A deal between Russia and Turkey to create a “demilitarised zone” on the borders of Idlib may have avoided a bloody showdown endangering nearly three million civilians. But while it may grant a temporary reprieve for residents of the northern province, potential spoilers lie ahead.
The deal will see the creation of a buffer zone some 15 to 20 kilometres deep around the frontlines of Idlib, patrolled by Russian and Turkish troops. "Radical" rebel groups who currently occupy those areas will be forced to withdraw deeper into the province.
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Read more:
Breaking: Missile attacks from sea target Syrian city Latakia
Turkey's pressure trumped western threats in averting Idlib onslaught
Russia and Turkey agree to create buffer zone in Syria's Idlib
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Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the move would “prevent a humanitarian tragedy” following four hours of talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
After living under the threat of a government assault for weeks, the news was greeted with relief by residents of Idlib.
“I feel very happy tonight because the situation here did not allow for a disaster like that to happen,” said Qusay Noor, speaking from the town of Mara Al Nu’man. “People are relieved. They will have some time to get their bearings.”
The agreement solves some immediate problems for both Russia and Turkey. Moscow was keen to halt drone attacks against its Hmeimim base in Latakia, which a buffer zone will go some way to achieving. Turkey, which backs a number of rebel groups in the province and has a dozen military observation posts scattered around its edges, aimed to delay a government attack to give it more time to deal with radical groups in Idlib and prevent another wave of refugees heading to its border.
The Syrian state news agency said the government “welcomed any initiative that stops bloodshed and contributes to reestablishing security and stability,” but the deal is something of a setback for Damascus, which has repeatedly expressed a desire to recapture all of the province as quickly as possible.
It was not all bad news, however. The agreement also states that the M4 and M5 highways that run through the province will be opened to traffic by the year’s end – which was a key aim of the planned government offensive.
At the very least, a potential humanitarian disaster has been delayed. But the deal also adds another layer of complexity to a volatile area that has seen similar deals reneged upon in the past.
The announcement of de-escalation zones in Idlib and other parts of the country in May last year was followed by a sharp uptick in government airstrikes over the next few months, which caused massive civilian casualties and saw medical facilities targeted.
“Even before the ink is dry on the deal, spoilers will be plotting to undermine it,” said Kristyan Benedict, Amnesty International UK Crisis Campaigns Manager. “These include figures within Assad’s regime ... and extremist armed groups seeking to impose their own authoritarian will on the region.”
He continued: “Russia also has form in breaking agreements it has entered into, including numerous attacks on civilians in so-called de-escalation zones. We’ll see in the days ahead if Russia and Turkey do have the power to ensure civilians are protected or if it is yet another false start undermined by competing warlords.”
One of the biggest potential spoilers is the very group that Russia and Syria were keenest to confront militarily – the former Al Qaeda-affiliated Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), an extremist rebel group of some 10,000 fighters that controls around two thirds of Idlib.
The group has spoken out vehemently against any cooperation with Turkey in public, and vowed to fight to the death rather than give up its weapons. But Ankara has sought to pressure the group to submit to its direction. This deal is likely to do just that, according to Charles Lister, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute.
"The introduction of a so-called demilitarised zone – this actually looks more like a 'de-extremist zone' – places a great deal of extra pressure on HTS to abide by something that it'll find extremely hard to justify internally," he told The National.
“This undoubtedly raises the likelihood of HTS breaking apart into multiple sub-factions, with some willing to abide by the agreement and others who will refuse and insist on resisting.”
How HTS reacts will be key to the survival of the agreement. One official from the group posted a message on Telegram that suggested it would resist attempts to disarm.
“Whoever asks you to surrender your weapon, he deserves most to be fought, ahead of others,” wrote Abu Al Yaqadhan Al Masri, according to a translation by Sam Heller, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.
“The coming days are pregnant with surprises, so prepare for epic battles,” he added.
However, Turkish-backed rebels welcomed the move. “It buries Assad's dreams of imposing his full control over Syria," Mustafa Sejari, a Free Syria Army official, told Reuters.
