Students are even more glued to their phones than usual as they await their results. REUTERS
Students are even more glued to their phones than usual as they await their results. REUTERS
Students are even more glued to their phones than usual as they await their results. REUTERS
Students are even more glued to their phones than usual as they await their results. REUTERS

Anxious wait for A-level and GCSE pupils after a quarter of Scottish predicted results downgraded


Jamie Prentis
  • English
  • Arabic

Pupils around the world face a nervous wait for A-level and GCSE results after an outcry over as many as a quarter of grades being marked down from those predicted by teachers in Scotland this week.

The Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA), the country’s exams body, lowered almost 125,000 of the grades assessed by teachers in the National 5, the Higher and the Advanced Higher, the local qualifications broadly equivalent to GCSEs, AS and A-levels.

More than 100 pupils protested against the deflated results in Glasgow on Friday while others gathered outside the SQA headquarters in Midlothian. Many claimed that they had been the victims of their postcodes, saying that those in the poorest areas had been disproportionately affected.

Deputy First Minister of Scotland and Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills John Swinney has been under fire with Scottish students dissenting over their results. REUTERS
Deputy First Minister of Scotland and Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills John Swinney has been under fire with Scottish students dissenting over their results. REUTERS

The extent of downgrading has added to widespread fears that millions of A-level and GCSE results predicted by teachers will be adjusted downwards before students receive them on August 13 and August 20, respectively.

Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, grades are being calculated by Ofqual, the exams watchdog in England, this year using an algorithm to standardise results. The computer moderation will be based on a variety of factors, including teachers’ predictions, pupils’ individual rankings in each subject, and the historic performance of the school.

Critics of the new system argue that it could disadvantage poorer pupils and those from black, Asian and other ethnic-minority backgrounds, who are more likely to attend under-performing schools.

Fears over widespread grade deflation

Some British newspapers reported on Friday that the standardisation system in this exceptional year would deflate around 40 per cent of grades submitted to the exam board by teachers.

Confidence in the forthcoming A-level and GCSE results was already shaky after thousands of students and teachers expressed indignation last month when International Baccalaureate grades were released.

Improvement on such a scale in a single year has never occurred and to allow it would significantly undermine the value of these grades for students

Many angry and disappointed pupils signed petitions demanding regrades because their marks were worse than expected and did not meet university entry requirements.

Ofqual warned last month that A-level grades being submitted by teachers had been optimistically inflated by an average of 12 percentage points above those achieved in 2019.

“Improvement on such a scale in a single year has never occurred and to allow it would significantly undermine the value of these grades for students,” Ofqual said.

The exams regulator said that the teacher-assessed grades would be lowered by 10 percentage points this summer, which would still mean that A-Level results would improve by 2 per cent on last year.

According to an analysis of the algorithm and data used by Ofqual, 39 per cent of assessments of A-level grades by teachers are likely to be reduced, a report in The Guardian said on Friday. Including GCSEs, which the newspaper said were expected to have a similar downgrade rate, a total of two million teacher assessments would be lowered.

Even before the results are announced, education lawyers are warning schools to prepare for an avalanche of demands from furious parents to lodge appeals on behalf of their children.

In guidance posted online last month, Ofqual told pupils that the revision of grades was for their own good.

“This is in your interest and those of all students, and means that you, universities, colleges and employers can have confidence in results this year.”

It said that the expectation was that the majority of grades would be identical to or within one grade of those predicted by teachers. If pupils were unhappy with their grades, they could still make appeals against them but only by proving that procedural errors had been made.

However, following the howl of protest over the results in Scotland, Ofqual announced on Thursday that it was widening the powers that schools and colleges had to challenge A-level and GCSE results if they believed them to be unfair.

The extended appeals criteria mean schools that feel their past results were distorted somehow - perhaps by significant changes in leadership, a monumental event such as a fire or a single-sex institution going co-educational - could mount appeals.

Ofqual also said that appeals could be made by schools “where they can show students’ grades are lower than expected because previous cohorts are not sufficiently representative of this year’s students”.

Changes welcomed by UK education secretary

The UK Education Secretary, Gavin Williamson, welcomed the announced changes. “It is vital that students with exceptional circumstances are not held back by the way grades have been calculated – including those who are highly talented in schools that have not in the past had strong results, or where schools have undergone significant changes such as a new leadership team,” Mr Williamson said.

British qualifications are a popular choice for pupils in many countries around the world, including the UAE where, according to WhichSchoolAdvisor, a reviewer of leading independent schools, 91 institutions offer A-levels.

