Former Centcom commander Gen Kenneth McKenzie has said that outright western efforts to support protesters in Iran could have the adverse effect of mobilising enough support for Tehran to allow a brutal crackdown to prevail.
The US commander, who oversaw regional forces until April this year, told a panel at London's Policy Exchange on Thursday that there should be no naivety about the lengths the Iranian leadership would go to protect its grip on power.
“The great act of giving succour to those people in Iran will tend to mobilise elements of the Iranian population against us and will give leverage to the Iranian regime to mobilise against the outside enemy, which has always been a very important part of Iranian politics,” he said.
“I think we need to be very open-eyed and very realistic about what the Iranian regime will do, because their number one priority will be regime self-protection.”
Nazanin Boniadi, and Iranian-born activist now living in the US, had early pleaded for support, saying the current wave of demonstrations was greater in scale than previous movements, including the 2009 protests.
“What the Iranian people want from us [is] global solidarity and to stop turning a blind eye to their suffering in order to fulfil our own political objectives,” she said.
“For 43 years, we've only responded to the symptoms of the Islamic Republic's malign activities with a focus on countering Iran's nuclear ambition.”
Liam Fox, the former UK defence secretary, described the failure to come out in support of protests against the rigged Iranian election in 2009 — a moment that proved to be a turning point in the country's history — “as the lowest moral point in recent western politics”.
Mr Fox called on the UK to proscribe the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group for its regional attacks and to the export of Iranian-made drones by air to the battlefields of Ukraine. In light of this, he questioned the continuance of daily flights to London from Tehran.
“Why are we allowing Iranair to fly into Heathrow every day of the week?” he asked.
“It's time we started to take real measures and I would ban Iran air from coming and using civil aviation space in the United Kingdom.
“We need to take three measures, not signing up to the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal] until it gets tougher, proscribing the IRGC and banning Iran.”
French diplomat Jacques Audibert, a former foreign policy adviser to Francois Hollande and lead negotiator on the JCPOA deal, said the overall deterioration in relations with Iran means he does not expect a new agreement on the nuclear programme any time soon.
The deal was effectively derailed in 2018 when Donald Trump withdrew the US from the agreement, something current President Joe Biden has sought to reverse.
“Today's situation is much more dangerous than four years ago when it has been decided to get out of the certainly not perfect agreement,” he told The National.
Recommending something of a fresh start in talks, he suggested a new name for the accord and bringing back the original objectives.
“Maybe you remember that it was first considered as a first step towards more and more global agreement, including ballistic missiles and including the role of Iran in destabilising the region,” he said.
Gen McKenzie said his Centcom days informed his view of the conventional threat posed by Iran.
“These are genuine real capabilities” he said. “I would argue that, day to day, the possession of those capabilities is perhaps more important to the Iranians than the nuclear file.
“I think the nuclear programmes is something they like the idea of being able to have a nuclear weapon, they like the effect it has on the West when they talk about nuclear weapons.
“A war in the Centcom region would be a fire war, it would not be a war of manoeuvre, would not involve tanks, it would not involve ships to large degree, it would not involve manned aeroplanes — at least on the Iranian side — what it would involve would be missiles, rockets and unmanned aerial systems.”
Gen Mark Carleton-Smyth, chief of the UK General Staff until earlier this year, said Iran was breaking out of conventional deterrence, something with ominous implications for the region.
“Iran today seems less deterred by American conventional capabilities than it once did,” he said.
“It's hard to find amongst the spawning range of crises across the broader Middle East one that doesn't have Iranian fingerprints on it.
“Iran today is clearly not a status quo power. It's embarked on a systematic campaign of exploitation, to fill the vacuums associated with the changing political geometry of the region, some of which is, unfortunately, the existential legacy of our own interventions.”
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
All you need to know about Formula E in Saudi Arabia
What The Saudia Ad Diriyah E-Prix
When Saturday
Where Diriyah in Saudi Arabia
What time Qualifying takes place from 11.50am UAE time through until the Super Pole session, which is due to end at 12.55pm. The race, which will last for 45 minutes, starts at 4.05pm.
Who is competing There are 22 drivers, from 11 teams, on the grid, with each vehicle run solely on electronic power.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
The specs: 2018 Opel Mokka X
Price, as tested: Dh84,000
Engine: 1.4L, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: Six-speed auto
Power: 142hp at 4,900rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 1,850rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L / 100km
The biog:
Favourite book: The Leader Who Had No Title by Robin Sharma
Pet Peeve: Racism
Proudest moment: Graduating from Sorbonne
What puts her off: Dishonesty in all its forms
Happiest period in her life: The beginning of her 30s
Favourite movie: "I have two. The Pursuit of Happiness and Homeless to Harvard"
Role model: Everyone. A child can be my role model
Slogan: The queen of peace, love and positive energy
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
Day 5, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day When Dilruwan Perera dismissed Yasir Shah to end Pakistan’s limp resistance, the Sri Lankans charged around the field with the fevered delirium of a side not used to winning. Trouble was, they had not. The delivery was deemed a no ball. Sri Lanka had a nervy wait, but it was merely a stay of execution for the beleaguered hosts.
Stat of the day – 5 Pakistan have lost all 10 wickets on the fifth day of a Test five times since the start of 2016. It is an alarming departure for a side who had apparently erased regular collapses from their resume. “The only thing I can say, it’s not a mitigating excuse at all, but that’s a young batting line up, obviously trying to find their way,” said Mickey Arthur, Pakistan’s coach.
The verdict Test matches in the UAE are known for speeding up on the last two days, but this was extreme. The first two innings of this Test took 11 sessions to complete. The remaining two were done in less than four. The nature of Pakistan’s capitulation at the end showed just how difficult the transition is going to be in the post Misbah-ul-Haq era.
The Specs
Price, base Dh379,000
Engine 2.9-litre, twin-turbo V6
Gearbox eight-speed automatic
Power 503bhp
Torque 443Nm
On sale now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team's top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
Profile of Foodics
Founders: Ahmad AlZaini and Mosab AlOthmani
Based: Riyadh
Sector: Software
Employees: 150
Amount raised: $8m through seed and Series A - Series B raise ongoing
Funders: Raed Advanced Investment Co, Al-Riyadh Al Walid Investment Co, 500 Falcons, SWM Investment, AlShoaibah SPV, Faith Capital, Technology Investments Co, Savour Holding, Future Resources, Derayah Custody Co.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Match info:
Portugal 1
Ronaldo (4')
Morocco 0
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SPECS
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Three trading apps to try
Sharad Nair recommends three investment apps for UAE residents:
- For beginners or people who want to start investing with limited capital, Mr Nair suggests eToro. “The low fees and low minimum balance requirements make the platform more accessible,” he says. “The user interface is straightforward to understand and operate, while its social element may help ease beginners into the idea of investing money by looking to a virtual community.”
- If you’re an experienced investor, and have $10,000 or more to invest, consider Saxo Bank. “Saxo Bank offers a more comprehensive trading platform with advanced features and insight for more experienced users. It offers a more personalised approach to opening and operating an account on their platform,” he says.
- Finally, StashAway could work for those who want a hands-off approach to their investing. “It removes one of the biggest challenges for novice traders: picking the securities in their portfolio,” Mr Nair says. “A goal-based approach or view towards investing can help motivate residents who may usually shy away from investment platforms.”
