Syrian rebels and activists are warning that an Al Qaeda-linked jihadi group is on the verge of snuffing out what remains of the country's uprising in northwestern Syria, after the extremists seized control of the opposition-held regional capital, Idlib, last weekend.
With the jihadis cementing their authority over the city and its province, also called Idlib, Syrian president Bashar Al Assad has been supplied with a useful pretext for a long-expected assault against the rebellious province: that the uprising against him is largely driven by Islamists and terrorists.
"There is the real possibility that because of [Jabhat Al] Nusra's domination, the regime will enter the area with international approval," said Lt Col Fares Bayoush, a longtime opponent of Mr Assad, who has been leading a rebel faction in north Syria.
Jabhat Al Nusra is one of the many names for the Al Qaeda-affiliate that now heads the mighty Hayat Tahrir Al Sham militant group — Arabic for Levant Liberation Committee — that seized the city of Idlib, as well as two border crossings with Turkey to feed its coffers.
In July last year, Jabhat Al Nusra changed its name to Jabhat Fatah Al Sham and said it was cutting all its links with Al Qaeda, a move seen by many as an attempt to improve its image and market itself as a faction defending the Syrian people.
It abides by a deeply conservative code for ethics and jurisprudence and tolerates no dissent — leading many who live under its rule to complain they are no better than the government they sought to overthrow in 2011.
The fresh gains by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham in northern Syria come at a time when ISIL is suffering defeats at the hands of Iraqi and Syrian forces as well as US-backed Kurdish-led fighters in northern Syria.
In Idlib demonstrations last week, the group's members shot at protesters waving the tri-colour flag of the Syrian uprising. Hayat Tahrir Al Sham will only accept their own, jihadi-inspired black flags to be flown in their presence.
"Any party that tries to confront Hayat Tahrir Al Sham will be crushed," said an activist based in northwest Syria.
"This is a big blow for the Syrian revolution. Bashar will look like he is fighting terrorism," the activist said, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals by the Hayat Tahrir Al Sham.
With its previous incarnations, Hayat Tahrir Al Sham has long been the top dog in Idlib province but the putsch has had the effect of making it feel official. In recent weeks, the group deployed masked gunmen and carried out raids in search operations for alleged ISIL members.
Hayat Tahrir Al Sham deployed across Idlib city last weekend after a rival faction, the ultraconservative Ahrar Al Sham group, withdrew. Five days of clashes around the province left 77 fighters and 15 civilians dead, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group.
Other factions, including many once financed and armed in part by the CIA, kept to the sidelines. They are hoping to win a share of the revenues from the lucrative Bab Al Hawa border crossing, said a Turkey-based opposition activist who liaises with Syrian rebels and their state sponsors. He asked for anonymity so as not to jeopardise his position.
That crossing used to bring Ahrar Al Sham over $1 million (Dh3.67m) in revenues a month, according to a senior Ahrar Al Sham official, who also asked for anonymity for the same reason. The group will now have to share those revenues with Hayat Tahrir Al Sham after forfeiting its monopoly over it to a "civilian administration" forced in by the extremists.
Hayat Tahrir Al Sham also seized Sarmada — the first town after the Bab Al Hawa crossing and an important trade hub in north Idlib — and Khirbet Al Jouz, home to a second, less important crossing with Turkey.
"Ahrar Al Sham no longer has a real on-the-ground presence in Idlib province. It's over," said the Observatory's chief, Rami Abdurrahman.
Hayat Tahrir Al Sham and Ahrar Al Sham have long been at odds over Idlib, but the rout last week nevertheless carried a hint of betrayal, as the two sides fought side by side in 2015 to throw the government out of the province once and for all. Armed with anti-tank missiles supplied to supporting moderate opposition forces, some of which ended up in the hands of Jabhat Al Nusra, the coalition's advantage was so great that Mr Assad conceded, for the first time in the war, that he might not be able to retain control over all of Syria.
But Russia intervened with a bruising aerial campaign that drove the rebels and insurgents back on all fronts. Further infighting between the factions has all but doomed any hopes of rebels reaching the Syrian capital, Damascus.
Mr Assad, who has long eyed Idlib province since he lost it, will be further emboldened by a White House decision to halt the CIA supply-and-equip programme for Syrian rebels. It was first reported by the Washington Post last week.
Opposition activists saw it as an acknowledgement that Hayat Tahrir Al Sham was exploiting its position in northwestern Syria to pilfer weapons from vetted opposition groups.
"It means Hayat Tahrir Al Sham will have less access to arms," said the Turkey-based opposition activist.
But it is also a sign of growing closeness between the White House and the Kremlin over Syria.
Russia, a strong backer of Mr Assad, had long pushed the US to end the programme. And US secretary of state Rex Tillerson was reported to have told UN secretary general Antonio Guterres earlier this month that the US was leaving "Syria's fate in Russia's hands now", according to Foreign Policy magazine.
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
The Two Popes
Director: Fernando Meirelles
Stars: Anthony Hopkins, Jonathan Pryce
Four out of five stars
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
The language of diplomacy in 1853
Treaty of Peace in Perpetuity Agreed Upon by the Chiefs of the Arabian Coast on Behalf of Themselves, Their Heirs and Successors Under the Mediation of the Resident of the Persian Gulf, 1853
(This treaty gave the region the name “Trucial States”.)
We, whose seals are hereunto affixed, Sheikh Sultan bin Suggar, Chief of Rassool-Kheimah, Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon, Chief of Aboo Dhebbee, Sheikh Saeed bin Buyte, Chief of Debay, Sheikh Hamid bin Rashed, Chief of Ejman, Sheikh Abdoola bin Rashed, Chief of Umm-ool-Keiweyn, having experienced for a series of years the benefits and advantages resulting from a maritime truce contracted amongst ourselves under the mediation of the Resident in the Persian Gulf and renewed from time to time up to the present period, and being fully impressed, therefore, with a sense of evil consequence formerly arising, from the prosecution of our feuds at sea, whereby our subjects and dependants were prevented from carrying on the pearl fishery in security, and were exposed to interruption and molestation when passing on their lawful occasions, accordingly, we, as aforesaid have determined, for ourselves, our heirs and successors, to conclude together a lasting and inviolable peace from this time forth in perpetuity.
Taken from Britain and Saudi Arabia, 1925-1939: the Imperial Oasis, by Clive Leatherdale
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
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%3Cp%3ESixteen%20boys%20and%2015%20girls%20have%20gone%20on%20from%20Go-Pro%20Academy%20in%20Dubai%20to%20either%20professional%20contracts%20abroad%20or%20scholarships%20in%20the%20United%20States.%20Here%20are%20two%20of%20the%20most%20prominent.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeorgia%20Gibson%20(Newcastle%20United)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20reason%20the%20academy%20in%20Dubai%20first%20set%20up%20a%20girls%E2%80%99%20programme%20was%20to%20help%20Gibson%20reach%20her%20potential.%20Now%20she%20plays%20professionally%20for%20Newcastle%20United%20in%20the%20UK.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMackenzie%20Hunt%20(Everton)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EAttended%20DESS%20in%20Dubai%2C%20before%20heading%20to%20the%20UK%20to%20join%20Everton%20full%20time%20as%20a%20teenager.%20He%20was%20on%20the%20bench%20for%20the%20first%20team%20as%20recently%20as%20their%20fixture%20against%20Brighton%20on%20February%2024.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
