Iraq’s economic political and health crises will likely create an opening for an increase in ISIS attacks but the group will fall short of making a solid resurgence, experts say.
Baghdad is currently focused on dealing with an outbreak of the coronavirus as well as a decline in oil prices and a crumbling political infrastructure.
But ISIS sleeper cells have stepped up ambushes and terror attacks across northern Iraq in recent weeks, killing and wounding security forces.
"ISIS has experience in taking advantage of weaknesses in Iraq's security and the current conditions in northern Iraq with lockdowns mean rural security can be exploited by small cells," Sajad Jiyad, a Baghdad-based analyst told The National.
ISIS ambushed Iraqi security forces along with members of the Hashed Al Shaabi, known as the popular mobilisation forces, in the northern city of Kirkuk on Tuesday.
The forces were carrying out a search operation for four intelligence personnel that had been kidnapped by the group a day earlier.
The aim of the militants is “to degrade state control and instil a sense of fear among populations who have long worried about the resurgence of ISIS,” Mr Jiyad said.
Following the attacks, Iraq’s Defence Minister, Najah Al Shammari, ordered all military personnel to intensify their efforts in curbing the group’s sleeper cells on Tuesday.
The operation will be to gather intelligence information and to conduct strikes on positions where the insurgents may be hiding.
The insurgents want to take advantage of the global focus on the coronavirus pandemic and the shifting of security attention and resources towards it, Aymenn Al Timimi, an analyst who tracks ISIS, told The National.
“But I don’t see a comeback resulting from it,” Mr Al Timimi said.
Some members of the Global Coalition to combat ISIS have already announced that they will pull troops out of Iraq due to fears of a Covid-19 spread.
Experts believe the terror group is exploiting the re-positioning of the US-led coalition military presence after the killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and the calls to remove all foreign troops from Iraq.
“This comes at a time when US priorities in Iraq are already shifting away from the fight against ISIS and more towards countering Iran,” said Fanar Haddad, senior research fellow of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore,
“It is worth remembering, ISIS are no less vulnerable to Covid-19 than the rest of us,” Mr Haddad said.
The pandemic does not yet threaten systemic collapse in Iraq, Mr Haddad continued, adding that “regional and international dynamics remain unfavourable for an ISIS resurgence.”
A US-led mission to eliminate ISIS from the region was established in 2014 after the group overran large swathes of northern and western Iraq and proclaimed the creation of a "caliphate”.
Iraqi forces and their international partners managed to beat back ISIS and declare military victory in 2017, although the group has continued to launch attacks across the country.
Preventing the group’s resurgence will depend on continuing international cooperation and avoiding new conflicts that could further destabilise the country.
The counter-terrorism challenge facing Iraq will be difficult, Mr Jiyad said, adding that “ISIS still retains dozens of cells across Iraq with access to weapons, funds, tunnels and safe houses.”
The US-led coalition will continue to apply pressure on its remnants to prevent a resurgence, Marine Captain, Mathew "Tex" Morris, spokesperson for the US-led mission in Iraq and Syria told The National.
"Due to the tremendous sacrifice, strength, and success of the Iraqi Security Forces, Syrian Democratic Forces, and Coalition personnel – and as a measure of our collective success – we have reached a point in the campaign where our partners are taking the fight to the remnants of ISIS independently and preventing an ISIS resurgence,” Marine Captain Morris said.
Washington is expected to hold a strategic dialogue with Baghdad in June to review their military and economic relations.
"It’s important that our two governments work together to stop any reversal of the gains we’ve made in our efforts to defeat ISIS and stabilise the country," US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, said in a statement last week.
The talks will be based on the future of US troops stationed in the country after they faced a series of attacks by Iranian-backed armed factions.
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
THE SPECS
Engine: 3-litre V6
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 424hp
Torque: 580 Nm
Price: From Dh399,000
On sale: Now
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Chef Nobu's advice for eating sushi
“One mistake people always make is adding extra wasabi. There is no need for this, because it should already be there between the rice and the fish.
“When eating nigiri, you must dip the fish – not the rice – in soy sauce, otherwise the rice will collapse. Also, don’t use too much soy sauce or it will make you thirsty. For sushi rolls, dip a little of the rice-covered roll lightly in soy sauce and eat in one bite.
“Chopsticks are acceptable, but really, I recommend using your fingers for sushi. Do use chopsticks for sashimi, though.
“The ginger should be eaten separately as a palette cleanser and used to clear the mouth when switching between different pieces of fish.”
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Museum of the Future in numbers
- 78 metres is the height of the museum
- 30,000 square metres is its total area
- 17,000 square metres is the length of the stainless steel facade
- 14 kilometres is the length of LED lights used on the facade
- 1,024 individual pieces make up the exterior
- 7 floors in all, with one for administrative offices
- 2,400 diagonally intersecting steel members frame the torus shape
- 100 species of trees and plants dot the gardens
- Dh145 is the price of a ticket
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Day 1 results:
Open Men (bonus points in brackets)
New Zealand 125 (1) beat UAE 111 (3)
India 111 (4) beat Singapore 75 (0)
South Africa 66 (2) beat Sri Lanka 57 (2)
Australia 126 (4) beat Malaysia -16 (0)
Open Women
New Zealand 64 (2) beat South Africa 57 (2)
England 69 (3) beat UAE 63 (1)
Australia 124 (4) beat UAE 23 (0)
New Zealand 74 (2) beat England 55 (2)
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last-16, second leg (first-leg scores in brackets):
PSG (2) v Manchester United (0)
Midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports
