For many observers of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, low-cost drones represent the terrifying future of war, where nothing is safe from all-seeing swarms of flying machines or underwater drones that can sink warships.
But defence industry and government experts tell The National that drones are the tip of the iceberg when it comes to how armies will fight in the future.
Analysts are hard at work trying to imagine how warfare might be conducted as far ahead as the 2040s, by rethinking everything from weapons to military doctrine.
“We're thinking about the 2040-plus threat environment. And we'll find the technologies and capabilities that are needed to be able to provide the necessary capability to meet those threats,” says John Stocker, who works on the Future Combat Air System, a next-generation fighter jet project known as the Tempest being developed by the UK's BAE Systems and partners in Italy, Sweden and Japan.
Drones will play a central role in future conflict – in the case of the Tempest they will be controlled by the jet acting as a kind of mothership.
The US, Nato and China are working not only on drones that are bigger, faster, smarter and more heavily armed than those seen today, but also on a series of military systems for land, sea and air that will work in tandem.
Each element in this new war will be a “system of systems”, part of a network assisted by artificial intelligence.
No one weapon – be it a type of drone, a stealth fighter or an unmanned tank – will be game-changing. The emphasis instead is on high-tech, instantaneous co-ordination on everything from alerting the network to new threats to flagging logistical problems as they happen.
AI will help sift through vast amounts of intelligence data sent from these drones, thousands of them, as well as from manned systems that have sensors to track targets across hundreds of kilometres.
In the West, this is sometimes called data-centric warfare, while China has a similar doctrine whose title has been translated as “intelligentised warfare”.
The Ku-band Radio Frequency System is a 360-degree radar that senses incoming drones, rockets, artillery and mortars. It can cue defensive weapons, and it can be set up within 30 minutes, either in a fixed location or on a vehicle. Photo: Raytheon
New technology such as quantum computing will be needed to make sense of so much data, which will be shared through encrypted communication channels.
Mr Stocker says systems like the Tempest could be upgraded by software downloads, like an iPhone, where operating systems would be compatible with many types of weapons, a concept known as the “combat cloud”.
William Nelson, deputy to the commanding general of the US Army Futures Command, a 17,000-strong branch of the US military focused on modernising the force for 2030 and beyond, told The National that planners needed to think “over the horizon”.
“Developing capabilities that are forward focused and designed to quickly and adaptively learn and change at the pace of an evolving battlefield is absolutely critical to future war-winning readiness,” he said.
Drones, and the buzz around them in defence circles, are just aspects of this.
“Understanding where unmanned aerial vehicle technology is headed drives an approach today that ensures we are prepared for a wide range of possible future threats,” Mr Nelson said.
Drones of mass destruction
The vision of long-range, autonomous fighter drones is a far cry from the armed quadcopters fielded by terrorist groups today, or even Iran’s most advanced explosive-filled drones like the Shahed 101, one of which is suspected to have been used by an Iraqi militia in the attack that killed three US soldiers at a base in Jordan last month.
The threat posed by low-cost drones has spurred a small industry dedicated to countering them, including innovations like lasers mounted on armoured vehicles and special radars with 360-degree coverage to detect the small, low-flying craft.
Fast forward to the 2040s, and the focus of planners looks rather different.
Drones will not only attack using explosives or scan battlefields for the enemy: they could also be used in swarms with electronic jamming equipment to overwhelm communications, something the US is also working on.
In the ocean, projects like the US's Ghost Fleet Overlord envision about 150 unmanned ships by the 2040s, and many smaller surface and underwater drones.
Another project, Golden Horde, is testing swarms of “thinking” bombs that can change targets after being released.
AI will help not only commanders to sift the information needed to co-ordinate attacks and prioritise threats and targets but it will assist pilots faced with a rapid flow of data to quickly make decisions.
A crucial part of this focus is what are loosely called sixth-generation fighters like the Tempest, which will have technology beyond the current fifth-generation jets such as stealth fighters including Lockheed's F-35 Lightning.
“AI is absolutely a key part of how we're able to support the pilots operating this type of system to help them not worry about analysing and understanding data, because there'll be vastly more data produced by this system than there ever has been previously. And the human brain is great, but you can only do so much. It's about presenting them with options and allowing them to do that,” Mr Stocker says.
Next generation aircraft will be at the heart of data-centric warfare, with stealth only one aspect. Projects in Europe, Japan and the US envision quantum computing for code cracking; rapidly improving AI, and aircraft, like the US's new B-21, acting as motherships for other drones.
It is difficult to design prototypes because some of the technology is in its infancy.
The Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider will be capable of delivering conventional and nuclear munitions. Photo: US Air Force
“It’s part of an integrated system. So it's not just about one aircraft, it looks at options of other types of systems,” Mr Stocker says.
“Uncrewed aircraft, as we refer to them, that could operate alongside the core platform that will help deliver overall capability alongside next generation weapons as well as the networks that will bind that together.
“If you're operating as a system, it has to be able to communicate together,” Mr Stocker says.
Networks, data and war
Data-centric warfare that “fuses” combat power from different units and branches of service is actually a couple of decades in the making, evolving from the 1990s era “network-centric warfare” but with an emphasis on drones and more computing power.
To an extent it can be seen in action in the Red Sea, where US sensors – from satellites to ship radar and airborne radar – work in tandem as a network of threat detectors against Houthi missiles, quickly assigning targets to ships or aircraft that are best placed to respond. The network is bigger than the sum of its parts.
AI as a helping hand for quick thinking will be vital as the US and Nato allies move closer to the ideal of a highly synchronised, networked attack.
Last year, AI-enabled swarms of small drones successfully tracked targets in a joint Australian, British and American exercise, but there are even more ambitious goals.
The US, for example, is planning to field at least 1,000 unmanned aircraft to accompany its F-35s and the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter, a highly classified programme, with both jets acting as motherships to the drones, also linked to its Replicator Initiative to mass produce drones.
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
In numbers
1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:
800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
150 tonnes to landfill
50 tonnes sold as scrap metal
800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal
Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
Who is playing New England Patriots v Los Angeles Rams
Where Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, United States
When Sunday (start time is 3.30am on Monday UAE time)
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Five expert hiking tips
Always check the weather forecast before setting off
Make sure you have plenty of water
Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon
Wear appropriate clothing and footwear
Take your litter home with you
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
We weren’t supposed to survive but we did.
We weren’t supposed to remember but we did.
We weren’t supposed to write but we did.
We weren’t supposed to fight but we did.
We weren’t supposed to organise but we did.
We weren’t supposed to rap but we did.
We weren’t supposed to find allies but we did.
We weren’t supposed to grow communities but we did.
We weren’t supposed to return but WE ARE.
Amira Sakalla
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
