When President Joe Biden called on policymakers to “learn from our mistakes” after the fall of Kabul and promised an “end to forever wars”, he captured a strong desire among many for the US to adopt a backseat role in matters of foreign intervention.
Denise Natali, acting director of the US Institute for National Strategic Studies told a panel of regional experts on Middle East policy that Americans had changed.
“We now have domestic concerns that we're focusing on and we do not have the domestic support for engagement today as we did 20 years ago,” she said.
"So where we had the war on terror and large levels of engagement, we have now calls for greater restraint."
The approaching 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks has seen policymakers and analysts assessing the impact the events have had on the world.
In the Middle East, the shockwaves from 9/11 and America’s ensuing “war on terror” have reverberated in the two decades since, but the discussion hosted by think-tank Chatham House also heard that a more significant anniversary was that of the first Iraq war.
“I think that was more important in terms of world historical events than 9/11 itself,” said Gilbert Achcar, professor of Development Studies and International Relations at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London.
"Of course, 9/11 was very effective but the war on Iraq of 1991 was the first major war waged by the United States since Vietnam and that large scale war was really a defining moment for the Middle East and for the global world."
Iraq, Prof Achcar said, was an opportunity for the US to showcase the massive arsenal it had accumulated under Ronald Reagan and to cement its global dominance in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse.
That war, and the 12 years of sanctions against the country that followed, decimated Iraq to such a degree that the UN estimated more than one million people died as a direct result.
Prof Achcar believes Washington has reached a turning point comparable with Al Qaeda's shift from fighting the Soviet Union in Afghanistan to fighting the US - when the seeds of the largest terrorist attacks on American soil were sown.
“But instead of looking at 9/11 as the blowback of this terrible moment, what you had is an administration full of neoconservatives, and other such people with a lot of hubris, believing that the time had come to consolidate the project for next American century.”
The George W Bush Administration’s Global War on Terrorism campaign began with American troops entering Afghanistan - and subsequently Iraq – and has ended in spectacular failure twenty years later with the US leaving the country to Taliban rule.
In the intervening years, four successive US presidents continued with vast military operations that were often hawked as a noble and necessary way to spread democracy.
“After 9/11 a lot of the intervention in the region...came from this idea that failed states are a direct security threat to the US. Because in Afghanistan, for example, they facilitated a group like Al Qaeda,” said Renad Mansour, Senior Fellow Research at Chatham House.
“But what you see is a ‘rebuilding’ with a fundamental misunderstanding of what the state looks like in the country and what the realities are with different groups.”
For Ms Natali, the failures in Afghanistan and Iraq are what have led to a “fundamentally different way” of engaging in the region.
“I would not expect the large scale troop deployments that occurred in the past to continue in the near future, with a much more focused engagement, on counterterrorism and ways to do this more efficiently.”
The calls from “foreign policy elites” for continued engagement are being increasingly silenced by a domestic population who aren’t interested.
No longer reliant on oil from the Middle East, the US has little economic interest in being as militarily active on the ground. The pandemic, rising populism, and global trade are all more pressing concerns.
That’s not, the panel agreed, a call for complete isolationism.
The degree of US engagement, Ms Natali said, will live on a “spectrum” that’s primarily focused on protecting national security. However, many in the region already find the methods and targets of America’s engagement problematic.
Last month a US drone strike aimed at a vehicle carrying suspected suicide bombers in Kabul killed ten civilians, including several children.
“Joe Biden is not seeing how much the use of drones by the United States has been a source of resentment against it globally,” said Prof Achcar.
Since 2010, the US carried out over 14,000 drone strikes and other covert operations in several countries in Central Asia and the Middle East, resulting in several thousand civilian casualties.
“That's what Western countries should understand that. That doesn't mean that you just turn into full isolationism. Indeed, where there are needs to support forces that are just… that's something that can be considered but not in the way this has been done that the post 911 wars which were a terrible thing.”
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Heavily-sugared soft drinks slip through the tax net
Some popular drinks with high levels of sugar and caffeine have slipped through the fizz drink tax loophole, as they are not carbonated or classed as an energy drink.
Arizona Iced Tea with lemon is one of those beverages, with one 240 millilitre serving offering up 23 grams of sugar - about six teaspoons.
A 680ml can of Arizona Iced Tea costs just Dh6.
Most sports drinks sold in supermarkets were found to contain, on average, five teaspoons of sugar in a 500ml bottle.
