Boris Johnson’s political career has been defined as one that defies gravity, with the normal rules not applying to him.
Can the British prime minister beat the odds and survive what would normally prove a politically mortal wound of 148 Conservative colleagues having no confidence in his leadership?
The coming days and weeks will be critical to whether he will cheat political death and recover. On Tuesday, he gathered his Cabinet together to set out how he planned to secure his leadership.
“If anyone can bounce back and show resilience, it’s Boris Johnson,” said his loyal Welsh Secretary, Simon Hart.
The resilience of Mr Johnson’s 20 or so key Cabinet ministers is vital. So far, like Mr Hart, they have remained united in support in the knowledge that their careers are now thoroughly tied to the prime minister’s.
With his Cabinet intact, Mr Johnson could then face down his rebellious MPs and with the passage of time put the Partygate scandal behind him.
On Tuesday morning, in the hangover from the torrid day of the confidence vote, there was a degree of silence among the rebels and critics. Some analysts suggested it was an “omerta”, giving Cabinet ministers space to decide whether senior figures should enter Downing Street to tell Mr Johnson his time was up.
Even then it would not be beyond his ability to stare down the approach. But, having seen him at close quarters going in to vote on Monday night, looking weary and muttering under his breath, it felt that even he was a man approaching his limits.
Those limits will be tested again on Wednesday at Prime Minister’s Questions when his greatest concern will be from those MPs sitting on benches behind, rather than the Labour opposition in front.
Will a series of Tory MPs stand and publicly demand his resignation? Will it be a dramatic moment for a minister such as Penny Mordaunt to announce her resignation and move to the back benches?
If Mr Johnson survives this week, on June 23 is another poll — two by-elections in Wakefield, and Tiverton and Honiton — which are likely to be heavy defeats for the Tories.
“If we don’t see genuine change reflected in the polls, then the storm clouds will gather again,” warned leading rebel MP Tobias Ellwood.
But Mr Johnson could brazen that out and limp on, waiting for Parliament's summer break, which starts next month.
The Conservative election rules state that a confidence vote cannot take place again for another 12 months, technically keeping Mr Johnson in post until June 2023. But it has been suggested that these rules could be “changed in an afternoon” if the unrest grows.
However, it is the disquiet among the British public that will be likely to count the most. They can take a lot from politicians but blatant hypocrisy, going against their sense of “fair play” is widely regarded as intolerable.
Hence the slump in Mr Johnson’s ratings since it was disclosed that while the rest of the country stayed alone locked in their homes during the pandemic, boozy parties at Downing Street were the norm.
A recent poll showed 59 per cent wanted him out of office, the Conservatives trail Labour by seven points and at the jubilee celebrations on Friday Mr Johnson was booed outside St Paul’s Cathedral.
It might then dawn on those 211 MPs who voted their confidence in Mr Johnson’s leadership on Monday that the longer he remains in office, the greater the Conservative brand will be tarnished.
Or it might be that gravity again fails to apply to Boris Johnson, that he defies the doomsayers, thrives and survives.
Abdul Jabar Qahraman was meeting supporters in his campaign office in the southern Afghan province of Helmand when a bomb hidden under a sofa exploded on Wednesday.
The blast in the provincial capital Lashkar Gah killed the Afghan election candidate and at least another three people, Interior Minister Wais Ahmad Barmak told reporters. Another three were wounded, while three suspects were detained, he said.
The Taliban – which controls much of Helmand and has vowed to disrupt the October 20 parliamentary elections – claimed responsibility for the attack.
Mr Qahraman was at least the 10th candidate killed so far during the campaign season, and the second from Lashkar Gah this month. Another candidate, Saleh Mohammad Asikzai, was among eight people killed in a suicide attack last week. Most of the slain candidates were murdered in targeted assassinations, including Avtar Singh Khalsa, the first Afghan Sikh to run for the lower house of the parliament.
The same week the Taliban warned candidates to withdraw from the elections. On Wednesday the group issued fresh warnings, calling on educational workers to stop schools from being used as polling centres.
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Fixtures
Wednesday January 8 –Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 – Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 – UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
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PSG's line up
GK: Alphonse Areola (youth academy)
Defence - RB: Dani Alves (free transfer); CB: Marquinhos (€31.4 million); CB: Thiago Silva (€42m); LB: Layvin Kurzawa (€23m)
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Total cost: €440.4m (€620.4m if Mbappe makes permanent move)
Usain Bolt's time for the 100m at major championships
2008 Beijing Olympics 9.69 seconds
2009 Berlin World Championships 9.58
2011 Daegu World Championships Disqualified
2012 London Olympics 9.63
2013 Moscow World Championships 9.77
2015 Beijing World Championships 9.79
2016 Rio Olympics 9.81
2017 London World Championships 9.95
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
