Voters in Ohio during a 2022 local election. Getty Images / AFP
Voters in Ohio during a 2022 local election. Getty Images / AFP
Voters in Ohio during a 2022 local election. Getty Images / AFP
Voters in Ohio during a 2022 local election. Getty Images / AFP

What will happen in the 2024 US presidential election?


Thomas Watkins
  • English
  • Arabic

The 2024 presidential election promises to be as consequential as any other, with everything from the economy, the future of Ukraine, the US stance on climate change and America's role in the Middle East ultimately on the ballot.

Beyond these far-reaching issues, some observers also see another crucial issue at stake: the future of American democracy itself.

And whatever happens on November 5, next year is shaping up to be a particularly odd election season, even by the wacky standards of US politics.

Donald Trump, the current front-runner to become the Republican nominee, faces dozens of state and federal felony charges for allegedly mishandling state secrets, trying to overturn the 2020 election results and a host of other charges that he denies.

But this alleged misconduct only appears to have galvanised his supporters. He is polling neck and neck with President Joe Biden who, barring an unforeseen event that would force him to exit the race, will be running as the Democratic candidate for a second term in the White House.

Here is a preview of 2024's election season:

The candidates

The two main US political parties will dominate the elections, as is always the case, but Green or independent candidates could siphon votes in key states and affect results.

Mr Biden announced in April he is seeking a second term and no serious challenger from the Democratic Party has emerged, despite concerns about his viability as a candidate.

The Republican field is more competitive. Mr Trump holds a commanding lead over his challengers, but former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is making inroads, including in New Hampshire, home to the first primary race of 2024.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was once seen as the next Republican leader, but his disastrous campaign has been punctuated with unforced errors including a perception that he wears high heels inside his cowboy boots to appear taller.

Mr Biden, 81, is the oldest president in US history and frequent stumbles have led critics to say he is declining. But at 77, Mr Trump is no youngster and he has made several verbal gaffes at rallies.

Few Americans are excited about a 2020 rematch between Mr Biden and Mr Trump. AP
Few Americans are excited about a 2020 rematch between Mr Biden and Mr Trump. AP

The primaries

In US politics, presidential hopefuls must win the backing of their political party through a series of state primary elections and more informal caucuses.

The first of these is on January 15 in Iowa, where Republicans will hold caucus meetings to decide who should represent the party. Democrats are caucusing by mail in Iowa and the results won't be released until March.

Iowa holds outsize influence because it is the first caucus location in any election cycle, meaning politicians spend big bucks there. The predominantly white Midwestern state is not seen as a true litmus test however.

New Hampshire voters will select their candidate on January 24. The pace picks up ahead of Super Tuesday on March 5 when almost a third of all available delegates will decide who they want to run.

What do the polls say?

Opinion polls consistently tie Mr Biden and Mr Trump, or else giving the former president the lead.

But US polls are not always reliable, particularly in capturing the intent of younger voters.

Mr Trump has done little to make himself more appealing to the general electorate, and he lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020, while his party underperformed in the 2022 midterms.

He also faces federal and state prosecutions for his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election and for his handling of state secrets, some of which he allegedly kept in a bathroom at his Florida mansion.

How those charges play out is a big unknown for 2024. And Mr Trump has already been barred from the ballot in Colorado under a Civil War-era insurrection clause, though that ruling will probably be overturned by the US Supreme Court.

What are the main issues?

“It's the economy, stupid,” was a phrase coined by Bill Clinton adviser James Carville during Mr Clinton's run for the White House in 1992. Ronald Reagan asked a similar question in 1980 when he challenged Jimmy Carter, asking voters if they thought they were “better off” than they had been four years earlier.

In 2024, too, the economy will be a defining issue for US voters.

Since Mr Biden came into office in 2021, the US economy saw rapid inflation and soaring food and petrol prices. But wages have also grown and inflation is under control, thanks to aggressive rate increases by the Federal Reserve that have also led to mortgage and loan rates hitting 8 per cent.

Financial markets are touching record highs and job growth is better under Mr Biden than under Mr Trump. The question is whether voters will feel good about the economy on Election Day.

