As Turkey enters the fourth day of a military offensive into Syria, its campaign against the Kurdish-dominated enclave of Afrin has again realigned the balance of power in the region and inaugurated a new phase of crisis across the border.
Politically, it has pushed Ankara further away from Washington, as the two largest Nato armies attempt to navigate a well of mistrust that goes back years and threatens to unravel decades of close co-operation.
The roots of the Afrin crisis were planted years ago, when the uprising against Syria's strongman president Bashar Al Assad broke out. Turkey counselled Mr Al Assad to heed the demands of protesters for reforms, but when the government responded with violence instead, then prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan demanded his ouster.
Turkey threw its lot with the Syrian opposition, and called for a more forceful response from its western allies in the United States and Europe, drawing up plans for a no-fly zone to ground the Syrian president's air force. But then US president Barack Obama was ambivalent, drawing instead a red line in which Washington would change its calculus only if the Syrian government were to use chemical weapons.
After the 2013 Ghouta chemical attack, that promise was not fulfilled. But the US did intervene in 2014 when ISIL surged into Iraq and conquered vast swathes of Syria, creating a coalition to battle the terror group. It was then that the cracks in the US-Turkey relationship widened.
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Read more:
Erdogan says 'no step back' in operation against Kurds in Syria
Turkey alerted US before Syria operation, Mattis says
Editorial: Turkey is deploying anti-terror rhetoric to settle old scores against the Kurds
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America's chosen partner on the ground was the Syrian Kurdish militia, the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and its political arm, the Democratic Union Party (PYD). Justifying its decision, Washington said the Syrian opposition fighters backed by Ankara were not organised or numerous enough to take on ISIL.
But the plan alarmed Ankara because the YPG is also the Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a designated terrorist group that had fought a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state, and whose founder, Abdullah Ocalan, was being held in an island prison. A fragile peace process was still under way.
Despite Turkey’s misgivings, the YPG spearheaded a ground campaign backed by US air strikes against ISIL strongholds in Syria, reclaiming vast tracts of territory just across the border from Turkey amid rumblings of Kurdish aspirations for self-governance and even independence.
Amid little sympathy from its allies, who accused Turkey of fuelling the civil war in Syria by turning a blind eye towards the influx of jihadists into the country, Ankara launched operation Euphrates Shield in August 2016 to remove ISIL from key border towns, but also to limit Kurdish expansion west of the Euphrates river. It would help rebuild cities such as Jarablus and Al Bab, creating safe zones for civilians who wished to return to Syria and also installing infrastructure.
Hopes that relations would improve under Donald Trump's administration, however, were dashed when the US said last year that it would now directly arm the YPG, which led an umbrella coalition called the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), ahead of a military offensive into the capital of ISIL’s self-proclaimed caliphate, Raqqa.
Turkey tempered its anger when, in a phone call between Mr Trump and Mr Erdogan, the US president pledged to end its military support of the YPG with the end of the Raqqa campaign.
But once again relations collapsed after an announcement earlier in January by US officials, who said they would train a 30,000-strong force including the YPG that would patrol Syria’s borders, to prevent the re-emergence of ISIL cells.
That was the last straw for Ankara, which accused the US of attempting to form a “terror army” and vowing to crush the YPG. The Afrin offensive was launched on Saturday, less than a week after the American plan became public.
In briefings, Turkish officials say the goals of the campaign are three-fold. The first is to create a 30-km deep safe zone from the border to prevent attacks and harassment of border posts, and potentially to house people returning to Syria. Second, its aim is to significantly weaken the YPG, which Ankara says is 8,000-10,000 strong in an enclave that is home to 600,000 civilians.
Finally, Ankara says it aims to rebuild the area in the vein of the other cities under Euphrates Shield control. But there is little indication that Turkey and its Free Syrian Army (FSA) allies will be welcomed with open arms in the majority Kurdish area. Turkish officials repeatedly say the operation is not aimed at Syria's Kurds, but at the YPG itself.
The opening salvo was a series of artillery strikes from inside the Turkish border on Afrin. Planes then bombed more than 150 targets on the first day and then a ground incursion began.
Turkey is joined in the campaign by factions of the Syrian opposition’s FSA, who accuse the YPG of separatism, displacing local Arabs, and being secretly in league with the Assad regime. But the campaign has ignited fierce debate among the opposition, who argue that Turkey is prioritising its interests over those of the opposition.
The Afrin operation comes despite Turkey being a broker of Syrian peace negotiations along with Russia and Iran. Turkey is also responsible for maintaining a ceasefire in the nearby province of Idlib but a Syrian regime offensive into the province, the last one controlled by the rebels, has been met with little real action by Turkey.
Instead, Turkish officials no longer insist on Mr Al Assad’s ouster in briefings, and foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said he had informed the Syrian government of the Afrin offensive in written correspondence, reinforcing that the threat from the Syrian Kurdish militia, rather than the president's rule, is its top priority in Syria.
