A man stands by the Arabian Sea coast as it drizzles in Kochi in the southern state of Kerala where India's monsoon begins. AP Photo
A man stands by the Arabian Sea coast as it drizzles in Kochi in the southern state of Kerala where India's monsoon begins. AP Photo
A man stands by the Arabian Sea coast as it drizzles in Kochi in the southern state of Kerala where India's monsoon begins. AP Photo
A man stands by the Arabian Sea coast as it drizzles in Kochi in the southern state of Kerala where India's monsoon begins. AP Photo

India forecast to experience normal monsoon this year


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India's monsoon, which irrigates more than half the country's farmland and is critical for economic growth, is expected to be normal for a third year as external weather patterns such as El Nino are likely to be absent.

Total rainfall during the June-September rainy period is likely to be 98 per cent of a long-term average, Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said on Friday. The forecast has a 5 per cent margin of error.

Most parts of the country, except some areas in the east and the north, are likely to receive normal to above-normal rain during the four-month period, according to the India Meteorological Department.

The chances of a normal monsoon are 40 per cent, while there is a 16 per cent chance of above-normal rains, the department said. The likelihood of below-normal showers is 25 per cent.

The monsoon is crucial for India because about 60 per cent of more than 1.3 billion people depend directly or indirectly on agriculture, which accounts for about 18 per cent of its economy. Normal rains would help to support an economic recovery, which is facing new risks from a resurgence in coronavirus cases.

“Amidst the heightened uncertainty related to the second wave of Covid-19 in India, the India Meteorological Department’s forecast of a likely normal monsoon for the third year in a row couldn’t have come at a better time,” said Kaushik Das, chief India economist at Deutsche Bank in Mumbai.

"A probable normal monsoon will help the farm sector to grow by at least 3 per cent this year, as per our current forecast, and will also reduce potential risks on the inflation front, that is generally associated with [an] erratic monsoon," Mr Das said.

Rains during the four-month period not only water some fields directly, but also fill reservoirs that help to irrigate winter-sown crops. A good monsoon boosts crop output, while deficient rains lead to drinking water shortages, lower crop output and higher imports of some commodities.

The nation is the world’s top grower of cotton, the second-biggest producer of wheat, rice and sugar, and the largest buyer of palm oil.

About 60 per cent to 90 per cent of total annual rainfall occurs during the season over different states. A monsoon is considered normal when rains recorded are between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average.

A combine harvester at work in a wheat field in Panipat district of Haryana, India, on April 11, 2021. Bloomberg
A combine harvester at work in a wheat field in Panipat district of Haryana, India, on April 11, 2021. Bloomberg

Kerala first

The monsoon typically reaches the southern state of Kerala in the first week of June, before moving north to cover most of the nation. Any delay or rain deficit in the early part of the season could hamper sowing and hurt crops such as rice, cotton and soybeans, even if the rainfall gathers pace later.

Last year’s monsoon rain was 9 per cent higher than normal, while it was 10 per cent more than the long-term average in 2019. Bountiful rains helped crops and boosted India’s food grain output to a record in 2020-2021.

Agriculture was the only bright spot as the economy posted a record slump last year as manufacturing and services were badly hit by the nationwide lockdown caused by the rapid spread of the coronavirus.

The meteorological department said that neutral Enso conditions – the absence of El Nino or La Nina weather patterns – are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean, supporting its forecast of a normal monsoon this year.

“There is very much less chance of El Nino development during the monsoon season.”

From Zero

Artist: Linkin Park

Label: Warner Records

Number of tracks: 11

Rating: 4/5

Results

2pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m, Winner: AF Thayer, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).

2.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: AF Sahwa, Nathan Crosse, Mohamed Ramadan.

3pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,000m, Winner: AF Thobor, Szczepan Mazur, Ernst Oertel.

3.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 2,000m, Winner: AF Mezmar, Szczepan Mazur, Ernst Oertel.

4pm: Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup presented by Longines (TB) Dh 200,000 (D) 1,700m, Winner: Galvanize, Nathan Cross, Doug Watson.

4.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,700m, Winner: Ajaj, Bernardo Pinheiro, Mohamed Daggash.

Brahmastra%3A%20Part%20One%20-%20Shiva
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAyan%20Mukerji%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERanbir%20Kapoor%2C%20Alia%20Bhatt%20and%20Amitabh%20Bachchan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE BIO

Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979

Education: UAE University, Al Ain

Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6

Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma

Favourite book: Science and geology

Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC

Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.

