WASHINGTON // As countries scrambled to evacuate their citizens from Libya yesterday, world powers were either unwilling or unable to intervene and stop violence that appears to be spiralling out of control.
Despite strong condemnations from the US and the UN, any concrete international action is yet to materialise.
Suggestions that Nato, the European military alliance that includes the US, should impose a no-fly zone over the country have yet to gain momentum and threats of sanctions against the country and its leadership remain rhetorical.
Nato's leadership stressed yesterday it would not intervene without a request from the UN, which analysts say would face Security Council opposition from Russia and China on any plans that involved military force.
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LIBYAN REVOLT
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Although the Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi's regime seems almost immune to the kind of diplomatic and economic pressure available to the international community in Tunisia and Egypt, there has been little discussion, at least in public, about any direct intervention, including military action.
While government officials from around the world insisted that all options were on the table, analysts warned that urgent and forceful measures would be needed soon to stop the violence from getting out of hand.
The fighting showed no sign of abating yesterday. Forces loyal to Colonel Qaddafi were reported to have attacked anti-government protesters who seized the western city of Misrata.
The government offensive came as forces loyal to the Libyan regime appeared increasingly isolated. Anti-government protesters had reportedly seized control over much of the east and two main cities in the west of the country.
Reports yesterday suggested that pro and anti-government forces were fighting for control of Zawiyah, just 50km west of Tripoli, Libya's capital and Colonel Qaddafi's stronghold.
All southern oilfields were also said to be in rebel hands, with the violence virtually wiping out the nation's oil exports, according to the head of Italy's ENI, Libya's biggest foreign oil operator. Libya pumps nearly 2 per cent of the world's oil supply and oil prices rose to about US$120 a barrel yesterday, increasing concerns about the global economic recovery.
In Tripoli, reports suggested an uneasy calm, with pro-government forces still controlling the streets. But William Hague, the British foreign secretary, suggested to the BBC that the odds on Colonel Qaddafi's political survival were worsening, and urged a stronger international response.
Any concerted international action still appears some way off, however. The US presient, Barack Obama, on Wednesday strongly condemned the violence in Libya as "outrageous", "unacceptable" and in violation of "international norms and every standard of common decency" in his first remarks on the crisis, but he stopped short of calling on Col Qaddafi to resign and did not announce any specific US measures.
In what has become a standard US response to the unrest that has gripped the region in the past months, the US leader asserted American support for the rights of people to peaceful assembly and free speech, but he said the issue of leadership was one for the Libyan people to make.
He also said the main US priority was evacuating its citizens from Libya. The US has chartered a ferry to take American citizens and embassy staff to Malta after being denied a request to bring a charter aircraft to Tripoli.
There was some suggestion that the US was waiting to evacuate its citizens before taking a stronger position.
In Brussels, Reuters reported that the European Union was weighing a range of options to evacuate its 5,000 to 6,000 citizens, and quoted an unnamed EU official as saying one possibility was a military humanitarian intervention force.
Britain also was mulling sending special forces to evacuate its citizens, but international efforts are so far directed at protecting its citizens rather than ending the bloodshed in Libya.
Some analysts suggest that the international community cannot delay taking firmer action to prevent the violence spiralling out of control.
Anouar Boukhars, professor of Middle East and North Africa studies at McDaniel College in Maryland, said: "The appropriate model [for an international response] is no longer Tunisia or Egypt. Now we are looking at a Bosnia or a Kosovo."
Professor Boukhars said the international community needed to take "creative and bold" action, starting with imposing a no-fly zone and encouraging defections from the Libyan Army by vowing to hold individuals responsible for any atrocities.
Ban Ki-Moon, the UN secretary general, said on Wednesday those "responsible for brutally shedding the blood of innocents must be punished". But decisions on such legally binding issues are taken by the UN Security Council, where the chances of a formal resolution are limited. Direct international intervention would have to come under the aegis of the UN, where the legal framework for such intervention exists. In 2005, UN member nations agreed to the Responsibility to Protect doctrine, which stipulated that if a government failed to protect its own people from crimes against humanity, the UN was responsible for taking action, including the "collective use of force".