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Straightforward ways to reduce sugar in your family's diet
- Ban fruit juice and sodas
- Eat a hearty breakfast that contains fats and wholegrains, such as peanut butter on multigrain toast or full-fat plain yoghurt with whole fruit and nuts, to avoid the need for a 10am snack
- Give young children plain yoghurt with whole fruits mashed into it
- Reduce the number of cakes, biscuits and sweets. Reserve them for a treat
- Don’t eat dessert every day
- Make your own smoothies. Always use the whole fruit to maintain the benefit of its fibre content and don’t add any sweeteners
- Always go for natural whole foods over processed, packaged foods. Ask yourself would your grandmother have eaten it?
- Read food labels if you really do feel the need to buy processed food
- Eat everything in moderation
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The past Palme d'Or winners
2018 Shoplifters, Hirokazu Kore-eda
2017 The Square, Ruben Ostlund
2016 I, Daniel Blake, Ken Loach
2015 Dheepan, Jacques Audiard
2014 Winter Sleep (Kış Uykusu), Nuri Bilge Ceylan
2013 Blue is the Warmest Colour (La Vie d'Adèle: Chapitres 1 et 2), Abdellatif Kechiche, Adele Exarchopoulos and Lea Seydoux
2012 Amour, Michael Haneke
2011 The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick
2010 Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (Lung Bunmi Raluek Chat), Apichatpong Weerasethakul
2009 The White Ribbon (Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte), Michael Haneke
2008 The Class (Entre les murs), Laurent Cantet
The%20specs
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Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League last 16, second leg
Liverpool (0) v Atletico Madrid (1)
Venue: Anfield
Kick-off: Thursday, March 12, midnight
Live: On beIN Sports HD
Qosty Byogaani
Starring: Hani Razmzi, Maya Nasir and Hassan Hosny
Four stars
SCORES
Multiply Titans 81-2 in 12.1 overs
(Tony de Zorzi, 34)
bt Auckland Aces 80 all out in 16 overs
(Shawn von Borg 4-15, Alfred Mothoa 2-11, Tshepo Moreki 2-16).
57%20Seconds
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yallacompare profile
Date of launch: 2014
Founder: Jon Richards, founder and chief executive; Samer Chebab, co-founder and chief operating officer, and Jonathan Rawlings, co-founder and chief financial officer
Based: Media City, Dubai
Sector: Financial services
Size: 120 employees
Investors: 2014: $500,000 in a seed round led by Mulverhill Associates; 2015: $3m in Series A funding led by STC Ventures (managed by Iris Capital), Wamda and Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority; 2019: $8m in Series B funding with the same investors as Series A along with Precinct Partners, Saned and Argo Ventures (the VC arm of multinational insurer Argo Group)
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Venue: Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Date: Sunday, November 25
Asian Cup 2019
Quarter-final
UAE v Australia, Friday, 8pm, Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
The%20specs
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New Zealand 15 British & Irish Lions 15
New Zealand 15
Tries: Laumape, J Barrett
Conversions: B Barrett
Penalties: B Barrett
British & Irish Lions 15
Penalties: Farrell (4), Daly
The specs: 2018 Opel Mokka X
Price, as tested: Dh84,000
Engine: 1.4L, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: Six-speed auto
Power: 142hp at 4,900rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 1,850rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L / 100km
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
'Midnights'
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Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
5 of the most-popular Airbnb locations in Dubai
Bobby Grudziecki, chief operating officer of Frank Porter, identifies the five most popular areas in Dubai for those looking to make the most out of their properties and the rates owners can secure:
• Dubai Marina
The Marina and Jumeirah Beach Residence are popular locations, says Mr Grudziecki, due to their closeness to the beach, restaurants and hotels.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh482 to Dh739
Two bedroom: Dh627 to Dh960
Three bedroom: Dh721 to Dh1,104
• Downtown
Within walking distance of the Dubai Mall, Burj Khalifa and the famous fountains, this location combines business and leisure. “Sure it’s for tourists,” says Mr Grudziecki. “Though Downtown [still caters to business people] because it’s close to Dubai International Financial Centre."
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh497 to Dh772
Two bedroom: Dh646 to Dh1,003
Three bedroom: Dh743 to Dh1,154
• City Walk
The rising star of the Dubai property market, this area is lined with pristine sidewalks, boutiques and cafes and close to the new entertainment venue Coca Cola Arena. “Downtown and Marina are pretty much the same prices,” Mr Grudziecki says, “but City Walk is higher.”
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh524 to Dh809
Two bedroom: Dh682 to Dh1,052
Three bedroom: Dh784 to Dh1,210
• Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Marina’s little brother JLT resides on the other side of Sheikh Zayed road but is still close enough to beachside outlets and attractions. The big selling point for Airbnb renters, however, is that “it’s cheaper than Dubai Marina”, Mr Grudziecki says.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh422 to Dh629
Two bedroom: Dh549 to Dh818
Three bedroom: Dh631 to Dh941
• Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah's proximity to luxury resorts is attractive, especially for big families, says Mr Grudziecki, as Airbnb renters can secure competitive rates on one of the world’s most famous tourist destinations.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh503 to Dh770
Two bedroom: Dh654 to Dh1,002
Three bedroom: Dh752 to Dh1,152
