How Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse could affect US economy and global trade


Sara Ruthven
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After the collapse of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge this week, questions remain on the effect its absence will have on the city and regional and global supply chains.

Maryland Governor Wes Moore on Tuesday stressed the economic impact after the collapse, saying the port indirectly employs more than 100,000 people and imports about 51 million tonnes of foreign cargo.

More vehicles and agricultural equipment pass through Baltimore's port than any other in the US, Mr Moore said.

“Between $100 million and $200 million of value comes through port every day and about $2 million in wages are at stake every day and that's one of the areas we're most concerned about,” Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg said on Wednesday.

The port is not the largest on the East Coast but it is closer to the Midwest region, known for its vehicle production, than any other and the ripple effects on the industry could last for months.

According to the Maryland government, it is the ninth largest US port for processing international cargo.

But experts say that while it is sure to have an effect on the economy of the city and the state, it is unlikely to have a large impact on the wider US economy.

“We don’t anticipate that the disruptions to trade or transportation will be visible in US GDP [gross domestic product], and the implications for inflation are minimal,” independent economic advisory company Oxford Economics said in a release.

It noted that while “there will likely be some temporary disruptions to certain industries, including auto makers”, they would probably do little to affect the overall economy.

“A prolonged disruption could lengthen delivery times more than we anticipate and enough to leave a mark on our US supply-chain stress index via the transportation or pricing components,” the report said.

Witnesses heard loud boom before ship struck bridge in Baltimore – video

The port has also become increasingly important to US retailers and manufacturers seeking to diversify their supply networks and bring goods closer to customers, Jonathan Gold, a vice president at the National Retail Federation, told AP.

“Everybody is trying to figure out the impact of the supply chain” from the loss of the bridge, said Mr Gold.

In addition to its importance to US trade, the Baltimore port is also key to international commerce. It is one of the biggest US ports for coal exports and also exports liquefied natural gas to Europe.

The bridge collapse is a “stark reminder” of the fragility of US infrastructure, said Christian Roeloffs, cofounder and chief executive of Container xChange, an online global container logistics platform.

As we navigate the aftermath, we are reminded that the container logistics industry centres around the critical need for robust risk management and resilience in supply chain operations,” Mr Roeloffs said.

“This incident serves as a reminder that infrastructure vulnerabilities can lead to disruptions, and being prepared with flexible, adaptive strategies is essential for maintaining continuity in the face of challenges.”

Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse in Baltimore – in pictures

  • A satellite image of the Dali container ship and sections of the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland. Reuters
    A satellite image of the Dali container ship and sections of the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland. Reuters
  • People gather for a vigil at Mount Olive Baptist Church in Dundalk, Maryland. AP
    People gather for a vigil at Mount Olive Baptist Church in Dundalk, Maryland. AP
  • The Dali cargo ship ran into the bridge, leading to its collapse on March 26. AFP
    The Dali cargo ship ran into the bridge, leading to its collapse on March 26. AFP
  • News crews and residents gather along the shoreline. Rescuers pulled two people from the Patapsco River but were searching for at least seven more. AFP
    News crews and residents gather along the shoreline. Rescuers pulled two people from the Patapsco River but were searching for at least seven more. AFP
  • Jesus Campos speaks about the work he and his co-workers normally do to repair the Francis Scott Key Bridge. AFP
    Jesus Campos speaks about the work he and his co-workers normally do to repair the Francis Scott Key Bridge. AFP
  • Mr Scott, centre, hugs an attendee during a vigil for victims of the bridge collapse at the Mount Olive Baptist Church in Baltimore. AFP
    Mr Scott, centre, hugs an attendee during a vigil for victims of the bridge collapse at the Mount Olive Baptist Church in Baltimore. AFP
  • Baltimore Police commissioner Richard Worley, centre, Mayor Brandon Scott, right, and Fire Department chief James Wallace hold a press conference. AFP
    Baltimore Police commissioner Richard Worley, centre, Mayor Brandon Scott, right, and Fire Department chief James Wallace hold a press conference. AFP
  • Rescuers gather on the shore of the Patapsco River for an operation authorities described as a 'mass casualty, multi-agency rescue'. EPA
    Rescuers gather on the shore of the Patapsco River for an operation authorities described as a 'mass casualty, multi-agency rescue'. EPA
  • Motorway alerts warn drivers about the incident in Baltimore. Reuters
    Motorway alerts warn drivers about the incident in Baltimore. Reuters
  • A number of workers were carrying out repairs when the Dali hit the bridge. Bloomberg
    A number of workers were carrying out repairs when the Dali hit the bridge. Bloomberg
  • The bridge collapsed on top of the vessel. EPA
    The bridge collapsed on top of the vessel. EPA
  • A large lorry was crossing the bridge when it collapsed, fire department officials said. Reuters
    A large lorry was crossing the bridge when it collapsed, fire department officials said. Reuters
  • The Francis Scott Key Bridge was the world's third-longest continuous truss bridge. Getty Images
    The Francis Scott Key Bridge was the world's third-longest continuous truss bridge. Getty Images

The incident comes amid rising pressure on the shipping industry as attacks by Yemen's Houthis continue to force ships to take longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Red Sea.

Most recently, at the weekend, a Chinese commercial ship crossing the area was hit by a barrage of Houthi missiles.

This, in addition to continuing bottlenecks in the Panama Canal, could lengthen delivery times and increase costs for companies.

“The pause in maritime traffic at the Port of Baltimore adds one more point of pressure for trade in the region,” Simona Stan, professor of marketing at the University of Montana, wrote in The Conversation.

“This may lead more shippers that have a choice to send more freight through West Coast ports, which have not suffered much from the Red Sea attacks and Panama problems.”

Unlike the Red Sea attacks and the Covid-19 pandemic, however, she projected the fallout from the bridge collapse will be temporary.

“From a supply chain perspective, this was a freak accident. It’s dramatic, it’s graphic, and it forces people to pay attention to the issue,” Ms Stan wrote.

The Bio

Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
Favourite documentary: Chasing Coral by Jeff Orlowski. It's a good reality check about one of the most valued ecosystems for humanity

Name: Peter Dicce

Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics

Favourite sport: soccer

Favourite team: Bayern Munich

Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer

Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates 

 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

UPI facts

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Islamophobia definition

A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.

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Tips to stay safe during hot weather
  • Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
  • Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
  • Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
  • Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
  • Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
  • Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
  • Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
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Updated: March 29, 2024, 1:42 PM