Britain's state-run health service is preparing itself to begin a Covid-19 vaccination programme in 2020. AFP
Britain's state-run health service is preparing itself to begin a Covid-19 vaccination programme in 2020. AFP
Britain's state-run health service is preparing itself to begin a Covid-19 vaccination programme in 2020. AFP
Britain's state-run health service is preparing itself to begin a Covid-19 vaccination programme in 2020. AFP

Six charts behind England's second Covid-19 lockdown


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"No responsible prime minister can ignore the message of those figures," said Boris Johnson as he announced that from this Thursday, England would be placed into a second national lockdown.

Two weeks ago the UK Prime Minister rejected calls for a circuit breaker saying "we are going to do it with the local, the regional approach that can drive down and will drive down the virus if it is properly implemented".

These charts, presented during the announcement of the lockdown, help to explain why Mr Johnson decided to embark on a rapid about-turn.

UK Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said that the R rate had been going up very rapidly, citing Office of National Statistics data which estimates about 50,0000 new cases a day, although he acknowledged that the rate would have been much higher "if people were not doing social distancing and other things".

These maps show how cases have been steadily increasing everywhere with a particular concentration in the north of England.

These charts show how the case rate across the UK has started to increase almost everywhere. Gov.uk
These charts show how the case rate across the UK has started to increase almost everywhere. Gov.uk

This chart emphasises the regionality of the case rate but Mr Whitty pointed out that cases were rising everywhere as justification for taking national action.

Infection rates are rising everywhere but concentrated in the North. Gov.uk
Infection rates are rising everywhere but concentrated in the North. Gov.uk

This heat map reaffirms the concentration of cases in the north but also shows that people aged 16 to 29 are the most likely age group to be infected.

16-29 year-olds are the most likely to have coronavirus. Gov.uk
16-29 year-olds are the most likely to have coronavirus. Gov.uk

NHS facing collapse without action

Of course it is not the escalating case rate alone that has persuaded Mr Johnson to get out his national padlock again - it is the potentially dire consequences of this increase.

This chart shows how hospital admissions have risen precipitously during October.

Hospital admisions are shooting up among the over 75s. Gov.uk
Hospital admisions are shooting up among the over 75s. Gov.uk

Boris Johnson's Chief Scientific Officer, Patrick Vallance, said hospitalisations could comfortably exceed those of the first wave, and cited NHS forecasts that show the extra available beds will be exceeded in mid-November - meaning that the NHS could effectively collapse in six weeks without action.

The number of people in inpatient beds with Covid has escalated steeply in October. Gov.uk
The number of people in inpatient beds with Covid has escalated steeply in October. Gov.uk

The warning wasn't lost on Mr Johnson who said that "the risk is for the first time in our lives, the NHS will not be there for us and our families".

The corollary of more hospitalisations is more deaths.

"Unless we act we could see deaths in this country running at several thousands a day," said the prime minister.

This chart shows that whilst Covid deaths are yet to come close the levels seen during the first wave of the virus, they are beginning to sneak up with the North West the most adversely affected.

North West is where Covid deaths are rising most. Gov.uk
North West is where Covid deaths are rising most. Gov.uk

Whether the second lockdown will be sufficient to stall the rise in fatalities remains to be seen. Mr Johnson did finish on a more sanguine note, saying he was "optimistic this will feel very different and better by spring".

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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer