Greece may need two elections this summer to choose its next government thanks to rancour between two potential coalition partners and a likely failure of any single party to win a governing majority.
The country is used to going through the electoral process at frequent intervals in its recent, turbulent history. It had two elections in 2012 and 2015, while no government between 2009 and 2019 saw out its full four-year term. This turmoil was the by-product of a devastating economic crisis that led to Greece receiving almost €300 billion ($326.27 billion) in loans via three EU-IMF bailout programmes that involved successive administrations in Athens performing drastic fiscal adjustments.
During that period, the Greek economy contracted by around a quarter and the unemployment rate rose above 25 per cent. This, in turn, triggered social upheaval, the degradation of public services and political instability. However, most of this is in the past. While the economic and social legacies of Greece’s long crisis have not been completely flushed out of the system, the country is in a much healthier state as it gears up for elections on Sunday.
In 2019, the centre-right New Democracy party returned to power with support of almost 40 per cent of the electorate. It was tasked with overseeing the start of the transition to a new era for the country. New Democracy’s leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the son of a former Greek prime minister, positioned himself as a political liberal. He pledged tax cuts, business-friendly reforms aimed at boosting investment and a more modern public administration. Mr Mitsotakis has largely delivered on these promises: a range of taxes have been brought down, foreign direct investment has risen to record levels and digital services are being used more widely in the Greek bureaucracy.
The government argues that these policies have been vital in delivering growth, which reached 5.9 per cent in 2022, despite the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, the energy crisis and rising inflation. There have been some flagship investments announced by global giants like Microsoft and Pfizer. Mr Mitsotakis has also raised the minimum wage twice this year, taking it to a pre-crisis level of €780 per month.
Based on this alone, one might think that the Greek leader and his party should be cruising to re-election, but that is not exactly the case. For each of the successes that New Democracy holds up as a sign of its good stewardship over the past four years, there is a counterpoint. There are, for instance, questions about how tangible and sustainable Greece’s economic growth is. While there has been a boom in Greek exports over the past few years, this has been overshadowed by a much bigger rise in imports, leading to a current account deficit of just over €20 billion in 2022, almost €8 billion higher than a year earlier.
Also, a closer look at investments reveals that much of the FDI coming into Greece is directed towards real estate and tourism development, not greenfield schemes. Although unemployment has fallen, reaching 10.9 per cent in March – the lowest level since 2009 – salaries in Greece remain low and many of the jobs being created, particularly for young people, involve precarious or seasonal work for low wages, mostly in tourism and the food service sector.
Several crises over the past four years have exposed continuing problems with Greece’s public sector that the government has not been able to address. After navigating the first wave of Covid-19 in 2020 relatively well, Greece subsequently had one of the highest mortality rates in the EU, reflecting the poor state of its health service, particularly in non-urban areas. A deadly train crash at the end of February, when a passenger and freight train collided in central Greece, killing 57 people, also put the government’s reform drive under scrutiny as an incomplete signalling installation, lack of railway staff and poor training were blamed for the accident.
It is this fear of plunging back into uncertainty, which Greeks paid such a high price for in recent years, that may ultimately decide the result of the coming elections
The ruling party’s re-election has also been put in some doubt because of repeated criticism about the quality of democracy in Greece. For the last two years, Greece has scored the lowest ranking in the EU for press freedom, according to the annual index compiled by Reporters Without Borders (RSF).
The government has also become embroiled in a wiretapping scandal. Reports have identified the alleged widespread use of Predator spyware to illegally target politicians, journalists, businessmen and other figures in Greece. It has been revealed that some of the targets were also legally monitored by the National Intelligence Service (EYP). Mr Mitsotakis has denied that Greek authorities used spyware. However, one of the surveillance operations conducted by EYP could yet have an impact on these elections.
Last year, it was revealed that Nikos Androulakis the leader of the centre-left Pasok party, which is polling third ahead of Sunday’s vote, was bugged by Greece’s secret services, with a prosecutor’s approval. Mr Androulakis claims that the government has blocked a proper parliamentary investigation into the surveillance issue and that the judiciary is delaying its probe.
Until the wiretapping was revealed, Mr Androulakis was seen as a potential coalition partner for Mr Mitsotakis as the coming elections will be held under a proportional representation system, which means the winning party or combination of parties will need upwards of 45 per cent of the vote to form a government. No single party is anywhere near this. New Democracy is polling at about 35 per cent, Syriza close to 30 per cent and Pasok about 10 per cent.
Ill feeling has developed between Mr Androulakis and Mr Mitsotakis, making it doubtful that they will be able to co-operate after May 21. It is more likely that the Prime Minister will opt for a second round of elections, which will be held under a different electoral system that awards a bonus of up to 50 seats to the winning party, making it easier to reach the majority of 151 MPs in the Greek parliament. A majority in the second vote could be clinched with less than 38 per cent of the vote, which could be within New Democracy’s reach.
