LONDON // Gordon Brown could be forgiven for being one of the few world leaders not transfixed by the outcome of the US election in two days' time.
For him the crucial test at the polls comes not on Tuesday, but about 48 hours later.
Hence, the gaze of the British prime minister, currently visiting the Gulf, is not on Washington but on the seemingly obscure Scottish town of Glenrothes where a much smaller - but to Mr Brown even more significant - election takes place on Thursday.
One month ago a by-election in the town, caused by the death of the sitting Labour MP, seemed to be the last thing the prime minister needed. At the time it appeared that by year's end a challenge to his leadership would be inevitable if Labour lost the seat.
And lose it they seemed almost certain to do, with the bookmakers making the Scottish National Party (SNP) the runaway, 4-1 odds-on favourite for victory, not least because of its stunning by-election success in Glasgow East during the summer, where it overturned a Labour majority of more than 20,000.
But any month in politics is a very, very long time? and this past month has been even longer than most. It has seen banking crises followed by global economic crises followed by fears of worldwide recession.
And Mr Brown has emerged from it all, at least for the moment, smelling of roses. His bank rescue plan has been adopted throughout much of the West and his standing in the opinion polls has soared, although admittedly from a very low base. In the latest survey he had cut the Conservatives' previous 15-point lead by 11 points.
At the same time the wheels seem to have been falling off the SNP bandwagon. After its capture of the Scottish assembly in the spring and its victory in Glasgow, its fortunes have nosedived as speedily as Mr Brown's have risen.
The underlying reason is the same: the economic crisis. For years, Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, has been pointing to an "arc of prosperity" of three small, northern European countries as his blueprint for an independent Scotland.
Unfortunately for him those three nations were Iceland, which is now effectively bankrupt, Ireland, which had to guarantee everyone's bank deposits as the bank system there approached collapse, and Norway, whose foreign minister publicly rebuked Mr Salmond last week, saying the Norwegian experience was nothing like that of the Scots.
Labour could scarcely believe its luck.
"Alex Salmond has been humiliated by the Norwegian minister's comments," crowed Iain Gray, the party's leader in Scotland. "His bogus claims about other countries? are now becoming embarrassing and a distraction. He should concentrate on what he should be doing in Scotland during the crisis."
The SNP's problems deepened when Peter Grant, who is attempting to overturn a Labour majority of 10,600, revealed that, if elected, he did not want to spend more than five years in the UK parliament in London because of homesickness.
Even before the five years were up, he added, he hoped Scotland would vote for independence in a referendum so that he would have to spend a minimum amount of time in Westminster.
"I don't want to spend any more time down there than I have to," Mr Grant said. "I would be homesick after more than that."
Such remarks were manna for Lindsay Roy, the Labour candidate.
"If I have the honour of being elected," he said with self-righteous indignation, "I will serve as long as the people of Glenrothes so choose."
John Park, a party spokesman, went further. "Peter Grant looks half-hearted and not interested in the job. It is really breathtaking arrogance to think that he can just give up because he might be bored or homesick."
Even so, Labour is far from home and dry and the party knows it. A steady stream of ministers has been traipsing up to Glenrothes - a neat if uninspiring "new town" largely built after the Second World War - in the hope of tipping the balance in Labour's favour.
Mr Brown himself has been up there campaigning, most recently on Friday, hours before flying off for his mini-trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. Such prime ministerial trips are a rarity in an age when sitting premiers normally consider themselves above the mudslinging fray of by-election politics.
The stakes for the prime minister, though, are high. Although he has won domestic and international approval for his actions during the economic turmoil, Mr Brown knows that the SNP has been effectively campaigning on the issue of rising energy bills in Glenrothes.
At the moment, the bookmakers have even odds on Labour winning the seat, with SNP at 11-8 against. It is a major turnaround from a month ago, but nowhere near the guarantee of victory that Labour would like.
And Mr Brown badly needs that victory.
If, after winning plaudits for his handling of the economy, he still cannot lead Labour to a win in Glenrothes, then he can expect the knives of his opponents within the party - and there are many of them - to be flourished again, with even sharper edges this time.
dsapsted@thenational.ae
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Three ways to limit your social media use
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
England v South Africa schedule
- First Test: Starts Thursday, Lord's, 2pm (UAE)
- Second Test: July 14-18, Trent Bridge, Nottingham, 2pm
- Third Test: The Oval, London, July 27-31, 2pm
- Fourth Test: Old Trafford, Manchester, August 4-8
Small Victories: The True Story of Faith No More by Adrian Harte
Jawbone Press
How%20to%20avoid%20getting%20scammed
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENever%20click%20on%20links%20provided%20via%20app%20or%20SMS%2C%20even%20if%20they%20seem%20to%20come%20from%20authorised%20senders%20at%20first%20glance%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAlways%20double-check%20the%20authenticity%20of%20websites%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEnable%20Two-Factor%20Authentication%20(2FA)%20for%20all%20your%20working%20and%20personal%20services%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOnly%20use%20official%20links%20published%20by%20the%20respective%20entity%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDouble-check%20the%20web%20addresses%20to%20reduce%20exposure%20to%20fake%20sites%20created%20with%20domain%20names%20containing%20spelling%20errors%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
The specs: 2018 Audi RS5
Price, base: Dh359,200
Engine: 2.9L twin-turbo V6
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 450hp at 5,700rpm
Torque: 600Nm at 1,900rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.7L / 100km