Other domestic issues include immigration across the southern US border, abortion and culture war fights.

The Israel-Gaza war is also emerging as a key issue.

Most Americans disapprove of how the Biden administration has handled the conflict and many Arab Americans have vowed not to vote for Mr Biden. But a Trump administration would be even more hawkish for Israel and the former president famously issued a ban on travellers from Muslim countries.

Ukraine's future is also on the line. Mr Biden has vowed to support Kyiv for “as long as it takes”, whereas Mr Trump has repeatedly attacked the war effort and the Nato alliance.

On energy, Republicans have pledged to expand oil and gas production in the US, already the world's second-biggest emitter of carbon dioxide after China. If Mr Trump is elected, he will probably look to reduce America's commitments to reduce greenhouse gases.

Democracy in the US

Mr Trump, who never conceded his 2020 loss to Mr Biden and who allegedly conspired to overturn the election results, has said he will rule like a dictator during the first day of a second term.

Mr Biden has portrayed his rival as an existential threat to US democracy and cited that as one reason he is running again.

Donald Trump’s legal woes – in pictures

  • Mr Trump prays with a pastor and others at Versailles restaurant in Miami after his arraignment on felony charges. AP
    Mr Trump prays with a pastor and others at Versailles restaurant in Miami after his arraignment on felony charges. AP
  • A man protests outside a Miami, Florida, federal courthouse on June 13 as former president Donald Trump is arraigned on dozens of charges related to his handling of classified information. AFP
    A man protests outside a Miami, Florida, federal courthouse on June 13 as former president Donald Trump is arraigned on dozens of charges related to his handling of classified information. AFP
  • Trump supporters outside the courthouse in Miami. AP
    Trump supporters outside the courthouse in Miami. AP
  • Mr Trump's personal aide Walt Nauta was also charged in the classified documents case in Miami. AFP
    Mr Trump's personal aide Walt Nauta was also charged in the classified documents case in Miami. AFP
  • Mr Trump during his Miami arraignment. AP
    Mr Trump during his Miami arraignment. AP
  • People protest against Mr Trump during his arraignment in Miami. AFP
    People protest against Mr Trump during his arraignment in Miami. AFP
  • A courtroom sketch of Mr Trump during the Miami arraignment. Reuters
    A courtroom sketch of Mr Trump during the Miami arraignment. Reuters
  • Mr Trump arrives for his arraignment at Manhattan Criminal Court on April 4 in New York. AFP
    Mr Trump arrives for his arraignment at Manhattan Criminal Court on April 4 in New York. AFP
  • In the case in New York, Mr Trump has pleaded not guilty to dozens of felony charges stemming from hush-money payments made during his 2016 presidential election campaign. AP
    In the case in New York, Mr Trump has pleaded not guilty to dozens of felony charges stemming from hush-money payments made during his 2016 presidential election campaign. AP
  • In a separate civil case, Mr Trump was found liable on May 9 for the sexual abuse of former magazine columnist E Jean Carroll. AFP
    In a separate civil case, Mr Trump was found liable on May 9 for the sexual abuse of former magazine columnist E Jean Carroll. AFP
  • A protester dressed as the former president outside the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse. Reuters
    A protester dressed as the former president outside the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse. Reuters
  • Trump opponents gather as he is arraigned in New York on April 4. Getty / AFP
    Trump opponents gather as he is arraigned in New York on April 4. Getty / AFP
  • Pro-Trump protesters storm the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in Washington. AP
    Pro-Trump protesters storm the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in Washington. AP
In numbers

1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:

  • 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
  • 150 tonnes to landfill
  • 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal

800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal

Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year

25 staff on site

 

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees

Director: Kaouther Ben Hania

Rating: 4/5

Global state-owned investor ranking by size

1.

United States

2.

China

3.

UAE

4.

Japan

5

Norway

6.

Canada

7.

Singapore

8.

Australia

9.

Saudi Arabia

10.

