A prominent reformist cleric, who has declared his readiness to pursue a trust-building policy with the West over Iran's nuclear programme, is the first Iranian leader officially to announce his candidacy for June's vital presidential elections. Mehdi Karroubi, a former two-term parliamentary speaker and once a confidante of Ayatollah Khomeini, the father of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, is a serious figure. However, his challenge, delivered at a press conference in Tehran yesterday is unlikely to perturb the hardline incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - especially if it means that the charismatic standard-bearer of Iran's reformist movement, Mohammad Khatami, has decided against running. Given his popularity and moral authority, Mr Khatami would be a much more formidable reformist contender than Mr Karroubi. But he has yet to say whether he will again seek the post that he held between 1997 and 2005 when an unelected, hardline minority exploited its iron grip on key power centres to thwart his drive to liberalise Iranian politics and society.
Mr Khatami acknowledged last week that he was considering entering the electoral fray, but his reluctance was clear. He would do so only if he was allowed this time to fulfil the expectations of the Iranian people "for freedom, progress and justice". Mr Khatami, a mild-mannered philosopher-politician who is regarded by some as too gentlemanly for the hurly-burly of Iran's perennial power struggle, declared: "I do not want to return to power at any cost." His reaction to Mr Karroubi's candidacy is keenly awaited by Iran watchers. It will signal whether the notoriously fractious reformist camp has succeeded in uniting behind a single presidential candidate. None of Mr Ahmadinejad's potential conservative rivals has yet thrown his hat into the election ring. One of them, the powerful parliamentary speaker, Ali Larijani, told reporters on Saturday he would not run. He was Iran's chief nuclear negotiator until he resigned last year after falling out with Mr Ahmadinejad about how to handle the nuclear dispute with the West. Another is the conservative mayor of Tehran, Mohammed Qalibaf, a suave, 50-year-old technocrat. He is popular in the capital, where he once served as police chief, but is not known well in the provinces, which the president has toured widely, dispensing largesse in cash and loans. Continuing division in the demoralised reformist camp, which won just 46 of the 290 seats in April's parliamentary elections, would work to Mr Ahmadinejad's advantage. But even if Mr Khatami chooses not to run, he could yet play an influential role as kingmaker if he backs Mr Karroubi, analysts say. Despite calls for unity, Mr Karroubi, 71, obstinately refused to allow his National Confidence Party to be integrated with Mr Khatami's main reformist coalition in last spring's parliamentary elections. But yesterday he did not rule out withdrawing from the presidential race if Mr Khatami decides to enter it. "I made a proposal to other candidates to declare their candidacy, to hold their campaigns and after that we will discuss the situation and determine who is the most likely to succeed," he said. Some senior reformists suggest Mr Khatami should not run unless he is determined to stand up to the inevitably ferocious hardline opposition he would face if elected. Ironically, the more combative Mr Ahmadinejad, they point out with grudging admiration, has stood his ground firmly when confronted by hostile opposition. For example, he recently rebuffed furious calls to sack one of his senior aides who suggested Iranians were "friends with all people in the world - even Israelis". Mr Ahmadinejad, the 52-year-old son of a blacksmith, is virtually certain to seek a second four-year term and remains the firm favourite to win the election despite harsh criticism from reformists and conservatives alike over his handling of the economy. Inflation rose 1.8 percentage points in September to reach 29.4 per cent compared with 12 per cent at the time of his election, which he won with pledges to make life easier for Iran's poor. Mr Ahmadinejad's opponents also accuse him of indulging in needlessly confrontational rhetoric that has isolated Iran and exposed it to three rounds of UN sanctions over Tehran's cherished nuclear programme. "I believe Mr Ahmadinejad has failed in foreign policy and in economic problems," Mr Karroubi said yesterday. He also lashed out at the president for questioning the scale of the Holocaust: "The president has talked about this event: it has cost the country enormously and I don't understand what it has gained," he said. Iran should pursue "good relations with all countries except for Israel or at least not have any animosity", Mr Karroubi insisted. But Mr Ahmadinejad has won vital backing from the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and enjoys the support of the mighty Revolutionary Guard Corps in which he once served. Iran's hardliners also have manoeuvred deftly to head off any repeat of the surprise that brought Mr Khatami's landslide election victory in 1997. Reformists cannot even be confident that Mr Karroubi - or even Mr Khatami should he stand - will be allowed to run by Iran's hardline Council of Guardians, which vets candidates for elections and has often blocked reformists in the past. Mr Karroubi carried the reformist banner in 2005 - when he made a bizarre promise to give cheques worth US$55 (Dh202) to every Iranian if he won. He finished in third place in the first round of the elections, receiving 17 per cent of the vote, but complained bitterly that voting irregularities had robbed him of winning the contest. Mr Ahmadinejad's supporters appear confident the reformist camp still poses little challenge. Kayhan, a hardline daily newspaper that backs the president, has challenged Mr Khatami to throw his gauntlet into the election ring, suggesting this would enable the electorate to expose definitively Iran's reformers as a spent force. mtheodoulou@thenational.ae