The Samarra terror attack in February 2006 sparked more than a year of sectarian violence that threatened to rip Iraq apart.
Last month violence erupted between troops and demonstrators in the northern town of Hawija. Many now ask if history is about to repeat itself.
There is certainly much to worry about. Violence increased after Hawija, with more bombings and firefights between security forces and armed opposition groups.
There also seems to be a qualitative shift in political rhetoric. Sunni Arabs of western Iraq are today more prepared than ever to talk about creating their own federal region or regions. They also are spending far more time courting regional powers such as Turkey and Qatar than talking to the Shiite-led government in Baghdad.
With the tense situation in Syria polarising the whole region along sectarian lines, it is no exaggeration to say that the political problems in Iraq may be at their most acute since the tumultuous civil war period between 2005 and 2007.
At the same time, it is important to take notice of the factors that continue to make the situation in Iraq quite different from what the Balkans experienced in the 1990s, and to avoid rushing to conclusions about partition fixes for political problems for which non-territorial solutions may provide more sustainable arrangements.
For example, it seems significant that the Iraqi army soldiers that have been killed during the latest uptick of violence come from all parts of the Iraqi population and do not represent any particular sect. As an institution, the Iraqi army is vastly stronger today than it was in 2006. Similarly, in the Sunni areas that have seen the most marked change of political rhetoric, a considerable number of moderate politicians continue to urge against violent protest and often speak against the most radical political solutions, such as federalism.
Without making light of Iraq's current problems, it seems prudent to take into account the degree to which our perception of the situation there is - to some extent - the result of punditry by people who have promised mayhem ever since the early days of the Iraq War, and who came to life again with the recent 10th anniversary of the US-led invasion after having had relatively little to write about during the past few years.
Many of the western and Arab critical comments on Iraq converge with respect to attacks on prime minister Nouri Al Maliki and his centralisation of power. This is a time-honoured theme that materialised when Mr Maliki had managed to reestablish a sense of order and security in Iraq in 2008 following years of upheaval. Less attention seems to be given to the question of what the alternative to Mr Al Maliki would be, and whether a return to pre-2008 conditions is really what Iraq and the region needs. Change Mr Al Maliki and everything will be wonderful - as it was in, well, 2005?
Particularly important seems the fact that the Shiite competitors to Mr Al Maliki with whom secularists, Sunnis and Kurds like to flirt are in fact often the ones that push him to make the very decisions to which the opposition takes exception - including unpopular moves in sensitive areas of national reconciliation such as de-Baathification of officials of the Saddam Hussein regime.
Mr Al Maliki's ability to maintain some ties with Sunnis and secularists even in times of crisis is also noteworthy. Amid the recent escalation, the Sunni agriculture minister returned to cabinet whereas an emergency session of parliament designed as an anti-Maliki demonstration failed to attract more than 141 deputies, quite despite the presence of some Shiites including Sadrists. That is significantly less than the 163 MPs needed to depose him.
Perhaps critics of Mr Al Maliki should wait to see how the formation of new provincial councils across the Shiite-majority parts of southern Iraq will shape up over coming weeks and months. In many of those places, Mr Al Maliki is in intense competition with challengers from other Shiite Islamist parties. Recently, Mr Al Maliki has for the first time also indicated preparedness to accept federalism in Sunni areas if legal procedure is adhered to - apparently a conciliatory move that could prompt a more open debate about what the priorities of citizens of those areas really are. It is far from clear that federalism is universally espoused among the Sunnis of northwestern Iraq.
Ironically, in the midst of the deteriorating security situation, local elections in the two Sunni governorates bordering Syria that had been postponed until July because of security problems have actually been moved forward again, this time to June 20. These elections are by their very nature intra-Sunni competitions and, hopefully, they will play out as contests about the provision of local services rather than competitions in Sunnism.
The people of Anbar have chosen pragmatism over extremism before, not least when they expelled Al Qaeda from their own areas in 2006. Perhaps if they study carefully what sort of political forces speaking in the name of Sunnism have been propelled to the forefront in certain parts of Syria lately, Iraqi Sunnis may once more choose pragmatism at the ballot box.
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
twitter: For breaking news from the Gulf, the Middle East and around the globe follow The National World. Follow us
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Price, base: Dh228,000 / Dh232,000 (est)
Engine: 5.7-litre Hemi V8
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 395hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 552Nm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.5L / 100km
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ
Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm
Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Anti-semitic attacks
The annual report by the Community Security Trust, which advises the Jewish community on security , warned on Thursday that anti-Semitic incidents in Britain had reached a record high.
It found there had been 2,255 anti-Semitic incidents reported in 2021, a rise of 34 per cent from the previous year.
The report detailed the convictions of a number of people for anti-Semitic crimes, including one man who was jailed for setting up a neo-Nazi group which had encouraged “the eradication of Jewish people” and another who had posted anti-Semitic homemade videos on social media.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
WHEN TO GO:
September to November or March to May; this is when visitors are most likely to see what they’ve come for.
WHERE TO STAY:
Meghauli Serai, A Taj Safari - Chitwan National Park resort (tajhotels.com) is a one-hour drive from Bharatpur Airport with stays costing from Dh1,396 per night, including taxes and breakfast. Return airport transfers cost from Dh661.