Any attempt to invoke the doctrine now, however, would probably meet determined opposition from China and Russia, both security council members. The council is expected to meet again on Libya in coming days, but UN analysts, such as Jeffrey Laurenti from the Century Foundation, a New York think tank, said the body would move slowly and that tougher action was unlikely.
"An internal political upheaval inside Libya from a megalomaniacal leader is unlikely to be seen as a threat to international peace and security, so forceful action against a nasty government by the outside world is probably not going to come through the UN," Mr Laurenti said.
With the African Union an unlikely source of intervention and the Arab League largely toothless, Nato remains the most able international body to intervene. But without a UN directive, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Nato secretary general, made clear yesterday that would not happen.
"I would like to stress that Nato has no plans to intervene and we have not received any request," Mr Rasmussen said after talks with the Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych in Kiev.
"In any case, any action should be based on a clear United Nations mandate."
Mr Boukhars conceded that it would be difficult to secure widespread international support for any direct action. But if the conflict became all-out civil war, the notion of humanitarian intervention had to be on the table, he said.
An escalation in the fighting is almost certain.
"The problem is, there is going to be a winner and loser here. The protesters can't go home.
"If they do, they will be killed. Qaddafi and those around him probably understand that if they give up, the repercussions are going to be severe."
* With additional reporting by James Reinl at the United Nations
The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ
Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
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Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
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Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
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Engine: 5.2-litre V10
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Price: From Dh1 million
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Most F1 world titles
7 — Michael Schumacher (1994, ’95, 2000, ’01 ’02, ’03, ’04)
7 — Lewis Hamilton (2008, ’14,’15, ’17, ’18, ’19, ’20)
5 — Juan Manuel Fangio (1951, ’54, ’55, ’56, ’57)
4 — Alain Prost (1985, ’86, ’89, ’93)
4 — Sebastian Vettel (2010, ’11, ’12, ’13)
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Stars: Dave Bautista, Ella Purnell, Omari Hardwick, Ana de la Reguera
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Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
Pox that threatens the Middle East's native species
Camelpox
Caused by a virus related to the one that causes human smallpox, camelpox typically causes fever, swelling of lymph nodes and skin lesions in camels aged over three, but the animal usually recovers after a month or so. Younger animals may develop a more acute form that causes internal lesions and diarrhoea, and is often fatal, especially when secondary infections result. It is found across the Middle East as well as in parts of Asia, Africa, Russia and India.
Falconpox
Falconpox can cause a variety of types of lesions, which can affect, for example, the eyelids, feet and the areas above and below the beak. It is a problem among captive falcons and is one of many types of avian pox or avipox diseases that together affect dozens of bird species across the world. Among the other forms are pigeonpox, turkeypox, starlingpox and canarypox. Avipox viruses are spread by mosquitoes and direct bird-to-bird contact.
Houbarapox
Houbarapox is, like falconpox, one of the many forms of avipox diseases. It exists in various forms, with a type that causes skin lesions being least likely to result in death. Other forms cause more severe lesions, including internal lesions, and are more likely to kill the bird, often because secondary infections develop. This summer the CVRL reported an outbreak of pox in houbaras after rains in spring led to an increase in mosquito numbers.
Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
Penguin Press
Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites
The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.
It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.
“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.
The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
Brief scores:
Arsenal 4
Xhaka 25', Lacazette 55', Ramsey 79', Aubameyang 83'
Fulham 1
Kamara 69'
The biog
Favourite book: You Are the Placebo – Making your mind matter, by Dr Joe Dispenza
Hobby: Running and watching Welsh rugby
Travel destination: Cyprus in the summer
Life goals: To be an aspirational and passionate University educator, enjoy life, be healthy and be the best dad possible.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
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