ISIS has spent the last year seeking to regenerate. In this four-part special, The National investigates how the extremist group has gained a foothold in Africa, explores its use of obscure social media platforms, and reveals its profiteering from elephant poaching and the gems trade. Here, Thomas Harding analyses ISIS's strategy for global growth.
This time next year a new scenario could confront global leaders – the appearance of not one ISIS-held bastion but many.
Numerous ungoverned spaces in a world made more chaotic by the ravages of Covid-19 are not unlikely. That a swathe could have succumbed to the cruel discipline and warped ideology of ISIS is something increasingly in its grasp.
The list of vulnerable states includes some familiar and some new names: Mozambique, Democratic Republic of Congo and Afghanistan are already contending with ISIS insurgencies.
As rich countries cope with domestic economic woes, its hard to believe there would be much appetite to turn the tide.
An investigation into the terror group by The National is that it has embarked on a strategy of global growth after dispersal as it lost territory in Iraq and Syria. The last bastion in Syria fell last year but there and elsewhere it is resurgent again.
"You've got examples on three different continents that its groups are demonstrating a high level of effectiveness and resilience on the battlefield
There is increased coordination from the centre. Its calls for 10 day-long ‘Raids of Attrition’ show an organising principle at work.
Its leaders instigate attacks in Africa, the Middle East and East Asia. “You've got examples on three different continents that its groups are demonstrating a high level of effectiveness and resilience on the battlefield,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a terrorism specialist at the Royal United Services Institute.
“One of the fundamental issues that underpins why ISIS is able to thrive is anger at the local government,” said Mr Pantucci.
“At a certain point, these conflicts develop a kind of momentum of their own because revenge becomes a motive and that gives the space in which an adept group like ISIS can take advantage of and operate within, really making a statement.”
Dr Francesco Milan, of King’s College London, calls ISIS a “predatory organisation” that pounces on favourable conditions to seize opportunities to expand .
“These conditions have to do with local instability and weak governance, coupled with access to weapons, financial resources, and manpower. Once these staples are in place, ISIS can escalate its actions.”
Although lockdown saw fewer ISIS attacks earlier in the year, the Covid-19 pandemic has seen a reduction of American and British-dominated coalition security operations, resulting in "vital breathing space once more".
“As the Covid crisis has created immense socio-economic and governance problems, ISIS-affiliated groups have also stepped up their game in other continents – particularly so in parts of Africa.
Attacks in Western and Central Africa have increased in number and significance, with the Sahel and Mozambique being hit particularly hard."
Having lost the oil revenue and taxation levied on local residents, ISIS is targeting Africa's mineral wealth and has moved into money laundering and cryptocurrencies, according to Dr Milan.
In August, the US Treasury seized $2m of cryptocurrencies from ISIS and Al Qaeda accounts, but it is estimated the group has a treasury of as much as $200 million hidden in various pots.
Covid’s international travel difficulties have hampered recruitment. The battle losses have taken away ‘landmark’ territory for recruits to assemble.
Military analysts now believe that the number of ISIS extremists that remain in Iraq and Syria is 10,000 while there is a large contingent of 3,500 in West Africa and 1,000 in the centre and east of the country.
Unseen operations, as well as the G5 French-led coalition in the Sahel and the Global Coalition in Iraq and Syria, continue to combat the re-emergence of the group.
The ability to cut off the group as it reappears in different places is being degraded.
If the coalition operations fail, are discontinued or the problem becomes too large for them to contain, the world could once again see ISIS raising its flag and posing a challenge too big to ignore.
What is dialysis?
Dialysis is a way of cleaning your blood when your kidneys fail and can no longer do the job.
It gets rid of your body's wastes, extra salt and water, and helps to control your blood pressure. The main cause of kidney failure is diabetes and hypertension.
There are two kinds of dialysis — haemodialysis and peritoneal.
In haemodialysis, blood is pumped out of your body to an artificial kidney machine that filter your blood and returns it to your body by tubes.
In peritoneal dialysis, the inside lining of your own belly acts as a natural filter. Wastes are taken out by means of a cleansing fluid which is washed in and out of your belly in cycles.
It isn’t an option for everyone but if eligible, can be done at home by the patient or caregiver. This, as opposed to home haemodialysis, is covered by insurance in the UAE.
INFO
ICC T20 Rankings
1. India - 270 ranking points
2. England - 265 points
3. Pakistan - 261 points
4. South Africa - 253 points
5. Australia - 251 points
6. New Zealand - 250 points
7. West Indies - 240 points
8. Bangladesh - 233 points
9. Sri Lanka - 230 points
10. Afghanistan - 226 points
Student Of The Year 2
Director: Punit Malhotra
Stars: Tiger Shroff, Tara Sutaria, Ananya Pandey, Aditya Seal
1.5 stars
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
LIVERPOOL SQUAD
Alisson Becker, Virgil van Dijk, Georginio Wijnaldum, James Milner, Naby Keita, Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane, Mohamed Salah, Joe Gomez, Adrian, Jordan Henderson, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Adam Lallana, Andy Lonergan, Xherdan Shaqiri, Andy Robertson, Divock Origi, Curtis Jones, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Neco Williams
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
LEADERBOARD
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if you go
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Seoul from Dh3,775 return, including taxes
The package
Ski Safari offers a seven-night ski package to Korea, including five nights at the Dragon Valley Hotel in Yongpyong and two nights at Seoul CenterMark hotel, from £720 (Dh3,488) per person, including transfers, based on two travelling in January
The info
Visit www.gokorea.co.uk
The specs: 2018 Renault Megane
Price, base / as tested Dh52,900 / Dh59,200
Engine 1.6L in-line four-cylinder
Transmission Continuously variable transmission
Power 115hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 156Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.6L / 100km
57%20Seconds
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rusty%20Cundieff%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJosh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Morgan%20Freeman%2C%20Greg%20Germann%2C%20Lovie%20Simone%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
3%20Body%20Problem
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreators%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20David%20Benioff%2C%20D%20B%20Weiss%2C%20Alexander%20Woo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBenedict%20Wong%2C%20Jess%20Hong%2C%20Jovan%20Adepo%2C%20Eiza%20Gonzalez%2C%20John%20Bradley%2C%20Alex%20Sharp%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.9-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E353hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E500Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh408%2C200%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
