NEW YORI // The failure of international diplomacy in the Syrian crisis after Russian and Chinese vetoes last week highlighted a weakness in the United Nations that has thrown into doubt its future role in Syria.
Reminiscent of the heated rhetoric of the Cold War in the 1960s, the East-West diplomatic clash flared about the same time as street battles in Damascus did. But the vetoes made it clear the conflict will be decided in neighbourhoods of the Syrian capital, rather than in the corridors of the UN.
The Cold War was marked by conflict and paralysis in the Security Council as both sides vetoed each other on a variety of issues.
The 1990 fall of the Soviet Union ushered in an era of cooperation at the UN; one that frayed over the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and has become open confrontation over Syria.
"Those who believed that we were somehow past those days [of the Cold War] were living in a world that didn't actually exist," said George Lopez, a political scientist at the University of Notre Dame in the US.
"The Arab Spring is clearly the dividing line for the Russians, since [President Vladimir] Putin facing 10,000 people lined up in his own central squares questioning his legitimacy hits home a lot clearer than whether Russia should pass sanctions on somewhere like Ivory Coast."
Africa is no longer in contention the way it was during the Cold War, but Syria still lies at the crux of a geopolitical battle between the West, with its Arabian Gulf partners, and Russia.
Moscow blames its rivals for using militant Islamists to encroach on its sphere of influence in central Asia and the Middle East, and remove its allies from power, analysts said.
Vitaly Churkin, the Russian ambassador to the UN, blasted the West for having "fanned the flames of extremists and terrorist groups" in pursuit of its own designs.
Mr Churkin called the West hypocritical for engaging in "biased rhetoric without saying anything about their real interests in Syria", which he said were "all about Iran".
"Unexpected changes brought about by the invasion of Iraq", which strengthened Iran, required the West to weaken Tehran by challenging its ally in Syria, he said.
Mr Churkin said Moscow could "not accept the pressure of sanctions … [or] external military involvement in Syrian affairs".
Russia had launched diplomatic action, he said, but for the West, "would a Tomahawk cruise missile on the presidential palace in Damascus constitute action?"
The Chinese ambassador Li Baodong called the West rigid and arrogant for backing an uneven resolution singling out the Syrian government that would derail … a political settlement, and aggravate the turmoil, causing it to spill over to other countries in the region.
Western envoys pushed back. Susan Rice, the US ambassador, said Russia's fear of military intervention was "paranoid and disingenuous". Ms Rice told the council that if the resolution had passed it would in "no way authorise or pave the way for foreign military intervention".
Mark Lyall Grant, the UK ambassador, called Moscow irrational for arguing the resolution would have led to western military action.
"They have chosen to put their national interests ahead of the lives of millions of Syrians," Mr Grant said.
The core weakness of the UN is the competing interests of 192 member nations that results in agreements often so compromised that they appear spineless. In the Security Council it takes only one of the five permanent members with the power of veto to stop any agreement at all.
It was the third time Russia and China have vetoed resolutions aimed at pressuring the Syrian president, Bashar Al Assad, to leave power.
The latest would have threatened financial and travel sanctions against Syrian leaders if they did not withdraw their troops and heavy weapons from populated areas within 10 days. With battles raging in the capital, that was not likely to have happened.
The latest Security Council paralysis puts into question a UN role in Syria. The peace plan by the joint UN-Arab League envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan, appears to be dead. And without East-West consensus, fresh multilateral initiatives or UN activity in a post-Assad Syria is uncertain.
The Security Council has extended its 300-man unarmed observer mission for a final 30 days unless the fighting ends before that. The observers could then become the embryo of a post-conflict UN mission, if East and West can agree.
"Although Kofi Annan has made the best out of a weak hand that he was played and he's really stayed in the game longer than many thought, events have so far outstripped now what the Security Council can do," said Mr Lopez.
The UN could provide a stabilisation force, and eventually election monitors and constitutional experts if Mr Al Assad were overthrown and chaos ensued, he said. But he thinks Russia may well block that, too.
"They would prefer anarchy with limits to attempts by the UN to engage in missions that they know will fail," Mr Lopez said. "They can blame the anarchy on the quick trigger of the West continuing to back movements that have no ability to actually take over government and rule."
He said the opposition lacked a figure or institutions to bring confidence that factional fighting would not erupt if Mr Al Assad were ousted.
"Maybe it's next week or maybe it's three months from now, but we are all going to wake up and find there is no Assad in charge," he said. "What is the Russian position going to be then?"
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
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Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
Profile of MoneyFellows
Founder: Ahmed Wadi
Launched: 2016
Employees: 76
Financing stage: Series A ($4 million)
Investors: Partech, Sawari Ventures, 500 Startups, Dubai Angel Investors, Phoenician Fund
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
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Anxiety and work stress major factors
Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.
A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.
Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Five expert hiking tips
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
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