Beyond the immediate changes on the ground, Russia has scored a diplomatic victory by striking a deal with Turkey, one which avoids damaging an important strategic relationship with Ankara, while achieving its own aims in Syria.
“Russia doesn’t like the rebels and they want to help Assad lock down his victory, but they also have strong incentives to continue courting the Turks,” said Aron Lund, a fellow with The Century Foundation think tank.
“Syria is just a small part of what Putin cares about. If he can just make the Syrian conflict quiet and unthreatening with Assad still in power, then that’s great. Then Russia has won the war, more or less.”
Abdulkafi Alhamdo, a 32-year-old teacher living in the eastern countryside of Idlib, told The National he had mixed emotions about the deal.
“After seven years, if we trusted anyone we would be fools. Whenever we trust anyone they trick us,” said Mr Alhamdo, who lived through the siege of Aleppo before arriving in Idlib.
He added that he was “so happy, and so sad” about the deal, because it left them in a state of limbo.
“People might be able to live again. Children might know there is tomorrow without planes. But we are still in nowhere. Refugees forever.”
England squads for Test and T20 series against New Zealand
Test squad: Joe Root (capt), Jofra Archer, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Zak Crawley, Sam Curran, Joe Denly, Jack Leach, Saqib Mahmood, Matthew Parkinson, Ollie Pope, Dominic Sibley, Ben Stokes, Chris Woakes
T20 squad: Eoin Morgan (capt), Jonny Bairstow, Tom Banton, Sam Billings, Pat Brown, Sam Curran, Tom Curran, Joe Denly, Lewis Gregory, Chris Jordan, Saqib Mahmood, Dawid Malan, Matt Parkinson, Adil Rashid, James Vince
The Two Popes
Director: Fernando Meirelles
Stars: Anthony Hopkins, Jonathan Pryce
Four out of five stars
Stamp duty timeline
December 2014: Former UK finance minister George Osbourne reforms stamp duty, replacing the slab system with a blended rate scheme, with the top rate increasing to 12 per cent from 10 per cent:
Up to £125,000 - 0%; £125,000 to £250,000 – 2%; £250,000 to £925,000 – 5%; £925,000 to £1.5m: 10%; Over £1.5m – 12%
April 2016: New 3% surcharge applied to any buy-to-let properties or additional homes purchased.
July 2020: Rishi Sunak unveils SDLT holiday, with no tax to pay on the first £500,000, with buyers saving up to £15,000.
March 2021: Mr Sunak decides the fate of SDLT holiday at his March 3 budget, with expectations he will extend the perk unti June.
April 2021: 2% SDLT surcharge added to property transactions made by overseas buyers.
Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
Penguin Press
Credits
Produced by: Colour Yellow Productions and Eros Now
Director: Mudassar Aziz
Cast: Sonakshi Sinha, Jimmy Sheirgill, Jassi Gill, Piyush Mishra, Diana Penty, Aparshakti Khurrana
Star rating: 2.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
World Cup final
Who: France v Croatia
When: Sunday, July 15, 7pm (UAE)
TV: Game will be shown live on BeIN Sports for viewers in the Mena region
The specs: 2019 Subaru Forester
Price, base: Dh105,900 (Premium); Dh115,900 (Sport)
Engine: 2.5-litre four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 182hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 239Nm @ 4,400rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.1L / 100km (estimated)
MATCH INFO
Qalandars 112-4 (10 ovs)
Banton 53 no
Northern Warriors 46 all out (9 ovs)
Kumara 3-10, Garton 3-10, Jordan 2-2, Prasanna 2-7
Qalandars win by six wickets
ARM%20IPO%20DETAILS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EShare%20price%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Undisclosed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ETarget%20raise%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%248%20billion%20to%20%2410%20billion%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProjected%20valuation%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2460%20billion%20to%20%2470%20billion%20(Source%3A%20Bloomberg)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELead%20underwriters%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Barclays%2C%20Goldman%20Sachs%20Group%2C%20JPMorgan%20Chase%20and%20Mizuho%20Financial%20Group%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Thanksgiving meals to try
World Cut Steakhouse, Habtoor Palace Hotel, Dubai. On Thursday evening, head chef Diego Solis will be serving a high-end sounding four-course meal that features chestnut veloute with smoked duck breast, turkey roulade accompanied by winter vegetables and foie gras and pecan pie, cranberry compote and popcorn ice cream.
