Improving peace in the Middle East and North Africa may lead the region to rise in global rankings, potentially overtaking sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Russia in the next two to three years, experts have told The National.
The 2023 Global Peace Index, released on Wednesday, revealed Iceland as the world’s most peaceful country for the 15th consecutive year.
While the Mena region came last, dwindling conflict in certain countries may point to a slightly more optimistic future.
“Countries are realising the cost of conflict is just not worth it,” Steve Killilea, founder and executive chairman of the Institute for Economics and Peace, told The National ahead of the index release.
He added that he expected the Mena region to rise in the peace rankings and replace sub-Saharan Africa and other regions in the coming years, as terrorism gains a foothold in the Sahel.
"When we’re looking at the average regional score now, whereas the Middle East was way behind other regions, it’s fast approaching regions such as South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Russia and Eurasia."
"So, if improvements it's had in the last three years keep up, then in that case it will probably end up more peaceful than a couple of other regions. It’s not that far off a number of them now."
The Middle East recorded the biggest improvement in peacefulness in 2022 as well as improvement in regional ties, with the Iran-Saudi rapprochement and stable relations between Qatar and other Gulf states cited as signs of positive change.
Ongoing conflict also declined and was the primary reason for improvement, the report said.
Two countries – Libya and Oman – both came within the top five improvers this year, with the former raising its overall score by more than 7 per cent. Oman has no active conflict, but the index focuses on a wide range of factors that influence a country's stability – or lack thereof.
Qatar remains the most peaceful country in the region, a position it has held since the index began in 2008, and is the only Mena country in the top 25 globally.
Following the defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, the global focus of terrorism has now shifted to areas of Africa, threatening to send its hopes for peace plummeting.
“Conflict and terrorism in the Middle East were key drivers of the global deterioration in peacefulness until 2015, but in the past eight years conflicts in other regions have underpinned the global decline in peacefulness,” the institute said.
The “epicentre” of terrorism has now shifted from Mena to sub-Saharan Africa, according to the institute, echoing widespread warnings of a rise in ISIS activity in Central Africa.
Mali and the Central African Republic were ranked the 11th and 12th least peaceful countries in this year's index, respectively.
Conflict between the Malian government and extremist groups led to the largest regional drop in peace, it said, blaming government failure to keep territory from falling into the hands of militants.
Globally, Afghanistan “bore the brunt” of terrorism in recent years, it added – a situation now changed as the Taliban is no longer classed as a terrorist group.
Israel declining sharply
Despite regional improvements, Israel declined sharply in 2022, dropping eight places on the global index.
Palestine was ranked higher overall than Israel, mainly due to Israel’s hostile relations with neighbouring countries, said Mr Killilea.
The biggest factor in Israel’s decline was political instability, including the proposed judicial reforms which led to record protests across the country.
But conflict with the Palestinians – which reached its deadliest yet in 2022 – was also a major contributor, alongside tension with Iran.
That conflict shows no sign of abating, with deadly raids continuing in the occupied West Bank and last week’s drone strike in Jenin – the first instance of its kind in the region since 2006.
Israel's commitment to expanding Israeli settlements in the West Bank is also likely to further diminish hopes for peace.
Drone use on the rise
The use of drones is also on the rise and expected to increase further in the near future.
The number of armed groups using drones has increased by 50 per cent in the past five years, with around 30 different groups using unmanned aerial vehicles globally, Mr Killilea said.
The number of drone strikes has "risen dramatically" in recent years, he added, at a rate of 200 to 300 per cent.
"Drones are just a small part of what’s used in conflicts but we are seeing it increase quite strongly," he said, adding that "we will see more use particularly as drones become able to fly further".
Wednesday's report noted Turkey's role in particular, with Ankara described as a "drone superpower" for its exports – primarily destined for Ethiopia, according to Mr Killilea.
Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.
RESULTS
2pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (Dirt) 1,400m. Winner: Masaali, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).
2.30pm: Handicap Dh 76,000 (D) 1,400m. Winner: Almoreb, Dane O’Neill, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
3pm: Handicap Dh 64,000 (D) 1,200m. Winner: Imprison, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.
3.30pm: Shadwell Farm Conditions Dh 100,000 (D) 1,000m. Winner: Raahy, Adrie de Vries, Jaber Ramadhan.
4pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (D) 1,000m. Winner: Cross The Ocean, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
4.30pm: Handicap 64,000 (D) 1,950m. Winner: Sa’Ada, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash.
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
It's Monty Python's Crashing Rocket Circus
To the theme tune of the famous zany British comedy TV show, SpaceX has shown exactly what can go wrong when you try to land a rocket.
The two minute video posted on YouTube is a compilation of crashes and explosion as the company, created by billionaire Elon Musk, refined the technique of reusable space flight.
SpaceX is able to land its rockets on land once they have completed the first stage of their mission, and is able to resuse them multiple times - a first for space flight.
But as the video, How Not to Land an Orbital Rocket Booster, demonstrates, it was a case if you fail, try and try again.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Yuki Means Happiness
Alison Jean Lester
John Murray
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Alita: Battle Angel
Director: Robert Rodriguez
Stars: Rosa Salazar, Christoph Waltz, Keean Johnson
Four stars
Brief scores:
Manchester City 3
Aguero 1', 44', 61'
Arsenal 1
Koscielny 11'
Man of the match: Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