Should he fall short, Mr Mitsotakis might seek to tempt some opposition MPs to cross the aisle. If he needs more than a handful of MPs, though, he might have to mend his relationship with Mr Androulakis and seek an alliance with Pasok.
The only potential obstacle to Mr Mitsotakis’s return to power is if left-wing Syriza upsets the odds and either comes first or gets enough seats to give it a chance to form a coalition with other opposition parties, such as Pasok. The chances of this happening appear slim as the leftists and their leader, former prime minister Alexis Tsipras, are still carrying some of the baggage of 2015, when they came to power and engaged in haphazard negotiations with the eurozone over a new bailout that inflicted considerable economic damage and almost forced Greece out of the euro.
During the current campaign, Syriza has tried to convince the Greek public that it is wiser now. But opinion polls suggest that in almost all policy areas, especially the economy and foreign policy, New Democracy and Mr Mitsotakis elicit much greater trust than the leftists. The opposition party has also found itself on the defensive about the cost of its economic proposals, which the government claims will result in Greece needing a new bailout.
It is this fear of plunging back into uncertainty, which Greeks paid such a high price for in recent years, that may ultimately decide the result of the coming elections. While the Greek public might have doubts about the success story presented by the current government, it seems to be even more sceptical about whether the opposition can offer a better alternative. This could secure Mr Mitsotakis’s re-election, even though it might come after a second vote later this summer, rather than on Sunday.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
How Alia's experiment will help humans get to Mars
Alia’s winning experiment examined how genes might change under the stresses caused by being in space, such as cosmic radiation and microgravity.
Her samples were placed in a machine on board the International Space Station. called a miniPCR thermal cycler, which can copy DNA multiple times.
After the samples were examined on return to Earth, scientists were able to successfully detect changes caused by being in space in the way DNA transmits instructions through proteins and other molecules in living organisms.
Although Alia’s samples were taken from nematode worms, the results have much bigger long term applications, especially for human space flight and long term missions, such as to Mars.
It also means that the first DNA experiments using human genomes can now be carried out on the ISS.
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
Ukraine%20exports
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Profile of Whizkey
Date founded: 04 November 2017
Founders: Abdulaziz AlBlooshi and Harsh Hirani
Based: Dubai, UAE
Number of employees: 10
Sector: AI, software
Cashflow: Dh2.5 Million
Funding stage: Series A
ILT20%20UAE%20stars
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Bombshell
Director: Jay Roach
Stars: Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron, Margot Robbie
Four out of five stars
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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F1 drivers' standings
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes 281
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 247
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes 222
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull 177
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 138
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull 93
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 86
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 56
Apple's%20Lockdown%20Mode%20at%20a%20glance
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If you go
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
Inside%20Out%202
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EKelsey%20Mann%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%C2%A0Amy%20Poehler%2C%20Maya%20Hawke%2C%20Ayo%20Edebiri%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Teams
Punjabi Legends Owners: Inzamam-ul-Haq and Intizar-ul-Haq; Key player: Misbah-ul-Haq
Pakhtoons Owners: Habib Khan and Tajuddin Khan; Key player: Shahid Afridi
Maratha Arabians Owners: Sohail Khan, Ali Tumbi, Parvez Khan; Key player: Virender Sehwag
Bangla Tigers Owners: Shirajuddin Alam, Yasin Choudhary, Neelesh Bhatnager, Anis and Rizwan Sajan; Key player: TBC
Colombo Lions Owners: Sri Lanka Cricket; Key player: TBC
Kerala Kings Owners: Hussain Adam Ali and Shafi Ul Mulk; Key player: Eoin Morgan
Venue Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Format 10 overs per side, matches last for 90 minutes
Timeline October 25: Around 120 players to be entered into a draft, to be held in Dubai; December 21: Matches start; December 24: Finals
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SCORES
Multiply Titans 81-2 in 12.1 overs
(Tony de Zorzi, 34)
bt Auckland Aces 80 all out in 16 overs
(Shawn von Borg 4-15, Alfred Mothoa 2-11, Tshepo Moreki 2-16).
ICC Awards for 2021
MEN
Cricketer of the Year – Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Mohammad Rizwan (Pakistan)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Babar Azam (Pakistan)
Test Cricketer of the Year – Joe Root (England)
WOMEN
Cricketer of the Year – Smriti Mandhana (India)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Lizelle Lee (South Africa)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Tammy Beaumont (England)
Specs
Price, base: Dhs850,000
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 591bhp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.3L / 100km
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Miguel Cotto world titles:
WBO Light Welterweight champion - 2004-06
WBA Welterweight champion – 2006-08
WBO Welterweight champion – Feb 2009-Nov 2009
WBA Light Middleweight champion – 2010-12
WBC Middleweight champion – 2014-15
WBO Light Middleweight champion – Aug 2017-Dec 2017
The Details
Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5
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