoop Dogg
Two stars