Stamp duty timeline

December 2014: Former UK finance minister George Osbourne reforms stamp duty, replacing the slab system with a blended rate scheme, with the top rate increasing to 12 per cent from 10 per cent:
Up to £125,000 - 0%; £125,000 to £250,000 – 2%; £250,000 to £925,000 – 5%; £925,000 to £1.5m: 10%; Over £1.5m – 12%

April 2016: New 3% surcharge applied to any buy-to-let properties or additional homes purchased.

July 2020: Rishi Sunak unveils SDLT holiday, with no tax to pay on the first £500,000, with buyers saving up to £15,000.

March 2021: Mr Sunak decides the fate of SDLT holiday at his March 3 budget, with expectations he will extend the perk unti June.

April 2021: 2% SDLT surcharge added to property transactions made by overseas buyers.

Jetour T1 specs

Engine: 2-litre turbocharged

Power: 254hp

Torque: 390Nm

Price: From Dh126,000

Available: Now

Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

Six large-scale objects on show
  • Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
  • The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
  • A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
  • Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
  • A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
  • Torrijos Palace dome
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood

Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.

 

 

MATCH INFO

Champions League quarter-final, first leg

Ajax v Juventus, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)

Match on BeIN Sports

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Poacher
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Moral education needed in a 'rapidly changing world'

Moral education lessons for young people is needed in a rapidly changing world, the head of the programme said.

Alanood Al Kaabi, head of programmes at the Education Affairs Office of the Crown Price Court - Abu Dhabi, said: "The Crown Price Court is fully behind this initiative and have already seen the curriculum succeed in empowering young people and providing them with the necessary tools to succeed in building the future of the nation at all levels.

"Moral education touches on every aspect and subject that children engage in.

"It is not just limited to science or maths but it is involved in all subjects and it is helping children to adapt to integral moral practises.

"The moral education programme has been designed to develop children holistically in a world being rapidly transformed by technology and globalisation."

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

RESULTS

Bantamweight

Victor Nunes (BRA) beat Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK)

(Split decision)

Featherweight

Hussein Salim (IRQ) beat Shakhriyor Juraev (UZB)

(Round 1 submission, armbar)

Catchweight 80kg

Rashed Dawood (UAE) beat Otabek Kadirov (UZB)

(Round-1 submission, rear naked choke)

Lightweight

Ho Taek-oh (KOR) beat Ronald Girones (CUB)

(Round 3 submission, triangle choke)

Lightweight

Arthur Zaynukov (RUS) beat Damien Lapilus (FRA)

(Unanimous points)

Bantamweight

Vinicius de Oliveira (BRA) beat Furkatbek Yokubov (RUS)

(Round 1 TKO)

Featherweight

Movlid Khaybulaev (RUS) v Zaka Fatullazade (AZE)

(Round 1 rear naked choke)

Flyweight

Shannon Ross (TUR) beat Donovon Freelow (USA)

(Unanimous decision)

Lightweight

Dan Collins (GBR) beat Mohammad Yahya (UAE)

(Round 2 submission D’arce choke)

Catchweight 73kg

Martun Mezhulmyan (ARM) beat Islam Mamedov (RUS)

(Round 3 submission, kneebar)

Bantamweight world title

Xavier Alaoui (MAR) beat Jaures Dea (CAM)

(Unanimous points 48-46, 49-45, 49-45)

Flyweight world title

Manon Fiorot (FRA) v Gabriela Campo (ARG)

(Round 1 RSC)

All%20The%20Light%20We%20Cannot%20See%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESteven%20Knight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMark%20Ruffalo%2C%20Hugh%20Laurie%2C%20Aria%20Mia%20Loberti%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

GOLF’S RAHMBO

- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)

Play-off fixtures

Two-legged ties to be played November 9-11 and November 12-14

 

  • Northern Ireland v Switzerland
  • Croatia v Greece
  • Denmark v Ireland
  • Sweden v Italy
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETwig%20Solutions%20(with%20trade%20name%20Twig)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChafic%20Idriss%2C%20Karam%20El%20Dik%20and%20Rayan%20Antonios%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Ebootstrapped%20(undisclosed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E13%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Epre-seed%20%E2%80%94%20closing%20the%20round%20as%20we%20speak%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20senior%20executives%20from%20the%20GCC%20financial%20services%20industry%20and%20global%20family%20offices%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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THE BIO

BIO:
Born in RAK on December 9, 1983
Lives in Abu Dhabi with her family
She graduated from Emirates University in 2007 with a BA in architectural engineering
Her motto in life is her grandmother’s saying “That who created you will not have you get lost”
Her ambition is to spread UAE’s culture of love and acceptance through serving coffee, the country’s traditional coffee in particular.