South Korea

SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20M3%2C%208-core%20CPU%2C%20up%20to%2010-core%20CPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2013.6-inch%20Liquid%20Retina%2C%202560%20x%201664%2C%20224ppi%2C%20500%20nits%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20wide%20colour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F16%2F24GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%20%2F%201%2F2TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Thunderbolt%203%2FUSB-4%20(2)%2C%203.5mm%20audio%2C%20Touch%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%206E%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2052.6Wh%20lithium-polymer%2C%20up%20to%2018%20hours%2C%20MagSafe%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECamera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201080p%20FaceTime%20HD%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Support%20for%20Apple%20ProRes%2C%20HDR%20with%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%20HDR10%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAudio%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204-speaker%20system%2C%20wide%20stereo%2C%20support%20for%20Dolby%20Atmos%2C%20Spatial%20Audio%20and%20dynamic%20head%20tracking%20(with%20AirPods)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Midnight%2C%20silver%2C%20space%20grey%2C%20starlight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MacBook%20Air%2C%2030W%2F35W%20dual-port%2F70w%20power%20adapter%2C%20USB-C-to-MagSafe%20cable%2C%202%20Apple%20stickers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh4%2C599%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol

Power: 154bhp

Torque: 250Nm

Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option 

Price: From Dh79,600

On sale: Now

What is a robo-adviser?

Robo-advisers use an online sign-up process to gauge an investor’s risk tolerance by feeding information such as their age, income, saving goals and investment history into an algorithm, which then assigns them an investment portfolio, ranging from more conservative to higher risk ones.

These portfolios are made up of exchange traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to indices such as US and global equities, fixed-income products like bonds, though exposure to real estate, commodity ETFs or gold is also possible.

Investing in ETFs allows robo-advisers to offer fees far lower than traditional investments, such as actively managed mutual funds bought through a bank or broker. Investors can buy ETFs directly via a brokerage, but with robo-advisers they benefit from investment portfolios matched to their risk tolerance as well as being user friendly.

Many robo-advisers charge what are called wrap fees, meaning there are no additional fees such as subscription or withdrawal fees, success fees or fees for rebalancing.

DUBAI%20BLING%3A%20EPISODE%201
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENetflix%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKris%20Fade%2C%20Ebraheem%20Al%20Samadi%2C%20Zeina%20Khoury%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Spec%20sheet
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.7%22%20Retina%20HD%2C%201334%20x%20750%2C%20625%20nits%2C%201400%3A1%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20P3%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EChip%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20A15%20Bionic%2C%206-core%20CPU%2C%204-core%20GPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECamera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012MP%2C%20f%2F1.8%2C%205x%20digital%20zoom%2C%20Smart%20HDR%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%2B%40%2024%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20full%20HD%2B%40%2030%2F60fps%2C%20HD%2B%40%2030%20fps%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EFront%20camera%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7MP%2C%20f%2F2.2%2C%20Smart%20HDR%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%3B%20HD%20video%2B%40%2030fps%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Up%20to%2015%20hours%20video%2C%2050%20hours%20audio%3B%2050%25%20fast%20charge%20in%2030%20minutes%20with%2020W%20charger%3B%20wireless%20charging%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Touch%20ID%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP67%2C%20dust%2C%20water%20resistant%20up%20to%201m%20for%2030%20minutes%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh1%2C849%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6

Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher:  Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5

PROFILE OF HALAN

Started: November 2017

Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Sector: transport and logistics

Size: 150 employees

Investment: approximately $8 million

Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar

Dunki
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rajkumar%20Hirani%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Taapsee%20Pannu%2C%20Vikram%20Kochhar%20and%20Anil%20Grover%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo

Power: 258hp from 5,000-6,500rpm

Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,000rpm

Transmission: Eight-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 6.1L/100km

Price: from Dh362,500

On sale: now

EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS

Estijaba – 8001717 –  number to call to request coronavirus testing

Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111

Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre

Emirates airline – 600555555

Etihad Airways – 600555666

Ambulance – 998

Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries

Labour dispute

The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.


- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law 

THE SPECS

Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine 

Power: 420kW

Torque: 780Nm

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Price: From Dh1,350,000

On sale: Available for preorder now

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo 

 Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua

 Based: Dubai, UAE

 Number of employees: 28

 Sector: Financial services

 Investment: $9.5m

 Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors. 

 
Updated: December 21, 2023, 3:00 AM