Decision-makers in the Arabian Gulf face the immediate challenge of dealing with changing US involvement in the Middle East and translating economic leverage into security gains to counter Iran.
This was the assessment of senior policy specialists from the International Institute for Security Studies at the conclusion of the Manama Forum, a main gathering organised by the institute that concluded in Bahrain on Sunday.
Deputy head Kori Schake said “anxiety” about diminished US involvement has spread in the region over the past year.
“At the same time there is a desire for (home-grown) regional solutions. Navigating the two things will be a big part of the challenge,” Ms Schake told the concluding session of the Manama Forum.
Middle East specialist Emile Hokayem said the US retrenchment can be traced to the presidency of Barack Obama. But it took a new dimension under President Donald Trump, prompting the region’s leaders to hedge their bets, said Mr Hokayem, pointing to strengthened ties with China and Russia.
“There is an understanding in the region that there are structural factors driving that. The change is how the US talks about the region, especially this extreme transactional nature of the mindset on what were pretty strong traditional relationships,” Mr Hokayem said.
He said Mr Trump has shifted “US investment in Gulf security as a global public good to a more a more transactional affair, which is shaping the fundamentals of the region.”
Gulf leaders have also reacted to the new picture by adding tools to their economic power, seeking to alter a traditional model of oil exports and goods import to making and attracting foreign investment, said John Raine, who specialises in geopolitical assessment.
Mr Raine said the diversification is a departure from “ the very comfortable geometry in the Gulf to which we have been used.” But he cautioned that it was risky.
“In the forging of international relationships that underpin these economic plans there are new security dilemmas and challenges,” Mr Raine said.
Hasan Alhasan, a fellow in the institute, pointed to recent “forays" of oil and gas investment in Asia by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
He said “these trade and investment gains” need to yield security advantages, especially after the September 14 attacks on the Saudi Aramco oil plants.
The Asian states condemned the attack, claimed by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia, “but did not want really to turn the finger at Iran,” Mr Alhasan said.
“It is a perception that the Gulf states will be trying to change,” said Mr Alhasan, a former official in the government of Bahrain.
Mr Al Hasan said the US withdrawal last year from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran has helped Tehran present itself as a victim, a narrative supported by China.
“The Asian perspective is very critical. The Asian economies are not only the major economic partners of Iran. They are primary buyers of Iranian oil including during the time of sanctions. They continue to do so usually under the table,” he said.
“Watch the security economic nexus very closely,” Mr Alhasan said. "A large portion of global economic growth depends on it”.
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
Which honey takes your fancy?
Al Ghaf Honey
The Al Ghaf tree is a local desert tree which bears the harsh summers with drought and high temperatures. From the rich flowers, bees that pollinate this tree can produce delicious red colour honey in June and July each year
Sidr Honey
The Sidr tree is an evergreen tree with long and strong forked branches. The blossom from this tree is called Yabyab, which provides rich food for bees to produce honey in October and November. This honey is the most expensive, but tastiest
Samar Honey
The Samar tree trunk, leaves and blossom contains Barm which is the secret of healing. You can enjoy the best types of honey from this tree every year in May and June. It is an historical witness to the life of the Emirati nation which represents the harsh desert and mountain environments
The Details
Kabir Singh
Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series
Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga
Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa
Rating: 2.5/5
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