UK education secretary Gavin Williamson has welcomed the expanded appeals criteria. Reuters
UK education secretary Gavin Williamson has welcomed the expanded appeals criteria. Reuters

Jeff Evans, the director of Learning Key Education Consultancy in Abu Dhabi, said there had already been great uncertainty about the reliance on an untested system. Mr Evans said the news from Scotland would have made students and parents even more anxious.

“If a child has sat an exam they have a reasonable idea coming out how well they’ve done," he said. "Did they answer all the questions, did they find the questions difficult, were they the kind questions that they’ve practised before?”

Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon defended the process implemented by SQA. “What we want to make sure is that this year's results have the degree of credibility that means that they are not so out of sync with previous years' that people are going to look at them and say 'they don't make any sense,” she said.

"As much as I would love to be in the position of standing here credibly saying that 85 per cent of the 20 per cent in the most deprived areas had passed Higher, given that it was 65 per cent last year, that would raise a real credibility issue,” said Ms Sturgeon, who leads the Scottish National Party.

What we want to make sure is that this year's results have the degree of credibility

Her rivals seized on the confusion, with the Conservative Party calling the situation “a shambles”.

The chief examining officer of the SQA, Fiona Robertson, said it was unclear why the predicted grades had been higher than in previous years. "There may be several reasons why estimates were above historic attainment, which has been relatively stable over time,” Ms Robertson said.

"Some teachers and lecturers may have been optimistic, given the circumstances of this year, or may have believed, correctly or incorrectly, that this cohort of candidates may have achieved better grades due to a range of factors."

Ofqual has confirmed that pupils who wish to improve any of their grades have an opportunity to take exams in the autumn.

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Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.

Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born. 

UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.

A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.

Brief scoreline

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Citizenship-by-investment programmes

United Kingdom

The UK offers three programmes for residency. The UK Overseas Business Representative Visa lets you open an overseas branch office of your existing company in the country at no extra investment. For the UK Tier 1 Innovator Visa, you are required to invest £50,000 (Dh238,000) into a business. You can also get a UK Tier 1 Investor Visa if you invest £2 million, £5m or £10m (the higher the investment, the sooner you obtain your permanent residency).

All UK residency visas get approved in 90 to 120 days and are valid for 3 years. After 3 years, the applicant can apply for extension of another 2 years. Once they have lived in the UK for a minimum of 6 months every year, they are eligible to apply for permanent residency (called Indefinite Leave to Remain). After one year of ILR, the applicant can apply for UK passport.

The Caribbean

Depending on the country, the investment amount starts from $100,000 (Dh367,250) and can go up to $400,000 in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take between four to five months to receive a passport. 

Portugal

The investment amount ranges from €350,000 to €500,000 (Dh1.5m to Dh2.16m) in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take a maximum of six months to receive a Golden Visa. Applicants can apply for permanent residency after five years and Portuguese citizenship after six years.

“Among European countries with residency programmes, Portugal has been the most popular because it offers the most cost-effective programme to eventually acquire citizenship of the European Union without ever residing in Portugal,” states Veronica Cotdemiey of Citizenship Invest.

Greece

The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Greece is €250,000, making it the cheapest real estate residency visa scheme in Europe. You can apply for residency in four months and citizenship after seven years.

Spain

The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Spain is €500,000. You can apply for permanent residency after five years and citizenship after 10 years. It is not necessary to live in Spain to retain and renew the residency visa permit.

Cyprus

Cyprus offers the quickest route to citizenship of a European country in only six months. An investment of €2m in real estate is required, making it the highest priced programme in Europe.

Malta

The Malta citizenship by investment programme is lengthy and investors are required to contribute sums as donations to the Maltese government. The applicant must either contribute at least €650,000 to the National Development & Social Fund. Spouses and children are required to contribute €25,000; unmarried children between 18 and 25 and dependent parents must contribute €50,000 each.

The second step is to make an investment in property of at least €350,000 or enter a property rental contract for at least €16,000 per annum for five years. The third step is to invest at least €150,000 in bonds or shares approved by the Maltese government to be kept for at least five years.

Candidates must commit to a minimum physical presence in Malta before citizenship is granted. While you get residency in two months, you can apply for citizenship after a year.

Egypt 

A one-year residency permit can be bought if you purchase property in Egypt worth $100,000. A three-year residency is available for those who invest $200,000 in property, and five years for those who purchase property worth $400,000.

Source: Citizenship Invest and Aqua Properties

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