There could be as many as 90,000 new Covid-19 infections a day in the UK, the chief scientific adviser has warned, compared to the 21,242 officially confirmed cases announced on Thursday.
The pandemic modelling group (SPI-M) that advises the government estimated a daily incidence rate of between 53,000-90,000 according to data collected until October 20.
"Obviously with that number of infections, you expect to see an increase in hospitalisations as well. So the number of infections overall across the country continues to increase," Patrick Vallance told a press conference.
Britain has suffered Europe's worst death toll from coronavirus, with more than 44,000 deaths.
Patients admitted to hospital suffering from the virus continue to rise, with numbers hovering around 1,000 a day.
“It’s worth remembering that the number of infections leads to hospitalisation a week or two later and that in turn has the effect of increasing intensive care unit numbers and of course unfortunately a number of people will die as a result of that and that will increase a week or two after that," Mr Vallance said.
"So we expect to see a delay from the number of infections through to hospitalisation through to the very serious consequences and to death.
The rise in hospitalisations has led to more and more beds getting taken up before the winter.
“The more patients there are with Covid, the more the pressure on the healthcare system overall and the more the other conditions get affected because people don’t have the capacity to deal with it," Mr Vallance said.
"So it’s very important to keep the number of infections down if we are to reduce the number of hospitalisations.”
The R rate – the average of how many people a Covid-positive person would infect - is also on the rise.
It's been on the increase since August as lockdown measures were loosened and now stands between 1.2-1.5. However, this is half the number of 3, which is regarded as the natural figure if no precautions are taken.
Mr Vallance said it “definitely reflects the huge effort people have made to try to adhere to the various measures that are in place".
"The fact that we’re wearing masks, we’re keeping a distance, we’re washing our hands, we’re doing the things that we need to do to try to reduce it has brought the R down but this also means that the epidemic is still growing," he said.
The virus has not been evenly spread across the country, with the north-west particularly hard hit, as this chart shows.
A string of major urban centres in northern England have been put into the highest level of restrictions, known as Tier-3, which means there is a very high risk of Covid-19 spreading.
The greater prevalence of Covid in the north of England is reflected in a far higher level of hospitalisations.
Swathes of northern England, including the cities of Liverpool and Manchester, have been placed under more stringent restrictions, joining Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales with tighter curbs to help stem spiking infections.
The situation in Greater Manchester led to a public spat between local figures and central government, as the latter ordered a Tier-3 lockdown despite the protestations of the former. Manchester's mayor Andy Burnham had demanded the UK government offer greater support to workers who would lose their jobs if tighter restrictions were put in place.
Maestro
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If you go
Flight connections to Ulaanbaatar are available through a variety of hubs, including Seoul and Beijing, with airlines including Mongolian Airlines and Korean Air. While some nationalities, such as Americans, don’t need a tourist visa for Mongolia, others, including UAE citizens, can obtain a visa on arrival, while others including UK citizens, need to obtain a visa in advance. Contact the Mongolian Embassy in the UAE for more information.
Nomadic Road offers expedition-style trips to Mongolia in January and August, and other destinations during most other months. Its nine-day August 2020 Mongolia trip will cost from $5,250 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, two nights’ hotel accommodation in Ulaanbaatar, vehicle rental, fuel, third party vehicle liability insurance, the services of a guide and support team, accommodation, food and entrance fees; nomadicroad.com
A fully guided three-day, two-night itinerary at Three Camel Lodge costs from $2,420 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, accommodation, meals and excursions including the Yol Valley and Flaming Cliffs. A return internal flight from Ulaanbaatar to Dalanzadgad costs $300 per person and the flight takes 90 minutes each way; threecamellodge.com
Palestine and Israel - live updates
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 275hp at 6,600rpm
Torque: 353Nm from 1,450-4,700rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Top speed: 250kph
Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: Dh146,999
Manikarnika: The Queen of Jhansi
Director: Kangana Ranaut, Krish Jagarlamudi
Producer: Zee Studios, Kamal Jain
Cast: Kangana Ranaut, Ankita Lokhande, Danny Denzongpa, Atul Kulkarni
Rating: 2.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Blah
Started: 2018
Founder: Aliyah Al Abbar and Hend Al Marri
Based: Dubai
Industry: Technology and talent management
Initial investment: Dh20,000
Investors: Self-funded
Total customers: 40
Need to know
The flights: Flydubai flies from Dubai to Kilimanjaro airport via Dar es Salaam from Dh1,619 return including taxes. The trip takes 8 hours.
The trek: Make sure that whatever tour company you select to climb Kilimanjaro, that it is a reputable one. The way to climb successfully would be with experienced guides and porters, from a company committed to quality, safety and an ethical approach to the mountain and its staff. Sonia Nazareth booked a VIP package through Safari Africa. The tour works out to $4,775 (Dh17,538) per person, based on a 4-person booking scheme, for 9 nights on the mountain (including one night before and after the trek at Arusha). The price includes all meals, a head guide, an assistant guide for every 2 trekkers, porters to carry the luggage, a cook and kitchen staff, a dining and mess tent, a sleeping tent set up for 2 persons, a chemical toilet and park entrance fees. The tiny ration of heated water provided for our bath in our makeshift private bathroom stall was the greatest luxury. A standard package, also based on a 4-person booking, works out to $3,050 (Dh11,202) per person.
When to go: You can climb Kili at any time of year, but the best months to ascend are January-February and September-October. Also good are July and August, if you’re tolerant of the colder weather that winter brings.
Do not underestimate the importance of kit. Even if you’re travelling at a relatively pleasant time, be geared up for the cold and the rain.
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Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The biog
Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia
Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins
Favourite dish: Grilled fish
Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.
More from Aya Iskandarani
More on Quran memorisation:
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m, Winner: Zalman, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Hisham Al Khalediah II, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash.
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Qader, Adrie de Vries, Jean de Roualle
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship Listed (PA) Dh180,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Mujeeb, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Shanaghai City, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly
8pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 1,400m, Winner: Nayslayer, Bernardo Pinheiro, Jaber Ramadhan
THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
FA Cup fifth round draw
Sheffield Wednesday v Manchester City
Reading/Cardiff City v Sheffield United
Chelsea v Shrewsbury Town/Liverpool
West Bromwich Albion v Newcastle United/Oxford United
Leicester City v Coventry City/Birmingham City
Northampton Town/Derby County v Manchester United
Southampton/Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City
Portsmouth v Arsenal
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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