Little more than a decade ago, Sir John Beddington, a professor of applied population biology, said that the world was facing “the perfect storm”.
He said increasing demand for food, energy and water could leave the planet facing acute shortages of all three by the year 2030, sparking conflict and unrest.
While the timetable for when the planet – and humanity – is likely to suffer such upheavals may have changed, the issues as a whole appear no less pressing today.
The impact of climate change on human health is already being felt, directly and indirectly
Dr Raya Muttarak,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria
With the world’s population growing by about 80 million a year, the 7.7 billion people on Earth is likely to be closer to 10 billion by 2050, when demand for food could be 70 per cent higher than it was in 2014.
By 2100, the world’s population is expected to be about 11 billion, according to a UN report, although by then numbers will, according to forecasts, have plateaued.
Global temperatures, meanwhile, are rising by an average of 0.18 °C per decade, affecting crop yields at just the time when food needs are growing.
Global population increase: past, present and future
Dr Raya Muttarak, programme director of the Population and Just Societies Programme at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, says that agriculture in arid areas, and even parts of Europe, could be negatively affected. Some regions may benefit – although the overall effect is not likely to be positive.
“There are areas of the world that could benefit from a longer and warmer growing season due to climate change, such as the colder climate [areas] – northern Europe and some parts of Russia, such as Siberia,” she says.
Superimposed on the incremental effects of temperature increases are extreme events such as droughts, floods, fires and heatwaves, which are forecast to become more frequent as a result of climate change.
“We’re not just talking about lowering yields, we’re talking about a complete loss of one year’s productivity, which can be devastating for communities that don’t have other options,” says Prof Peter Smith, science director of Scotland’s Climate Change Centre of Expertise and a professor in plant and soil science at the University of Aberdeen.
The various factors at play will interact in unpredictable ways. Dr Muttarak is currently investigating how climate change will affect population dynamics through its effect on fertility, mortality and migration.
Global surface temperature change 1880-2020
“The impact of climate change on human health is already being felt, directly and indirectly,” she says. “The growing evidence does suggest climate change will affect our health and, to a certain extent, mortality.”
Migration will be affected, although climate change’s effects will not be straightforward. Dr Muttarak says it will increase movements of people under some circumstances – such as when they have the resources to move – while reducing it in others.
Against such a complex backdrop, it is no surprise that researchers take different views on how patterns of food scarcity will play out.
"[There are] those who are arguing that the population growth is what’s going to cause the demise of a lot of society because of food availability,” says Prof Terry Dawson, a professor of global environmental change at King’s College London.
“There’s another camp who says there’s plenty of food, it’s the inequality that is the problem.”
While models vary in their predictions, work by Prof Dawson, Prof Smith and colleagues indicates that in the decades to come, population growth may play a greater role than climate change in creating food shortages. Their analysis indicates that climate change may cause about 20 per cent of any increases in undernourishment.
They found that, if nothing is done, there will be “a considerable increase in the number of countries with a very high prevalence of undernourishment” by 2050.
There are, however, measures such as improvements to how food is produced, and the strengthening of trade and aid links, that could mitigate these effects.
Nowhere will these be more important than in Africa.
Number of undernourished worldwide, in Africa and its sub-regions 2000-2019 (million)
The population of sub-Saharan Africa is growing by 2.7 per cent a year, a rate more than twice that of South Asia and three times that of Latin America. The continent’s population of more than 1.2 billion is predicted by a UN report to reach about 2.5 billion by 2050.
The youthfulness of Africa’s population means that, even if birth rates fall, populations will continue to increase for decades.
As they are, less-developed sub-Saharan African countries will have “the least economic capacity and elasticity” to deal with the challenges posed by climate change and population growth, Prof Smith says.
“Some of the famines that we’ve seen over the last 20 or 30 years could become more frequent unless we address the inequalities rapidly,” he says. But Africa has great opportunities to improve its agricultural output to feed its growing numbers.
“Africa has a huge yield gap in the amount of crops produced per hectare compared with the rest of the world,” Prof Dawson says.
“If the technology was there, they could probably get a six-fold increase in the number of tonnes of food produced per hectare relative to Europe. It just shows there are funds needed to buy fertilisers, to support improved irrigation systems ... a lot of Africa is still rain-fed crop production.”
China is an example of how countries can increase their food production, with the country having achieved what has been described as an “agricultural miracle” in growing enough food for its 1.4 billion people.
Hunger and food security in China
Yet the world’s most populous nation also offers cautionary lessons, because high levels of pollution and greenhouse gas emissions have resulted from its heavy use of nitrogen fertilisers.
