Experts are questioning North Korea's reported death toll during a Covid-19 outbreak, with the isolated country saying on Friday that nearly 10 per cent of its 26 million people had fallen ill and 65 people had died.
After admitting to the Omicron outbreak last week after more than two years of claiming to be coronavirus-free, North Korea says an unidentified fever had been spreading across the country since late last month. Its anti-epidemic centre has since released tallies each morning of people reporting symptoms but not of confirmed Covid-19 cases.
Some observers say North Korea was probably forced to acknowledge the Covid-19 outbreak because it could not hide the highly contagious viral spread among its people and suffer potential public discontent with leader Kim Jong-un. They believe North Korean authorities are underreporting mortalities to try to show that its pandemic response is effective, while the country lacks testing kits to confirm a large number of infections.
Kwak Gil-sup, head of One Korea Centre, a website specialising in North Korea affairs, said: “It’s true that there has been a hole in its two-and-a-half years of pandemic fighting. But there is a saying that North Korea is ’a theatre state’ and I think they are massaging Covid-19 statistics.”
Mr Kwak said North Korea might be using the outbreak as a propaganda tool to show that it is overcoming the pandemic with Mr Kim’s leadership. But the country has “a Plan B” and “a Plan C” to seek Chinese and other foreign aid if the pandemic gets out of hand, he said.
On Friday, North Korea’s state emergency epidemic prevention headquarters said 263,370 more people had feverish symptoms and two more people had died, bringing the total "fever" cases to 2.24 million and deaths to 65. They said 754,810 people remain quarantined, according to the official Korean Central News Agency.
The outbreak likely originated from a military parade in Pyongyang on April 25 that Mr Kim organised to show off his new missiles and loyal troops. The parade and other related festivities, which marked North Korea’s army foundation anniversary, drew tens of thousands of people and soldiers from Pyongyang and other parts of the country, who returned home after the events.
South Korean security agents told politicians on Thursday that “a considerable number” of the fever cases reported by North Korea include people sick with waterborne diseases such as measles, typhoid and whooping cough.
The National Intelligence Service believes those diseases had been spreading across North Korea even before Covid-19 broke out, said Ha Tae-keung, a politician who attended a private NIS briefing. Mr Ha cited the NIS as saying the waterborne diseases were spreading due to shortages of medicines and medical supplies.
The NIS "said it doesn’t know exactly what percentage of the fever cases are coronavirus patients", Mr Ha said.
"It said North Korea lacks coronavirus diagnostic kits but appears to have sufficient thermometers.”
The NIS has a patchy record in confirming developments in North Korea. Some civilian medical experts had earlier said they believed most of the fever cases announced by the North were Covid-19.
On Monday, when the North’s fever cases had already surpassed 1.2 million, Ryu Yong-chol, an official at Pyongyang’s anti-virus headquarters, said on state TV that the government had detected 168 Covid-19 cases as of last Saturday. There have been no updates on the North’s virus cases since.
Ahn Kyung-su, head of a website focusing on health issues in North Korea, said Pyongyang had likely determined its Omicron outbreak would not cause a catastrophic number of deaths but disclosed it to prevent potential public unrest. He said North Korea’s increased anti-virus measures were partly meant to solidify its control of a public tired of previous restrictions and other difficulties.
“North Korea’s pandemic response isn’t completely staged as people are dying," Mr Ahn said. "But it’s obvious that its leadership’s political intentions have been added there. One day, they’ll proclaim their victory over Covid-19 in a colourful manner.”
Doubts remain over the standard of North Korea’s public medical system and experts say the country could suffer mass pandemic deaths if it does not receive outside aid shipments. They say the country’s elevated restrictions on movement and quarantine rules may also lead to widespread hunger.
The NIS said North Korea intends to overcome the pandemic with assistance from its main ally, China, said Mr Ha and Kim Byung-kee, another politician who was briefed by the intelligence service. During an anti-virus meeting on Saturday, Mr Kim said his country faced “a great upheaval” and that officials must study how China and other nations have handled the pandemic.
Some media outlets said North Korea sent planes to China to bring back emergency supplies this week but the South Korean government said it could not confirm such reports. South Korea said it and the United States have offered to ship vaccines, medicines and other medical supplies to North Korea, but the North has not responded.
With reporting from AFP
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Kat Wightman's tips on how to create zones in large spaces
- Area carpets or rugs are the easiest way to segregate spaces while also unifying them.
- Lighting can help define areas. Try pendant lighting over dining tables, and side and floor lamps in living areas.
- Keep the colour palette the same in a room, but combine different tones and textures in different zone. A common accent colour dotted throughout the space brings it together.
- Don’t be afraid to use furniture to break up the space. For example, if you have a sofa placed in the middle of the room, a console unit behind it will give good punctuation.
- Use a considered collection of prints and artworks that work together to form a cohesive journey.
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Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster who has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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What it means to be a conservationist
Who is Enric Sala?
Enric Sala is an expert on marine conservation and is currently the National Geographic Society's Explorer-in-Residence. His love of the sea started with his childhood in Spain, inspired by the example of the legendary diver Jacques Cousteau. He has been a university professor of Oceanography in the US, as well as working at the Spanish National Council for Scientific Research and is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Biodiversity and the Bio-Economy. He has dedicated his life to protecting life in the oceans. Enric describes himself as a flexitarian who only eats meat occasionally.
What is biodiversity?
According to the United Nations Environment Programme, all life on earth – including in its forests and oceans – forms a “rich tapestry of interconnecting and interdependent forces”. Biodiversity on earth today is the product of four billion years of evolution and consists of many millions of distinct biological species. The term ‘biodiversity’ is relatively new, popularised since the 1980s and coinciding with an understanding of the growing threats to the natural world including habitat loss, pollution and climate change. The loss of biodiversity itself is dangerous because it contributes to clean, consistent water flows, food security, protection from floods and storms and a stable climate. The natural world can be an ally in combating global climate change but to do so it must be protected. Nations are working to achieve this, including setting targets to be reached by 2020 for the protection of the natural state of 17 per cent of the land and 10 per cent of the oceans. However, these are well short of what is needed, according to experts, with half the land needed to be in a natural state to help avert disaster.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Name: Colm McLoughlin
Country: Galway, Ireland
Job: Executive vice chairman and chief executive of Dubai Duty Free
Favourite golf course: Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club
Favourite part of Dubai: Palm Jumeirah
GYAN’S ASIAN OUTPUT
2011-2015: Al Ain – 123 apps, 128 goals
2015-2017: Shanghai SIPG – 20 apps, 7 goals
2016-2017: Al Ahli (loan) – 25 apps, 11 goals
The drill
Recharge as needed, says Mat Dryden: “We try to make it a rule that every two to three months, even if it’s for four days, we get away, get some time together, recharge, refresh.” The couple take an hour a day to check into their businesses and that’s it.
Stick to the schedule, says Mike Addo: “We have an entire wall known as ‘The Lab,’ covered with colour-coded Post-it notes dedicated to our joint weekly planner, content board, marketing strategy, trends, ideas and upcoming meetings.”
Be a team, suggests Addo: “When training together, you have to trust in each other’s abilities. Otherwise working out together very quickly becomes one person training the other.”
Pull your weight, says Thuymi Do: “To do what we do, there definitely can be no lazy member of the team.”
Brief scores:
Juventus 3
Dybala 6', Bonucci 17', Ronaldo 63'
Frosinone 0
The specs: 2019 Jeep Wrangler
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Fuel economy, combined: 9.6L to 10.3L / 100km
Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
