Iran nuclear deal may be undermined by changes

Iran is expected to accept the framework of a United Nations-sponsored plan aimed at defusing the nuclear crisis today, but has signalled it wants unspecified "modifications" that western officials are concerned might undermine it completely. How significant the changes are and how determined Iran is in pressing them could have far-reaching and potentially destabilising ramifications for the region and beyond.

Under the plan, negotiated during turbulent talks last week in Vienna between Iran, the United States, Russia and France, Tehran would send abroad 1,200kg of its low-enriched uranium (LEU), about 75 per cent of its stockpile. Russia would enrich it further before sending it to France for conversion into fuel plates that Iran would use in a medical research reactor. The vital confidence-building measure would delay Iran's potential to build a nuclear bomb by a year, buying time for a comprehensive settlement of the seven-year-old nuclear standoff.

There were placatory words last night from the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, who praised Iran for granting international weapons inspectors access this week to a recently revealed uranium enrichment plant near the holy city of Qom. It was a "positive step", Mr Moon said. He also welcomed the draft agreement on the uranium transfer accord. But that is proving more problematic and is bedeviled by mutual mistrust, even though, theoretically, it should benefit all parties. Senior officials and media in Iran say Tehran is opposed to sending most of its LEU stockpile abroad in one go, preferring instead to do so in batches. They have voiced suspicions that Iran's cherished LEU stockpile, which Tehran views as a vital strategic reserve amassed at the expense of three sets of Security Council sanctions, will never be returned. Iranian commentators in the past have even accused Russia, a nominal ally, of duplicity over delaying fuel supplies for Iran's nuclear power plant in Bushehr.

The West, in turn, is concerned that Iran will procrastinate endlessly while it presses ahead with a clandestine weaponisation programme, despite Iranian assertions its nuclear activities are solely aimed at generating electricity. France, which has taken the toughest stance among western powers, insists that Iran's uranium must be exported all at once and before the end of the year. Iran's "final response" will be presented in Vienna today to Mohammad ElBaradei, the outgoing director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), by Iran's ambassador to the UN's nuclear monitor, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Tehran's semi-official Mehr news agency said.

Echoing earlier Iranian media reports, Mehr said Mr Soltanieh would accept the agreement's framework but propose alterations. Tehran missed an IAEA deadline last Friday to respond to the plan and senior western officials have expressed frustration at Iranian media reports that Tehran will seek "very important changes". France's foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, accused Tehran of wasting time. "We will wait until we decide that enough is enough and that the process is exhausted. One day it will be too late," he warned this week. Separately, he told Britain's Daily Telegraph that an urgent deal was the only way to avoid any military strike against Iran by Israel, the region's sole, if undeclared, nuclear-armed state.

The European Union's foreign policy representative, Javier Solana, said the UN had offered a "good deal" that did not require "fundamental changes". Iran would get the medium enriched fuel it needs for its medical research reactor in Tehran and no new sanctions for the time being. Western powers will suspect that any Iranian "yes-but" response is designed to probe divisions among the permanent members of the UN Security Council. Russia, upon which Iran has relied, along with China, to dilute earlier Security Council sanctions, has urged patience. Moscow said yesterday that further sanctions against Iran are "unlikely in the near future". That assertion followed indications from Washington that President Barack Obama's administration would press for new sanctions against Tehran if it faltered on its nuclear commitments.

The Iranian regime appears divided over the uranium transfer deal. The final decision lies with Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran's Supreme National Security Council, which implements his policies, was due only last night to put the finishing touches to Tehran's response. Iran has indicated that it will agree to export its LEU only in stages. A fresh consignment would be exported once Iran received the refined equivalent of what it had previously sent.

A staggered export, however, would be unacceptable to the West. By keeping hold of much of its LEU stockpile, Iran would retain its "breakout capacity": the ability to produce one atom bomb at short notice if it abruptly breaks out of non-proliferation treaty obligations and enriches its uranium to the 90-per-cent level required for weaponisation. Western officials argue that because Iran is continuing to produce low-enriched uranium, it could compensate quickly for any small quantities sent overseas, retaining its strategic stockpile - and negating the whole purpose of the deal.

So-called "final responses" from Iran rarely reflect its bottom line.Tehran is expected to bargain hard over the amount of LEU it sends abroad, both to allay Iranian hardliners' deep mistrust of the West and to avoid weakening its negotiating hand in any wider talks with the international community. Failure now would be a major setback for Mr Obama, whose policy outreach to Iran has been attacked by hawks in Washington.

"My impression is that the Obama administration wants to move fast but at the same time recognises that if they're close to a deal, taking another look is probably worth it," said Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, which promotes dialogue between Tehran and Washington. But, referring to Iranian media reports that Tehran's acceptance of the Vienna accord will be highly qualified, he said in an interview: "It's not encouraging that the Iranians are doing this."

mtheodoulou@thenational.ae