Iran is expected to accept the framework of a United Nations-sponsored plan aimed at defusing the nuclear crisis today, but has signalled it wants unspecified "modifications" that western officials are concerned might undermine it completely.
How significant the changes are and how determined Iran is in pressing them could have far-reaching and potentially destabilising ramifications for the region and beyond.
Under the plan, negotiated during turbulent talks last week in Vienna between Iran, the United States, Russia and France, Tehran would send abroad 1,200kg of its low-enriched uranium (LEU), about 75 per cent of its stockpile. Russia would enrich it further before sending it to France for conversion into fuel plates that Iran would use in a medical research reactor.
The vital confidence-building measure would delay Iran's potential to build a nuclear bomb by a year, buying time for a comprehensive settlement of the seven-year-old nuclear standoff.
There were placatory words last night from the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, who praised Iran for granting international weapons inspectors access this week to a recently revealed uranium enrichment plant near the holy city of Qom. It was a "positive step", Mr Moon said.
He also welcomed the draft agreement on the uranium transfer accord. But that is proving more problematic and is bedeviled by mutual mistrust, even though, theoretically, it should benefit all parties.
Senior officials and media in Iran say Tehran is opposed to sending most of its LEU stockpile abroad in one go, preferring instead to do so in batches. They have voiced suspicions that Iran's cherished LEU stockpile, which Tehran views as a vital strategic reserve amassed at the expense of three sets of Security Council sanctions, will never be returned. Iranian commentators in the past have even accused Russia, a nominal ally, of duplicity over delaying fuel supplies for Iran's nuclear power plant in Bushehr.
The West, in turn, is concerned that Iran will procrastinate endlessly while it presses ahead with a clandestine weaponisation programme, despite Iranian assertions its nuclear activities are solely aimed at generating electricity. France, which has taken the toughest stance among western powers, insists that Iran's uranium must be exported all at once and before the end of the year.
Iran's "final response" will be presented in Vienna today to Mohammad ElBaradei, the outgoing director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), by Iran's ambassador to the UN's nuclear monitor, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Tehran's semi-official Mehr news agency said.
Echoing earlier Iranian media reports, Mehr said Mr Soltanieh would accept the agreement's framework but propose alterations. Tehran missed an IAEA deadline last Friday to respond to the plan and senior western officials have expressed frustration at Iranian media reports that Tehran will seek "very important changes".
France's foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, accused Tehran of wasting time. "We will wait until we decide that enough is enough and that the process is exhausted. One day it will be too late," he warned this week. Separately, he told Britain's Daily Telegraph that an urgent deal was the only way to avoid any military strike against Iran by Israel, the region's sole, if undeclared, nuclear-armed state.
The European Union's foreign policy representative, Javier Solana, said the UN had offered a "good deal" that did not require "fundamental changes".
Iran would get the medium enriched fuel it needs for its medical research reactor in Tehran and no new sanctions for the time being.
Western powers will suspect that any Iranian "yes-but" response is designed to probe divisions among the permanent members of the UN Security Council. Russia, upon which Iran has relied, along with China, to dilute earlier Security Council sanctions, has urged patience. Moscow said yesterday that further sanctions against Iran are "unlikely in the near future". That assertion followed indications from Washington that President Barack Obama's administration would press for new sanctions against Tehran if it faltered on its nuclear commitments.
The Iranian regime appears divided over the uranium transfer deal. The final decision lies with Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran's Supreme National Security Council, which implements his policies, was due only last night to put the finishing touches to Tehran's response.
Iran has indicated that it will agree to export its LEU only in stages. A fresh consignment would be exported once Iran received the refined equivalent of what it had previously sent.
A staggered export, however, would be unacceptable to the West. By keeping hold of much of its LEU stockpile, Iran would retain its "breakout capacity": the ability to produce one atom bomb at short notice if it abruptly breaks out of non-proliferation treaty obligations and enriches its uranium to the 90-per-cent level required for weaponisation.
Western officials argue that because Iran is continuing to produce low-enriched uranium, it could compensate quickly for any small quantities sent overseas, retaining its strategic stockpile - and negating the whole purpose of the deal.
So-called "final responses" from Iran rarely reflect its bottom line.Tehran is expected to bargain hard over the amount of LEU it sends abroad, both to allay Iranian hardliners' deep mistrust of the West and to avoid weakening its negotiating hand in any wider talks with the international community.
Failure now would be a major setback for Mr Obama, whose policy outreach to Iran has been attacked by hawks in Washington.
"My impression is that the Obama administration wants to move fast but at the same time recognises that if they're close to a deal, taking another look is probably worth it," said Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, which promotes dialogue between Tehran and Washington.
But, referring to Iranian media reports that Tehran's acceptance of the Vienna accord will be highly qualified, he said in an interview: "It's not encouraging that the Iranians are doing this."
mtheodoulou@thenational.ae
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Pox that threatens the Middle East's native species
Camelpox
Caused by a virus related to the one that causes human smallpox, camelpox typically causes fever, swelling of lymph nodes and skin lesions in camels aged over three, but the animal usually recovers after a month or so. Younger animals may develop a more acute form that causes internal lesions and diarrhoea, and is often fatal, especially when secondary infections result. It is found across the Middle East as well as in parts of Asia, Africa, Russia and India.
Falconpox
Falconpox can cause a variety of types of lesions, which can affect, for example, the eyelids, feet and the areas above and below the beak. It is a problem among captive falcons and is one of many types of avian pox or avipox diseases that together affect dozens of bird species across the world. Among the other forms are pigeonpox, turkeypox, starlingpox and canarypox. Avipox viruses are spread by mosquitoes and direct bird-to-bird contact.
Houbarapox
Houbarapox is, like falconpox, one of the many forms of avipox diseases. It exists in various forms, with a type that causes skin lesions being least likely to result in death. Other forms cause more severe lesions, including internal lesions, and are more likely to kill the bird, often because secondary infections develop. This summer the CVRL reported an outbreak of pox in houbaras after rains in spring led to an increase in mosquito numbers.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
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The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
RESULT
Manchester City 1 Sheffield United 0
Man City: Jesus (9')
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mubadala World Tennis Championship 2018 schedule
Thursday December 27
Men's quarter-finals
Kevin Anderson v Hyeon Chung 4pm
Dominic Thiem v Karen Khachanov 6pm
Women's exhibition
Serena Williams v Venus Williams 8pm
Friday December 28
5th place play-off 3pm
Men's semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Anderson/Chung 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Thiem/Khachanov 7pm
Saturday December 29
3rd place play-off 5pm
Men's final 7pm
Best Foreign Language Film nominees
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
RESULT
Huddersfield Town 1 Manchester City 2
Huddersfield: Otamendi (45' 1 og), van La Parra (red card 90' 6)
Man City: Agüero (47' pen), Sterling (84')
Man of the match: Christopher Schindler (Huddersfield Town)
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
RESULT
Bayern Munich 0 AC Milan 4
Milan: Kessie (14'), Cutrone (25', 43'), Calhanoglu (85')
The Saga Continues
Wu-Tang Clan
(36 Chambers / Entertainment One)
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