HOW TO GET THERE:
Etihad Airways regularly flies from Abu Dhabi to Kathmandu from around Dh1,500 per person return, including taxes. Buddha Air (buddhaair.com) and Yeti Airlines (yetiairlines.com) fly from Kathmandu to Bharatpur several times a day from about Dh660 return and the flight takes just 20 minutes. Driving is possible but the roads are hilly which means it will take you five or six hours to travel 148 kilometres.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The specs
Engine: 2.9-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 540hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 600Nm at 2,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Kerb weight: 1580kg
Price: From Dh750k
On sale: via special order
How to register as a donor
1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention
2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants
3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register.
4) The campaign uses the hashtag #donate_hope
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
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Scoreline
Bournemouth 2
Wilson 70', Ibe 74'
Arsenal 1
Bellerin 52'
If you go...
Flying
There is no simple way to get to Punta Arenas from the UAE, with flights from Dubai and Abu Dhabi requiring at least two connections to reach this part of Patagonia. Flights start from about Dh6,250.
Touring
Chile Nativo offers the amended Los Dientes trek with expert guides and porters who are met in Puerto Williams on Isla Navarino. The trip starts and ends in Punta Arenas and lasts for six days in total. Prices start from Dh8,795.
Company%C2%A0profile
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How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
'Lost in Space'
Creators: Matt Sazama, Burk Sharpless, Irwin Allen
Stars: Molly Parker, Toby Stephens, Maxwell Jenkins
Rating: 4/5
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MOST%20POLLUTED%20COUNTRIES%20IN%20THE%20WORLD
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Du Plessis plans his retirement
South Africa captain Faf du Plessis said on Friday the Twenty20 World Cup in Australia in two years' time will be his last.
Du Plessis, 34, who has led his country in two World T20 campaigns, in 2014 and 2016, is keen to play a third but will then step aside.
"The T20 World Cup in 2020 is something I'm really looking forward to. I think right now that will probably be the last tournament for me," he said in Brisbane ahead of a one-off T20 against Australia on Saturday.
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Honeymoonish
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Match info
Uefa Champions League Group B
Tottenham Hotspur 1 (Eriksen 80')
Inter Milan 0
MATCH INFO
Juventus 1 (Dybala 45')
Lazio 3 (Alberto 16', Lulic 73', Cataldi 90 4')
Red card: Rodrigo Bentancur (Juventus)
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Ajax v Juventus, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match on BeIN Sports
J%20Street%20Polling%20Results
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Last-16 Europa League fixtures
Wednesday (Kick-offs UAE)
FC Copenhagen (0) v Istanbul Basaksehir (1) 8.55pm
Shakhtar Donetsk (2) v Wolfsburg (1) 8.55pm
Inter Milan v Getafe (one leg only) 11pm
Manchester United (5) v LASK (0) 11pm
Thursday
Bayer Leverkusen (3) v Rangers (1) 8.55pm
Sevilla v Roma (one leg only) 8.55pm
FC Basel (3) v Eintracht Frankfurt (0) 11pm
Wolves (1) Olympiakos (1) 11pm
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
The 10 Questions
- Is there a God?
- How did it all begin?
- What is inside a black hole?
- Can we predict the future?
- Is time travel possible?
- Will we survive on Earth?
- Is there other intelligent life in the universe?
- Should we colonise space?
- Will artificial intelligence outsmart us?
- How do we shape the future?
Five expert hiking tips
Always check the weather forecast before setting off
Make sure you have plenty of water
Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon
Wear appropriate clothing and footwear
Take your litter home with you
Company%20profile
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Scoreline
Arsenal 3
Aubameyang (28'), Welbeck (38', 81')
Red cards: El Neny (90' 3)
Southampton 2
Long (17'), Austin (73')
Red cards: Stephens (90' 2)
The major Hashd factions linked to Iran:
Badr Organisation: Seen as the most militarily capable faction in the Hashd. Iraqi Shiite exiles opposed to Saddam Hussein set up the group in Tehran in the early 1980s as the Badr Corps under the supervision of the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The militia exalts Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but intermittently cooperated with the US military.
Saraya Al Salam (Peace Brigade): Comprised of former members of the officially defunct Mahdi Army, a militia that was commanded by Iraqi cleric Moqtada Al Sadr and fought US and Iraqi government and other forces between 2004 and 2008. As part of a political overhaul aimed as casting Mr Al Sadr as a more nationalist and less sectarian figure, the cleric formed Saraya Al Salam in 2014. The group’s relations with Iran has been volatile.
Kataeb Hezbollah: The group, which is fighting on behalf of the Bashar Al Assad government in Syria, traces its origins to attacks on US forces in Iraq in 2004 and adopts a tough stance against Washington, calling the United States “the enemy of humanity”.
Asaeb Ahl Al Haq: An offshoot of the Mahdi Army active in Syria. Asaeb Ahl Al Haq’s leader Qais al Khazali was a student of Mr Al Moqtada’s late father Mohammed Sadeq Al Sadr, a prominent Shiite cleric who was killed during Saddam Hussein’s rule.
Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba: Formed in 2013 to fight alongside Mr Al Assad’s loyalists in Syria before joining the Hashd. The group is seen as among the most ideological and sectarian-driven Hashd militias in Syria and is the major recruiter of foreign fighters to Syria.
Saraya Al Khorasani: The ICRG formed Saraya Al Khorasani in the mid-1990s and the group is seen as the most ideologically attached to Iran among Tehran’s satellites in Iraq.
(Source: The Wilson Centre, the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation)
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder MHEV
Power: 360bhp
Torque: 500Nm
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Price: from Dh282,870
On sale: now
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