Jones the Grocer, various locations across the UAE. Jones’s take-home holiday menu delivers on the favourites: whole roast turkeys, an array of accompaniments (duck fat roast potatoes, sausages wrapped in beef bacon, honey-glazed parsnips and carrots) and more, as well as festive food platters, canapes and both apple and pumpkin pies.
Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, The Address Hotel, Dubai. This New Orleans-style restaurant is keen to take the stress out of entertaining, so until December 25 you can order a full seasonal meal from its Takeaway Turkey Feast menu, which features turkey, homemade gravy and a selection of sides – think green beans with almond flakes, roasted Brussels sprouts, sweet potato casserole and bread stuffing – to pick up and eat at home.
The Mattar Farm Kitchen, Dubai. From now until Christmas, Hattem Mattar and his team will be producing game- changing smoked turkeys that you can enjoy at home over the festive period.
Nolu’s, The Galleria Mall, Maryah Island Abu Dhabi. With much of the menu focused on a California inspired “farm to table” approach (with Afghani influence), it only seems right that Nolu’s will be serving their take on the Thanksgiving spread, with a brunch at the Downtown location from 12pm to 4pm on Friday.
THE TWIN BIO
Their favourite city: Dubai
Their favourite food: Khaleeji
Their favourite past-time : walking on the beach
Their favorite quote: ‘we rise by lifting others’ by Robert Ingersoll
Cultural fiesta
What: The Al Burda Festival
When: November 14 (from 10am)
Where: Warehouse421, Abu Dhabi
The Al Burda Festival is a celebration of Islamic art and culture, featuring talks, performances and exhibitions. Organised by the Ministry of Culture and Knowledge Development, this one-day event opens with a session on the future of Islamic art. With this in mind, it is followed by a number of workshops and “masterclass” sessions in everything from calligraphy and typography to geometry and the origins of Islamic design. There will also be discussions on subjects including ‘Who is the Audience for Islamic Art?’ and ‘New Markets for Islamic Design.’ A live performance from Kuwaiti guitarist Yousif Yaseen should be one of the highlights of the day.
Results
1. New Zealand Daniel Meech – Fine (name of horse), Richard Gardner – Calisto, Bruce Goodin - Backatorps Danny V, Samantha McIntosh – Check In. Team total First round: 200.22; Second round: 201.75 – Penalties 12 (jump-off 40.16 seconds) Prize €64,000
2. Ireland Cameron Hanley – Aiyetoro, David Simpson – Keoki, Paul Kennedy – Cartown Danger Mouse, Shane Breen – Laith. Team total 200.25/202.84 – P 12 (jump-off 51.79 – P17) Prize €40,000
3. Italy Luca Maria Moneta – Connery, Luca Coata – Crandessa, Simone Coata – Dardonge, Natale Chiaudani – Almero. Team total 130.82/198.-4 – P20. Prize €32,000
Abaya trends
The utilitarian robe held dear by Arab women is undergoing a change that reveals it as an elegant and graceful garment available in a range of colours and fabrics, while retaining its traditional appeal.
2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Regional Qualifier
The top three teams progress to the Asia Qualifier
Final: UAE beat Qatar by nine wickets
Third-place play-off: Kuwait beat Saudi Arabia by five runs
Table
1 UAE 5 5 0 10
2 Qatar 5 4 1 8
3 Saudi 5 3 2 6
4 Kuwait 5 2 3 4
5 Bahrain 5 1 4 2
6 Maldives 5 0 5 0
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Thursday (All UAE kick-off times)
Sevilla v Real Betis (midnight)
Friday
Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)
Valencia v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)
Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)
Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)
Sunday
Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)
Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)
Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)