Economic development is seen as key if the poorest parts of Africa and other regions of the world are to cope with the looming challenges.
Nations, Prof Dawson says, have to become “plugged into the global economy”. As an example, he cites Kenya and its cut-flowers sector, which is the country’s second-largest exporter, employing more than 100,000 people.
"People would argue that’s not a good use of land for food but it creates an economy, which means they can afford to import staple foods,” Prof Dawson says.
Developed nations, through aid, can assist by, for example, promoting education, especially for women and girls, because this can contribute to fertility reduction and makes population growth more manageable.
"The best thing we can do in the developed world is to provide aid and support and capacity building to help them live where they are rather than to rely on others for their living and continued survival,” Prof Smith says.
Greenhouse gas emissions per kilogram of food product (kgCO2eq)
One concern is that as countries become wealthier, meat and dairy consumption goes up. Prof Smith says that consuming animal products requires 10 to 100 times as much land as eating plant-based foods does, and causes carbon emissions to increase by a similar factor.
This link between wealth and the consumption of animal products must, he says, be broken. This is something he says needs to “start with the industrialised countries”.
“We can comfortably feed 12 billion people with less pressure on the land if we significantly cut livestock and dairy consumption,” he says.
Results
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Specs%3A%202024%20McLaren%20Artura%20Spider
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The Year Earth Changed
Directed by:Tom Beard
Narrated by: Sir David Attenborough
Stars: 4
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer
Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000
Engine 3.6L V6
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm
Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km
The figures behind the event
1) More than 300 in-house cleaning crew
2) 165 staff assigned to sanitise public areas throughout the show
3) 1,000 social distancing stickers
4) 809 hand sanitiser dispensers placed throughout the venue
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar
Director: Neeraj Pandey
Rating: 2.5/5
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Saturday
West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur (3.30pm)
Burnley v Huddersfield Town (7pm)
Everton v Bournemouth (7pm)
Manchester City v Crystal Palace (7pm)
Southampton v Manchester United (7pm)
Stoke City v Chelsea (7pm)
Swansea City v Watford (7pm)
Leicester City v Liverpool (8.30pm)
Sunday
Brighton and Hove Albion v Newcastle United (7pm)
Monday
Arsenal v West Bromwich Albion (11pm)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Awar Qalb
Director: Jamal Salem
Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman
Two stars
Korean Film Festival 2019 line-up
Innocent Witness, June 26 at 7pm
On Your Wedding Day, June 27 at 7pm
The Great Battle, June 27 at 9pm
The Witch: Part 1. The Subversion, June 28 at 4pm
Romang, June 28 at 6pm
Mal Mo E: The Secret Mission, June 28 at 8pm
Underdog, June 29 at 2pm
Nearby Sky, June 29 at 4pm
A Resistance, June 29 at 6pm
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE's role in anti-extremism recognised
General John Allen, President of the Brookings Institution research group, commended the role the UAE has played in the fight against terrorism and violent extremism.
He told a Globsec debate of the UAE’s "hugely outsized" role in the fight against Isis.
"It’s trite these days to say that any country punches above its weight, but in every possible way the Emirates did, both militarily, and very importantly, the UAE was extraordinarily helpful on getting to the issue of violent extremism," he said.
He also noted the impact that Hedayah, among others in the UAE, has played in addressing violent extremism.
BRIEF SCORES
England 228-7, 50 overs
N Sciver 51; J Goswami 3-23
India 219, 48.4 overs
P Raut 86, H Kaur 51; A Shrubsole 6-46
England won by nine runs
Shooting Ghosts: A U.S. Marine, a Combat Photographer, and Their Journey Back from War by Thomas J. Brennan and Finbarr O’Reilly
Results
2pm: Al Sahel Contracting Company – Maiden (PA) Dh50,000 (Dirt) 1,200m; Winner: AF Mutakafel, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
2.30pm: Dubai Real Estate Centre – Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: El Baareq, Antonio Fresu, Rashed Bouresly
3pm: Shadwell – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,950m; Winner: Lost Eden, Andrea Atzeni, Doug Watson
3.30pm: Keeneland – Handicap (TB) Dh84,000 (D) 1,000m; Winner: Alkaraama, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi
4pm: Keeneland – Handicap (TB) Dh76,000 (D) 1,800m; Winner: Lady Snazz, Saif Al Balushi, Bhupat Seemar
4.30pm: Hive – Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
5pm: Dubai Real Estate Centre – (TB) Handicap Dh64,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Lahmoom, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
Company%20Profile
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Directed by Sam Mendes
Starring Dean-Charles Chapman, George MacKay, Daniel Mays
4.5/5
